HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

VIRTUAL

VIRTUAL-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-virtual · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.49%
realized vol (ann.)
63.93%
max drawdown
1.32%
sharpe
-10.84
ulcer index
0.49%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.40%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1425.66
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.16%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.98
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-598.07
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.98
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.49%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -1.49%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-virtual/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.629
24h Δ · live
-1.49%
24h vol · live
$1.1M
VIRTUAL · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.6394 · σ=0.0066 · range [0.6283, 0.6518] · R²=0.576▼ FALLING -1.92%σ NORMAL 1.03%LAST 0.62860.65180.64590.64000.63410.6283μ = 0.6394max 0.6518min 0.6283dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.58μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.63
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,736,872 · μ=69474.9 · σ=54908.7 · CV=0.79FADING -51% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=7052,092104,184156,276208,368μ = 69475208,368.150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 208368 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.0s
$mark $
$0.6286
$mid $
$0.6289
◉prev-day close
$0.6381
Δ24h Δ %
-1.489%
$24h vol $
$1.11M
◐open interest $
$5.95M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.6394 · σ=0.0066 · range [0.6283, 0.6518] · R²=0.576▼ FALLING -1.92%σ NORMAL 1.03%LAST 0.62860.65180.64590.64000.63410.6283μ = 0.6394max 0.6518min 0.6283dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.58μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.6286 · 24h -1.49% · range $[0.6283, 0.6518]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.6243, 0.6563] · σ=0.0066 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=41%BEARISH -1.49%CLOSE 0.6286 vs OPEN 0.6381 (-1.49%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.62860.65630.64830.64030.63230.6243μ close = 0.6394O0.638 H0.645 L0.638 C0.641 (+0.44%)O0.638 H0.645 L0.638 C0.641 (+0.44%)O0.641 H0.645 L0.638 C0.639 (-0.24%)O0.641 H0.645 L0.638 C0.639 (-0.24%)O0.640 H0.643 L0.638 C0.641 (+0.19%)O0.640 H0.643 L0.638 C0.641 (+0.19%)O0.641 H0.650 L0.641 C0.649 (+1.18%)O0.641 H0.650 L0.641 C0.649 (+1.18%)O0.649 H0.656 L0.646 C0.652 (+0.48%)O0.649 H0.656 L0.646 C0.652 (+0.48%)O0.652 H0.653 L0.638 C0.645 (-1.00%)O0.652 H0.653 L0.638 C0.645 (-1.00%)O0.645 H0.647 L0.639 C0.642 (-0.50%)O0.645 H0.647 L0.639 C0.642 (-0.50%)O0.641 H0.644 L0.639 C0.642 (+0.05%)O0.641 H0.644 L0.639 C0.642 (+0.05%)O0.642 H0.645 L0.640 C0.641 (-0.12%)O0.642 H0.645 L0.640 C0.641 (-0.12%)O0.641 H0.642 L0.640 C0.642 (+0.15%)O0.641 H0.642 L0.640 C0.642 (+0.15%)O0.642 H0.649 L0.639 C0.647 (+0.76%)O0.642 H0.649 L0.639 C0.647 (+0.76%)O0.647 H0.647 L0.643 C0.643 (-0.49%)O0.647 H0.647 L0.643 C0.643 (-0.49%)O0.643 H0.647 L0.642 C0.642 (-0.19%)O0.643 H0.647 L0.642 C0.642 (-0.19%)O0.643 H0.645 L0.641 C0.643 (-0.05%)O0.643 H0.645 L0.641 C0.643 (-0.05%)O0.643 H0.647 L0.641 C0.644 (+0.10%)O0.643 H0.647 L0.641 C0.644 (+0.10%)O0.643 H0.646 L0.640 C0.641 (-0.28%)O0.643 H0.646 L0.640 C0.641 (-0.28%)O0.641 H0.646 L0.641 C0.644 (+0.47%)O0.641 H0.646 L0.641 C0.644 (+0.47%)-1.5%O0.644 H0.644 L0.633 C0.634 (-1.52%)O0.644 H0.644 L0.633 C0.634 (-1.52%)O0.634 H0.635 L0.629 C0.634 (+0.06%)O0.634 H0.635 L0.629 C0.634 (+0.06%)O0.634 H0.637 L0.631 C0.632 (-0.33%)O0.634 H0.637 L0.631 C0.632 (-0.33%)O0.632 H0.633 L0.627 C0.628 (-0.56%)O0.632 H0.633 L0.627 C0.628 (-0.56%)O0.628 H0.633 L0.626 C0.630 (+0.23%)O0.628 H0.633 L0.626 C0.630 (+0.23%)O0.630 H0.634 L0.624 C0.632 (+0.39%)O0.630 H0.634 L0.624 C0.632 (+0.39%)O0.632 H0.634 L0.629 C0.629 (-0.47%)O0.632 H0.634 L0.629 C0.629 (-0.47%)O0.629 H0.629 L0.629 C0.629 (-0.06%)O0.629 H0.629 L0.629 C0.629 (-0.06%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,736,872 · μ=69474.9 · σ=54908.7 · CV=0.79FADING -51% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=7052,092104,184156,276208,368μ = 6947588,573.1 · 42.5% peak88,573.1 · 42.5% peak128,717.6 · 61.8% peak128,717.6 · 61.8% peak153,175.7 · 73.5% peak153,175.7 · 73.5% peak208,368.1208,368.1 · 100.0% peak208,368.1 · 100.0% peak78,489.2 · 37.7% peak78,489.2 · 37.7% peak202,360.5 · 97.1% peak202,360.5 · 97.1% peak85,447 · 41.0% peak85,447 · 41.0% peak76,334.7 · 36.6% peak76,334.7 · 36.6% peak40,239.6 · 19.3% peak40,239.6 · 19.3% peak46,688.8 · 22.4% peak46,688.8 · 22.4% peak41,252.4 · 19.8% peak41,252.4 · 19.8% peak16,662.2 · 8.0% peak16,662.2 · 8.0% peak20,756.7 · 10.0% peak20,756.7 · 10.0% peak35,933.1 · 17.2% peak35,933.1 · 17.2% peak26,899.2 · 12.9% peak26,899.2 · 12.9% peak26,794.1 · 12.9% peak26,794.1 · 12.9% peak49,951.9 · 24.0% peak49,951.9 · 24.0% peak64,134.8 · 30.8% peak64,134.8 · 30.8% peak99,195.7 · 47.6% peak99,195.7 · 47.6% peak28,601.3 · 13.7% peak28,601.3 · 13.7% peak34,337.1 · 16.5% peak34,337.1 · 16.5% peak28,121.3 · 13.5% peak28,121.3 · 13.5% peak103,730.4 · 49.8% peak103,730.4 · 49.8% peak50,553.1 · 24.3% peak50,553.1 · 24.3% peak1,554.3 · 0.7% peak1,554.3 · 0.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1736872 · peak 208368 · CV 0.79

