TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “germany · cura · ao” (34 markets)
Top terms: germanycuraaoscoreexactmarkets
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score30.5¢ YES · $72.2k 24h
- Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?3.9¢ YES · $881.4k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao?1.2¢ YES · $36.0k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao?0.9¢ YES · $51.2k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao?0.2¢ YES · $24.6k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao?4.2¢ YES · $30.9k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao?1.8¢ YES · $37.2k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Curaçao?0.4¢ YES · $25.2k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao?9.5¢ YES · $90.8k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao?4.0¢ YES · $48.9k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao?0.8¢ YES · $22.4k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao?15.0¢ YES · $116.7k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao?4.9¢ YES · $40.6k 24h
- Exact Score: Any Other Score?57.5¢ YES · $22.7k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.562.5¢ YES · $28.9k 24h
- Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?94.3¢ YES · $1.29M 24h
- Curaçao leading at halftime?2.8¢ YES · $25.6k 24h
- Germany leading at halftime?83.5¢ YES · $79.5k 24h
- ★ Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?2.1¢ YES · $3.64M 24h
- Spread: Germany (-1.5)85.5¢ YES · $49.7k 24h
- Spread: Germany (-2.5)70.5¢ YES · $171.8k 24h
- Spread: Germany (-3.5)49.5¢ YES · $690.7k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.531.5¢ YES · $35.5k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.597.9¢ YES · $94.6k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.591.5¢ YES · $92.0k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.577.5¢ YES · $84.9k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.558.0¢ YES · $47.9k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.598.7¢ YES · $41.7k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.593.5¢ YES · $66.4k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.583.5¢ YES · $137.6k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.564.5¢ YES · $84.6k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.545.5¢ YES · $214.3k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.527.5¢ YES · $23.9k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score54.5¢ YES · $99.5k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -4.814 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.809 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.669 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.569 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.491 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.344 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.331 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.248 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-kor · fresh · feed 17s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
21.14%
max drawdown
25.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
12.80%
RMS drawdown
pain index
10.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
21.57%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.80
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.80
upside/downside
roll spread
1.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-kor/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →