POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · NETHERLANDS VS. JAPAN - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan?

YES · live
4.3¢
NO · live
95.7¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-2 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
53.80%
max drawdown
13.13%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
5.04%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.62%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
10.73%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.23
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.23
upside/downside
roll spread
2.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
297
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-2/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
4.3¢
NO · live
95.7¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0481 · σ=0.0064 · range [0.0360, 0.0555] · R²=0.612▼ FALLING -21.82%σ HIGH 13.38%LAST 0.04300.05550.05060.04570.04090.0360μ = 0.0481max 0.0555min 0.0360dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.61μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 4.30¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 4.3%NO 95.7%NO95.7%95.70¢ · odds 1/1.04
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.256 / 1.00 bits (26%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
4.3%4.3¢23.26×▬ +0.00pp
NO
95.7%95.7¢1.04×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=650 · μ=27.1 · σ=30.6 · CV=1.13BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=160295886115μ = 2711550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 650bp moved · peak 115bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2ms
▲YES mid
4.30¢ (4.30%)
▼NO mid
95.70¢ (95.70%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$33.5k
≋liquidity $
$31.5k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0481 · σ=0.0064 · range [0.0360, 0.0555] · R²=0.612▼ FALLING -21.82%σ HIGH 13.38%LAST 0.04300.05550.05060.04570.04090.0360μ = 0.0481max 0.0555min 0.0360dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.61μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 4.30¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9519 · σ=0.0064 · range [0.9445, 0.9640] · R²=0.612▲ RISING +1.27%σ LOW 0.68%LAST 0.95700.96400.95910.95430.94940.9445μ = 0.9519max 0.9640min 0.9445dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.61μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 95.70¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0006 · σ=0.0039 · skew=-0.50 (left-skewed) · kurt=0.28 (mesokurtic)975201-1.06ppbin -1.06pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -1.06pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak-0.87pp1-0.69ppbin -0.69pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -0.69pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak3-0.50ppbin -0.50pp · n=3 · 33.3% peakbin -0.50pp · n=3 · 33.3% peak1-0.32ppbin -0.32pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -0.32pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak4-0.13ppbin -0.13pp · n=4 · 44.4% peakbin -0.13pp · n=4 · 44.4% peak90.05ppbin 0.05pp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin 0.05pp · n=9 · 100.0% peak10.24ppbin 0.24pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 0.24pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak20.42ppbin 0.42pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin 0.42pp · n=2 · 22.2% peak20.61ppbin 0.61pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin 0.61pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.53 · kurt=0.90 · near 17 / mid 7 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.52)
μ MEAN4.81¢95% CI: [4.56¢, 5.06¢]
σ STD DEV0.64ppσ² = 0.414 · CV = 13.38%
med MEDIAN5.05¢Q₁ 4.25¢ · Q₃ 5.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.95pp · IQR 1.25pp (1.349σ→0.87pp)
min 3.60¢Q₁ 4.25¢med 5.05¢Q₃ 5.50¢max 5.55¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.257approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.521platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.37
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.69
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.03
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.093within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.017lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.888strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-6.027significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.888
H = 0.888STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=3
k=1-0.093k=2+0.017k=3 ★-0.426k=4-0.045k=5-0.2230+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.03)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.87very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.03)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322432
SLUGfifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-2
CATEGORYNetherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (96¢)
PRIMARY · YES4.30¢implied prob 4.30% · decimal odds 23.26×
COUNTER · NO95.70¢implied prob 95.70% · decimal odds 1.04×
4.30¢
95.70¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME33.45k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY31.46k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (96¢)|primary − counter| = 0.914 · entropy 0.256 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 4.3%NO 95.7%YES p̂4.3%H = 0.256 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES23.26×(4¢)NO1.04×(96¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.256 bits (26% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 20:00 UTC
0days
02hrs
55min
2.9 hours·θ = 3.153 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 4.3%)
NO →$0.00(P = 95.7%)
current: $0.0430 · expected return per side: $0.96 on YES hit · $0.04 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+1.5hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.64% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 3.153 pp/day
now2.92h left
3.153 pp/day×1.00
−25%2.19h left
3.641 pp/day×1.15
−50%1.46h left
4.459 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.73h left
6.306 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.29h left
9.970 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.70% · worst -1.15% · typical |Δ| 0.27%BEARISH SESSION -1.20%BEST+0.70%14hWORST-1.15%11hTYPICAL |Δ|0.27%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.20%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.05%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.40%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.09% · Σ -0.75%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.20%+0.05%-1.90%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.05% · 3h0.05% · 3h0.05%3h-0.05% · 4h-0.05% · 4h-0.05%4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.05% · 6h0.05% · 6h0.05%6h-0.10% · 7h-0.10% · 7h-0.10%7h-0.10% · 8h-0.10% · 8h-0.10%8h-0.25% · 9h-0.25% · 9h-0.25%9h-0.05% · 10h-0.05% · 10h-0.05%10h-1.15% · 11h-1.15% · 11h-1.15%11h▼ WORST0.35% · 12h0.35% · 12h0.35%12h0.10% · 13h0.10% · 13h0.10%13h0.70% · 14h0.70% · 14h0.70%14h★ BEST0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h-0.50% · 16h-0.50% · 16h-0.50%16h-0.45% · 17h-0.45% · 17h-0.45%17h0.05% · 18h0.05% · 18h0.05%18h-0.55% · 19h-0.55% · 19h-0.55%19h0.30% · 20h0.30% · 20h0.30%20h0.35% · 21h0.35% · 21h0.35%21h0.70% · 22h0.70% · 22h0.70%22h-0.65% · 23h-0.65% · 23h-0.65%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+-0.05%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 5BREADTH38% up · 42% down · 21% flat
9 up bars · 10 down · best 0.70% · worst -1.15% · typical |Δ| 0.271%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-1.21%)FINAL-1.21%MAX DD-1.94%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.05%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9879 · peak 1.0005 · range [0.9810, 1.0005]1.00050.9810break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0005UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.94% · moderate0%-1.94%▼ TROUGH -1.94%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -1.94%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.94%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9879 (-1.21%) · max DD -1.94% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-20.60 · σ=27.20UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 4.38 (+0.92σ vs μ)67.7033.850.00-33.85-67.70μ = -20.6020.7220.72-13.34-13.34-33.95-33.95-67.70-67.70-67.70-67.70-56.28-56.28-40.58-40.58-33.29-33.29-7.41-7.41-1.25-1.25-11.89-11.896.756.75-3.57-3.57-24.36-24.36-50.65-50.65-30.03-30.0312.8312.835.855.854.384.38v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 4.385 · range [-67.70, 20.72] · μ -20.604 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=36.6767 · σ=19.5305 · range [3.5228, 61.4218] · R²=0.451▲ RISING +1317.74%σ EXTREME 53.25%LAST 49.944161.421846.947132.472317.99753.5228μ = 36.6767max 61.4218min 3.5228dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.45μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 49.94% · range [3.52%, 61.42%] · μ 36.68% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.106 · σ=0.256CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.202 (-0.38σ vs μ)0.5450.2720.000-0.272-0.545μ = -0.106-0.363-0.363-0.419-0.419-0.026-0.0260.2440.2440.1280.128-0.106-0.106-0.545-0.545-0.382-0.382-0.134-0.134-0.123-0.123-0.097-0.0970.2980.2980.2810.2810.0410.041-0.486-0.4860.0120.0120.1020.102-0.229-0.229-0.202-0.202v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.202 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
3.2913
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1929
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.3237
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1965
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.6639
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4553
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2243
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8225
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7052
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0131
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.1899
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8494
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.942 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.90e-5 · top T=2.00h (30.7%) · top-3 cover 62.8%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)7.0e-55.3e-53.5e-51.8e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.40e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.40e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.05e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.05e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.29e-5 · 18.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.29e-5 · 18.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.02e-5 · 13.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.02e-5 · 13.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.63e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.63e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.80e-5 · 12.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.80e-5 · 12.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.36e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.36e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.19e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.19e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.36e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.36e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.17e-5 · 9.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.17e-5 · 9.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.43e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.43e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.00e-5 · 30.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.00e-5 · 30.7% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=8.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 30.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.280e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (297 bars · effective 1753103 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.041pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.10ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0412 · n = 297✓ n = 297
μ per bar
+0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.041pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.20pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.10pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0412
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
4.3¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.07pp · ES₉₅ 0.08pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.15pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 297
VaR 95%
0.07pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.08pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
13.1pp
peak 5.0¢ → trough 4.3¢
Median step
0.15pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
4.3%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
23.256
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+2226
$100 wins $2226
FractionalUK
22.26 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$2225.58
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 4.3%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.256 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.256 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.54 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.06 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
83799779961089254362465494378179568350656536009339745370713288964772468606392
NO token ID
59067063133195510417418009695706920350240883353069635589123088777202710514278
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 17:04:44 UTC
Snapshot age
2ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 17:04:44 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
3f1fb296915dd214ae766a2af40142dd9aa30058dc0b991b36a51287e9a1e23c · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.2¢HL PREDSpain89.5¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?2¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,992HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,663.9HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.2

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Netherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.043000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
465.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.760
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.294
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-2/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0573033326.22bp0.07500021FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.26187150900.22bp0.80000048FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.763965167666.24bp0.99700062FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0073558289.55bp0.00100017PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0073558289.55bp0.00100017PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0073558289.55bp0.00100017PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 297 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1175.48%
σ per bar = 0.008878
Mean return (annualised)
21029.35%
μ per bar = 0.000120
Sharpe (rf=0)
17.89
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
13.13%
peak 0.05 → trough 0.04 over 134 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-2/risk · same metrics, JSON