POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · GERMANY VS. CURAÇAO - HALFTIME RESULT

Curaçao leading at halftime?

YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
100.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-halftime-result-away · fresh · feed 0s old
realized vol (ann.)
—
max drawdown
—
sharpe
—
ulcer index
—
RMS drawdown
pain index
—
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
—
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
—
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
—
implied (price-only)
bars used
0
insufficient
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
  • insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-halftime-result-away/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH106ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
100.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0263 · σ=0.0104 · range [0.0005, 0.0350] · R²=0.511▼ FALLING -98.57%σ EXTREME 39.42%LAST 0.00050.03500.02640.01780.00910.0005μ = 0.0263max 0.0350min 0.0005dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.51μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.05¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.1%NO 100.0%NO100.0%99.95¢ · odds 1/1.00
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.006 / 1.00 bits (1%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.1%0.1¢2000.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
100.0%100.0¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=915 · μ=38.1 · σ=64.0 · CV=1.68BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=17079158236315μ = 3831550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 915bp moved · peak 315bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
106ms
▲YES mid
0.05¢ (0.05%)
▼NO mid
99.95¢ (99.95%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$122.2k
≋liquidity $
$130.5k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0263 · σ=0.0104 · range [0.0005, 0.0350] · R²=0.511▼ FALLING -98.57%σ EXTREME 39.42%LAST 0.00050.03500.02640.01780.00910.0005μ = 0.0263max 0.0350min 0.0005dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.51μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.05¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9737 · σ=0.0104 · range [0.9650, 0.9995] · R²=0.511▲ RISING +3.58%σ NORMAL 1.07%LAST 0.99950.99950.99090.98230.97360.9650μ = 0.9737max 0.9995min 0.9650dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.51μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.95¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0012 · σ=0.0067 · skew=-3.05 (left-skewed) · kurt=10.25 (leptokurtic (fat tails))13107301-2.96ppbin -2.96pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -2.96pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak-2.57pp-2.19pp-1.80pp-1.42pp-1.03pp3-0.65ppbin -0.65pp · n=3 · 23.1% peakbin -0.65pp · n=3 · 23.1% peak4-0.26ppbin -0.26pp · n=4 · 30.8% peakbin -0.26pp · n=4 · 30.8% peak130.12ppbin 0.12pp · n=13 · 100.0% peakbin 0.12pp · n=13 · 100.0% peak30.51ppbin 0.51pp · n=3 · 23.1% peakbin 0.51pp · n=3 · 23.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-2.91 · kurt=9.90 · near 9 / mid 14 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.83 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSTHIN UPPER TAILLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-2.14σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-1.71)
μ MEAN2.63¢95% CI: [2.23¢, 3.04¢]
σ STD DEV1.04ppσ² = 1.076 · CV = 39.42%
med MEDIAN3.00¢Q₁ 2.50¢ · Q₃ 3.25¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 3.45pp · IQR 0.75pp (1.349σ→1.40pp)
min 0.05¢Q₁ 2.50¢med 3.00¢Q₃ 3.25¢max 3.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.710left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.707leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.35
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.87
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.33
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.265within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.089lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.865strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-4.902significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.865
H = 0.865STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.265k=2-0.089k=3+0.032k=4-0.110k=5+0.1140+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.90)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.90)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322382
SLUGfifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-halftime-result-away
CATEGORYGermany vs. Curaçao - Halftime Result
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.05¢implied prob 0.05% · decimal odds 2000.00×
COUNTER · NO99.95¢implied prob 99.95% · decimal odds 1.00×
0.05¢
99.95¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME122.18k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY130.52k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.999 · entropy 0.006 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.1%NO 100.0%YES p̂0.1%H = 0.006 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES2000.00×(0¢)NO1.00×(100¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.006 bits (1% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.70% · worst -3.15% · typical |Δ| 0.38%BEARISH SESSION -3.45%BEST+0.70%21hWORST-3.15%22hTYPICAL |Δ|0.38%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.45%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.09% · Σ -0.70%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.34% · Σ -2.75%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.45%+0.00%-3.45%-0.45% · 1h-0.45% · 1h-0.45%1h0.20% · 2h0.20% · 2h0.20%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.25% · 6h0.25% · 6h0.25%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h-0.45% · 8h-0.45% · 8h-0.45%8h-0.05% · 9h-0.05% · 9h-0.05%9h-0.50% · 10h-0.50% · 10h-0.50%10h0.65% · 11h0.65% · 11h0.65%11h0.30% · 12h0.30% · 12h0.30%12h-0.75% · 13h-0.75% · 13h-0.75%13h-0.20% · 14h-0.20% · 14h-0.20%14h0.30% · 15h0.30% · 15h0.30%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h-0.60% · 17h-0.60% · 17h-0.60%17h0.40% · 18h0.40% · 18h0.40%18h0.05% · 19h0.05% · 19h0.05%19h-0.15% · 20h-0.15% · 20h-0.15%20h0.70% · 21h0.70% · 21h0.70%21h★ BEST-3.15% · 22h-3.15% · 22h-3.15%22h▼ WORST0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.00%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH33% up · 38% down · 29% flat
8 up bars · 9 down · best 0.70% · worst -3.15% · typical |Δ| 0.381%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-3.45%)FINAL-3.45%MAX DD-3.45%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9655 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9655, 1.0000]1.00000.9655break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.45% · moderate0%-3.45%▼ TROUGH -3.45%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -3.45%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.45%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9655 (-3.45%) · max DD -3.45% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +3 / −14 (16% positive) · μ=-9.82 · σ=22.72UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -29.08 (-0.85σ vs μ)59.8629.930.00-29.93-59.86μ = -9.820.000.0059.8659.86-13.73-13.73-17.20-17.20-40.19-40.19-3.60-3.60-1.77-1.77-23.39-23.39-16.72-16.72-5.80-5.809.599.59-33.27-33.27-28.37-28.37-2.16-2.160.000.0013.8913.89-30.80-30.80-23.92-23.92-29.08-29.08v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -29.083 · range [-40.19, 59.86] · μ -9.823 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=50.7232 · σ=36.8520 · range [10.9750, 131.2138] · R²=0.557▲ RISING +453.79%σ EXTREME 72.65%LAST 128.0147131.2138101.154171.094441.034710.9750μ = 50.7232max 131.2138min 10.9750dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.56μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 128.01% · range [10.97%, 131.21%] · μ 50.72% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.210 · σ=0.155MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.385 (-1.13σ vs μ)0.4280.2140.000-0.214-0.428μ = -0.210-0.295-0.295-0.355-0.3550.0280.0280.0480.0480.0010.001-0.314-0.314-0.088-0.088-0.191-0.191-0.164-0.164-0.184-0.1840.0630.063-0.265-0.265-0.221-0.221-0.428-0.428-0.358-0.358-0.314-0.314-0.236-0.236-0.340-0.340-0.385-0.385v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.385 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
197.9064
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.9650
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7080
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.9800
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7593
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.7690
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4419
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6361
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0194
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.1932
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2328
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.637 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.35e-5 · top T=3.00h (22.4%) · top-3 cover 53.1%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.4e-41.1e-47.2e-53.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.14e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.14e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.27e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.27e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.23e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.23e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.10e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.10e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.62e-5 · 10.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.62e-5 · 10.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.96e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.96e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.05e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.05e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.44e-4 · 22.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.44e-4 · 22.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.66e-5 · 8.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.66e-5 · 8.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.31e-4 · 20.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.31e-4 · 20.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.59e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.59e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.13e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.13e-5 · 6.4% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 22.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.420e-4