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0010 · σ=0.0052 · skew=-0.32 (symmetric) · kurt=0.71 (mesokurtic)54310 1-144.93bpbin -144.93bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -144.93bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-121.89bp 1-98.84bpbin -98.84bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -98.84bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-75.80bp 4-52.76bpbin -52.76bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -52.76bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 4-29.72bpbin -29.72bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -29.72bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 4-6.68bpbin -6.68bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -6.68bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 516.36bpbin 16.36bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 16.36bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 339.41bpbin 39.41bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 39.41bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 162.45bpbin 62.45bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 62.45bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak85.49bp 1108.53bpbin 108.53bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 108.53bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.32 · kurt=1.02 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.6286
Mid price
$0.6289
24h change
-1.49%
Mark–mid spread
4.77 bps
Prev-day close
$0.6381

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.02)
μ MEAN0.6394$95% CI: [0.6368$, 0.6420$]
σ STD DEV0.0066$σ² = 0.432×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.03%
med MEDIAN0.6414$Q₁ 0.6339$ · Q₃ 0.6434$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0235$ · IQR 0.0095$ (1.349σ→0.0089$)
min 0.6283$Q₁ 0.6339$med 0.6414$Q₃ 0.6434$max 0.6518$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.304approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.017platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.31
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.93
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.58
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-13.34
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.080613%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.142
σᵣ STD / h0.565784%σ²ᵣ = 0.320×10⁻⁴ · CV = 7.02×
σ ANNUALISED52.95%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.566%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-13.34negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-12.82downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.34approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.57leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.96
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-706.17%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.94%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.939%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.437%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.286%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.60%16h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.939%VaR₉₉−1.437%ES₉₅−1.286%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 16h duration
PEAK65.18$
−3.60% drawdown over 16h
62.83$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.37× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.53× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.74% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
38.2 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.123 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.6508
Bollinger MA
$0.6382
Bollinger lower
$0.6255

