POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · CRYPTO

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 15?

YES · live

100.0¢

NO · live

0.1¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · bitcoin-above-54k-on-june-15-2026 · fresh · feed 0s old

realized vol (ann.)

—

max drawdown

—

sharpe

—

ulcer index

—

RMS drawdown

pain index

—

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

—

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

—

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

—

upside/downside

roll spread

—

implied (price-only)

bars used

insufficient

spread

—

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%

insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-bitcoin-above-54k-on-june-15-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →

LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH11ms⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

100.0¢

NO · live

0.1¢

YES price · live 24h

25 ticks · last 99.95¢

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.00% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.006 / 1.00 bits (1%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

100.0%100.0¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp

0.1%0.1¢2000.00×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp

Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live

Σ 15bp moved · peak 15bp · n=24 ticks

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

11ms

▲YES mid

99.95¢ (99.95%)

▼NO mid

0.05¢ (0.05%)

ΣΣ sides

100.00%

⚖arb gap

0.000pp

$24h vol $

$38.5k

≋liquidity $

$52.7k

◳history points

25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid

25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.95¢

NO price · CLOB mid

25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.05¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments

n=24

Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)

reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics

SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-1.74)

μ MEAN99.93¢95% CI: [99.90¢, 99.95¢]

σ STD DEV0.06ppσ² = 31.500×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.06%

med MEDIAN99.95¢Q₁ 99.95¢ · Q₃ 99.95¢

FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.15pp · IQR 0.00pp (1.349σ→0.08pp)

SKEWNESS · G₁-1.745left-skewed

−3−10+1+3

EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.092leptokurtic · fat tails

−30+2+4+6

μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.43

σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.00

range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.67

μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics

TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24

ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.045within white-noise band

ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.047lag-2 not significant

H · HURST EXPONENT0.500random-walk

OLS TREND · t-STAT+3.947significant @ α=0.05

HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]random-walk · H = 0.500

H = 0.500RANDOM-WALK

0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending

AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags

OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.95)

−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject

REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis

PREDICTABILITY · score 0.05low · ~ unpredictable|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic

TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.95)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58

ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity

MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

MARKET ID2471056

SLUGbitcoin-above-54k-on-june-15-2026

CATEGORYCrypto

TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (100¢)

PRIMARY · YES99.95¢implied prob 99.95% · decimal odds 1.00×

COUNTER · NO0.05¢implied prob 0.05% · decimal odds 2000.00×

99.95¢

0.05¢

Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

0%50%100% · target110%

Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp

24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE

24H VOLUME38.45k USD 24h

LIQUIDITY52.69k USD

MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient

PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.999 · entropy 0.006 bits

LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin

Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage

FAIR MARKET · no edge

Probability scale (YES)

0%25%50%
fair75%100%

Implied decimal odds

YES1.00×(100¢)NO2000.00×(0¢)

Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%

K* full

0.00%

½K half

0.00%

¼K quarter

0.00%

Entropy H(p̂) = 0.006 bits (1% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured

0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)

Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding

K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection

⏱ URGENCY · HIGHresolves 2026-06-15 16:00 UTC

0days

20hrs

41min

YES →$1.00(P = 100.0%)

NO →$0.00(P = 0.0%)

current: $0.9995 · expected return per side: $0.00 on YES hit · $1.00 on NO hit

Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 0.275 pp/day

now20.69h left

0.275 pp/day×1.00

−25%15.52h left

0.317 pp/day×1.15

−50%10.34h left

0.389 pp/day×1.41

−75%5.17h left

0.550 pp/day×2.00

−90%2.07h left

0.869 pp/day×3.16

θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down

1 up bars · 0 down · best 0.15% · worst 0.00% · typical |Δ| 0.006%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough

final equity 1.0015 (0.15%) · max DD 0.00% · time-under-water 0/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative

latest 0.000 · range [0.00, 38.21] · μ 8.044 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window

Rolling annualised volatility (%)

latest 0.00% · range [0.00%, 5.73%] · μ 1.21% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)

Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)

latest 0.000 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance

2 of 5 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·3 pass·1 n/a·α = 0.05

𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC

672.0000

p-VALUE (log scale)

< 0.0001

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC

0.1940

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.9983

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC

-2.4721

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.1288

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

N/An/a

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC

—

p-VALUE (log scale)

—

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC

0.4871

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.0446

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC

-0.0427

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.9660

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n

dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 8.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.125e-6

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 0.9 d · σ/bar 0.031pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.14ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0005 · n = 25⚠ low confidence · n < 100

μ per bar

+0.006pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.031pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.15pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move1d

0.14pp

σ × √20.688834999999997

Terminal variancebinary

0.0005

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

100.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.04pp · ES₉₅ 0.06pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.006pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.15pp · unique ratio 0.08⊘ disabled · n < 30

VaR 95%

0.04pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.06pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

0.0pp

peak 99.8¢ → trough 99.8¢

Median step

0.15pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

100.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

1.001

total return per $1

AmericanUS

-199900

risk $199900 to win $100

FractionalUK

0.00 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$0.05

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.006 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.006 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

0.00 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

10.97 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot): gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history): clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID: 103808654901786051505321963539299658956427250791695628614469015710563582713223
NO token ID: 86706076743854099476570226671109335860479444685009638597001021569100107849832
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 19:18:40 UTC
Snapshot age: 11ms
History points: 25 CLOB mids
Page rendered: 2026-06-14 19:18:40 UTC
Storage policy: no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation: b42ca845ecee774984d035130368a1065b85771257e4ed4f73725a7fc4dbf7dc · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDSpain89.6¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?0¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,825 HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,666.9 HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.69

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Crypto

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES

Depth within 1bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Depth within 5bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Depth within 10bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Depth within 50bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Mid price

—

(best bid + best ask) / 2

Spread

—

(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid

Imbalance (whole book)

+1.000

bid-heavy

Imbalance (top-5)

+1.000

bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-bitcoin-above-54k-on-june-15-2026/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

Side	Notional	Avg fill	Slippage	Worst fill	Levels	Status
BUY	$1.00K	—	—	—	—	ERR
BUY	$10.00K	—	—	—	—	ERR
BUY	$100.00K	—	—	—	—	ERR
SELL	$1.00K	—	—	—	—	ERR
SELL	$10.00K	—	—	—	—	ERR
SELL	$100.00K	—	—	—	—	ERR

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 25 bars

Realized vol (annualised)

—

σ per bar = 0.000307

Mean return (annualised)

—

μ per bar = 0.000063

Sharpe (rf=0)

—

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

0.00%

peak 1.00 → trough 1.00 over 0 bars

/api/asset/pm-bitcoin-above-54k-on-june-15-2026/risk · same metrics, JSON