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.735pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 1.80ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0005 · n = 25⚠ low confidence · n < 100
μ per bar
-0.144pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.735pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
3.60pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
1.80pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0005
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.58pp · ES₉₅ 1.81pp · method empirical · drift-correcteddrift -0.144pp/bar · quantised: no · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.56⊘ disabled · n < 30
VaR 95%
0.58pp
5th percentile of Δp
ES 95%
1.81pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
98.6pp
peak 3.5¢ → trough 0.1¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2000.000
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+199900
$100 wins $199900
FractionalUK
1999.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$199900.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.006 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.006 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
10.97 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.00 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
106057059651230934413451973275862301222733278336999550246413993178728957194910
NO token ID
34087990378888172007657094804113102981289716102811053738279355366488008833156
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 19:06:14 UTC
Snapshot age
106ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 19:06:14 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
2c68533953e839488aa14e4ac78d412b901dc8adba1c38f2c93b3632d9878d25 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDSpain89.5¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?0¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,790HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,662HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.26

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Germany vs. Curaçao - Halftime Result

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
—
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
—
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-1.000
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-1.000
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-halftime-result-away/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K————ERR
BUY$10.00K————ERR
BUY$100.00K————ERR
SELL$1.00K————ERR
SELL$10.00K————ERR
SELL$100.00K————ERR

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 25 bars
Realized vol (annualised)
—
σ per bar = 0.857612
Mean return (annualised)
—
μ per bar = -0.177021
Sharpe (rf=0)
—
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
98.57%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.00 over 22 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-halftime-result-away/risk · same metrics, JSON