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.029within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.180lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.833strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.593significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.833
H = 0.833STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.029k=2-0.180k=3-0.074k=4-0.139k=5-0.1420+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.59)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.70very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.59)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.11M
Open interest (USD)
$5.95M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.19x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.20% · worst -1.56% · typical |Δ| 0.42%MILD BEARISH -1.93%BEST+1.20%14hWORST-1.56%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.42%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.93%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.27% · Σ -2.20%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.22% · Σ +1.74%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.18% · Σ -1.47%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.93%+1.68%-1.99%-0.22% · 12h-0.22% · 12h-0.22%12h0.21% · 13h0.21% · 13h0.21%13h1.20% · 14h1.20% · 14h1.20%14h★ BEST0.49% · 15h0.49% · 15h0.49%15h-1.01% · 16h-1.01% · 16h-1.01%16h-0.54% · 17h-0.54% · 17h-0.54%17h-0.00% · 18h-0.00% · 18h-0.00%18h-0.12% · 19h-0.12% · 19h-0.12%19h0.15% · 20h0.15% · 20h0.15%20h0.73% · 21h0.73% · 21h0.73%21h-0.49% · 22h-0.49% · 22h-0.49%22h-0.19% · 23h-0.19% · 23h-0.19%23h0.08% · 00h0.08% · 00h0.08%00h0.13% · 01h0.13% · 01h0.13%01h-0.33% · 02h-0.33% · 02h-0.33%02h0.43% · 03h0.43% · 03h0.43%03h-1.56% · 04h-1.56% · 04h-1.56%04h▼ WORST-0.04% · 05h-0.04% · 05h-0.04%05h-0.38% · 06h-0.38% · 06h-0.38%06h-0.52% · 07h-0.52% · 07h-0.52%07h0.25% · 08h0.25% · 08h0.25%08h0.36% · 09h0.36% · 09h0.36%09h-0.47% · 10h-0.47% · 10h-0.47%10h-0.08% · 11h-0.08% · 11h-0.08%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.74%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 1.20% · worst -1.56% · typical |Δ| 0.416%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.95%)FINAL-1.95%MAX DD-3.63%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.69%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9805 · peak 1.0169 · range [0.9800, 1.0169]1.01690.9800break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0169UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.63% · moderate0%-3.63%▼ TROUGH -3.63%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.63%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.22%bar 2-3 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.63%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9805 (-1.95%) · max DD -3.63% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-18.60 · σ=20.90UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -34.97 (-0.78σ vs μ)56.7028.350.00-28.35-56.70μ = -18.602.602.606.966.960.310.31-30.50-30.50-20.88-20.88-9.34-9.342.972.975.985.9815.6315.63-2.64-2.64-17.09-17.09-32.14-32.14-28.74-28.74-39.62-39.62-56.70-56.70-39.79-39.79-42.29-42.29-33.10-33.10-34.97-34.97v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -34.966 · range [-56.70, 15.63] · μ -18.598 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=53.4637 · σ=15.0481 · range [31.6376, 73.4643] · R²=0.050▼ FALLING -52.01%σ EXTREME 28.15%LAST 35.255773.464363.007652.550942.094231.6376μ = 53.4637max 73.4643min 31.6376dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 35.26% · range [31.64%, 73.46%] · μ 53.46% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.167 · σ=0.283MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.063 (+0.37σ vs μ)0.6030.3010.000-0.301-0.603μ = -0.1670.2700.2700.2950.2950.2150.215-0.197-0.1970.3130.313-0.214-0.214-0.213-0.213-0.232-0.232-0.213-0.213-0.341-0.341-0.213-0.213-0.345-0.345-0.449-0.449-0.545-0.545-0.603-0.603-0.539-0.539-0.032-0.032-0.072-0.072-0.063-0.063v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.063 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
2.9402
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2299
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.3720
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7976
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.8335
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8085
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.7165
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4737
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6622
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0170
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.2902
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7717
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.912 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.30e-5 · top T=6.00h (26.8%) · top-3 cover 65.6%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.1e-48.0e-55.3e-52.7e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.75e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.75e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.69e-5 · 6.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.69e-5 · 6.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.28e-6 · 2.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.28e-6 · 2.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.06e-4 · 26.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.06e-4 · 26.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.59e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.59e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.70e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.70e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.05e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.05e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.82e-5 · 24.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.82e-5 · 24.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.82e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.82e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.67e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.67e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.88e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.88e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.51e-5 · 13.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.51e-5 · 13.9% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=6.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 6.00h (freq 0.167) · concentrates 26.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.957e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-66.72×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -50.97400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.022
annualized -50.97
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -40.51σ ann 61% · Sortino -32.92 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-4861%-3874%-2888%-1901%-914%73%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)60.7%Ann. vol σ-4051.0%Sharpe (ann)-3292.1%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.6000.6140.6290.6430.6570.672t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:00:20 UTC
Snapshot age
5.0s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:00:25 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
e50189611daf92af8592b1cc6322702d6d1ce6e35f0498ff2ef5d533ba537b9d · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$18.39K
bid $3.59K · ask $14.80K
Depth within 10bp
$50.81K
bid $20.71K · ask $30.10K
Depth within 50bp
$65.34K
bid $33.20K · ask $32.14K
Mid price
0.628860
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.017
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.098
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-virtual/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.6290072.34bp0.6290203FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.6290813.52bp0.6291207FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.6292295.87bp0.62950020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.6286782.90bp0.6286602FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.6285524.90bp0.6284709FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.6282889.10bp0.62800020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-virtual/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.74M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-virtual/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.063 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$772.61K
real volume
Sell weight
$875.69K
real volume
Net delta
$103.08K
sellers net
Imbalance
-6.25%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
6.3%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-virtual/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.47% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z4.0h0.644200→0.6282702.473%5
#22026-06-13 16:00:00Z3.0h0.651760→0.6409601.657%4
#32026-06-13 23:00:00Z1.0h0.646590→0.6422200.676%2

/api/asset/hl-virtual/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
60.72%
σ per bar = 0.000265
Mean return (annualised)
-2459.58%
μ per bar = -0.000005
Sharpe (rf=0)
-40.51
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.31%
peak 0.65 → trough 0.62 over 3209 bars

/api/asset/hl-virtual/risk · same metrics, JSON