POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · NETHERLANDS VS. JAPAN - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan?

YES · live
2.9¢
NO · live
97.1¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-2 · fresh · feed 0s old
realized vol (ann.)
—
max drawdown
—
sharpe
—
ulcer index
—
RMS drawdown
pain index
—
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
—
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
—
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
—
implied (price-only)
bars used
0
insufficient
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
  • insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-2/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH8ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
2.9¢
NO · live
97.1¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0303 · σ=0.0051 · range [0.0210, 0.0370] · R²=0.509▼ FALLING -21.62%σ EXTREME 16.95%LAST 0.02900.03700.03300.02900.02500.0210μ = 0.0303max 0.0370min 0.0210dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.51μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 2.90¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 2.9%NO 97.1%NO97.1%97.10¢ · odds 1/1.03
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.189 / 1.00 bits (19%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
2.9%2.9¢34.48×▬ +0.00pp
NO
97.1%97.1¢1.03×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=450 · μ=18.8 · σ=27.6 · CV=1.47BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=170285583110μ = 1911050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 450bp moved · peak 110bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
8ms
▲YES mid
2.90¢ (2.90%)
▼NO mid
97.10¢ (97.10%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$56.3k
≋liquidity $
$67.2k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0303 · σ=0.0051 · range [0.0210, 0.0370] · R²=0.509▼ FALLING -21.62%σ EXTREME 16.95%LAST 0.02900.03700.03300.02900.02500.0210μ = 0.0303max 0.0370min 0.0210dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.51μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 2.90¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9697 · σ=0.0051 · range [0.9630, 0.9790] · R²=0.509▲ RISING +0.83%σ LOW 0.53%LAST 0.97100.97900.97500.97100.96700.9630μ = 0.9697max 0.9790min 0.9630dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.51μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 97.10¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0005 · σ=0.0030 · skew=1.46 (right-skewed) · kurt=4.96 (leptokurtic (fat tails))15118402-0.61ppbin -0.61pp · n=2 · 13.3% peakbin -0.61pp · n=2 · 13.3% peak-0.43pp3-0.25ppbin -0.25pp · n=3 · 20.0% peakbin -0.25pp · n=3 · 20.0% peak15-0.07ppbin -0.07pp · n=15 · 100.0% peakbin -0.07pp · n=15 · 100.0% peak10.11ppbin 0.11pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 0.11pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak20.29ppbin 0.29pp · n=2 · 13.3% peakbin 0.29pp · n=2 · 13.3% peak0.47pp0.65pp0.83pp11.01ppbin 1.01pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 1.01pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.15 · kurt=4.41 · near 10 / mid 13 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.91 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.16)
μ MEAN3.03¢95% CI: [2.82¢, 3.23¢]
σ STD DEV0.51ppσ² = 0.263 · CV = 16.95%
med MEDIAN3.20¢Q₁ 2.70¢ · Q₃ 3.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.60pp · IQR 0.80pp (1.349σ→0.69pp)
min 2.10¢Q₁ 2.70¢med 3.20¢Q₃ 3.50¢max 3.70¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.460approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.155platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.34
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.87
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.12
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.21 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.212within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.157lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.102strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-4.884significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.102
H = 1.102STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.212k=2-0.157k=3+0.172k=4-0.253k=5+0.0360+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.88)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.21 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.88)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322444
SLUGfifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-2
CATEGORYNetherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (97¢)
PRIMARY · YES2.90¢implied prob 2.90% · decimal odds 34.48×
COUNTER · NO97.10¢implied prob 97.10% · decimal odds 1.03×
2.90¢
97.10¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME56.25k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY67.22k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (97¢)|primary − counter| = 0.942 · entropy 0.189 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 2.9%NO 97.1%YES p̂2.9%H = 0.189 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES34.48×(3¢)NO1.03×(97¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.189 bits (19% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · CRITICALresolves 2026-06-14 20:00 UTC
0days
00hrs
41min
41 minutes·θ = 2.513 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 2.9%)
NO →$0.00(P = 97.1%)
current: $0.0290 · expected return per side: $0.97 on YES hit · $0.03 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+0.3hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.51% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 2.513 pp/day
now0.68h left
2.513 pp/day×1.00
−25%0.51h left
2.902 pp/day×1.15
−50%0.34h left
3.554 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.17h left
5.026 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.07h left
7.947 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.10% · worst -0.70% · typical |Δ| 0.19%BEARISH SESSION -0.80%BEST+1.10%21hWORST-0.70%17hTYPICAL |Δ|0.19%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.80%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.25%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.12% · Σ -0.95%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.05% · Σ +0.40%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.80%+0.00%-1.60%-0.05% · 1h-0.05% · 1h-0.05%1h-0.10% · 2h-0.10% · 2h-0.10%2h-0.05% · 3h-0.05% · 3h-0.05%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h-0.05% · 7h-0.05% · 7h-0.05%7h-0.05% · 8h-0.05% · 8h-0.05%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h-0.05% · 10h-0.05% · 10h-0.05%10h-0.65% · 11h-0.65% · 11h-0.65%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.15% · 13h0.15% · 13h0.15%13h-0.15% · 14h-0.15% · 14h-0.15%14h-0.20% · 15h-0.20% · 15h-0.20%15h0.30% · 16h0.30% · 16h0.30%16h-0.70% · 17h-0.70% · 17h-0.70%17h▼ WORST0.30% · 18h0.30% · 18h0.30%18h-0.30% · 19h-0.30% · 19h-0.30%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h1.10% · 21h1.10% · 21h1.10%21h★ BEST0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h-0.30% · 23h-0.30% · 23h-0.30%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.40%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 3BREADTH17% up · 50% down · 33% flat
4 up bars · 12 down · best 1.10% · worst -0.70% · typical |Δ| 0.188%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.81%)FINAL-0.81%MAX DD-1.59%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9919 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9841, 1.0000]1.00000.9841break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.59% · moderate0%-1.59%▼ TROUGH -1.59%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -1.59%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.59%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9919 (-0.81%) · max DD -1.59% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-34.70 · σ=34.51UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 15.02 (+1.44σ vs μ)85.4442.720.00-42.72-85.44μ = -34.70-76.42-76.42-76.42-76.42-85.44-85.44-60.42-60.42-85.44-85.44-49.07-49.07-49.07-49.07-33.51-33.51-39.18-39.18-51.26-51.26-25.94-25.94-26.91-26.91-12.16-12.16-30.64-30.64-24.33-24.3317.7717.7710.2510.2523.8123.8115.0215.02v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 15.020 · range [-85.44, 23.81] · μ -34.704 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=27.5821 · σ=18.1950 · range [2.4166, 57.5183] · R²=0.897▲ RISING +1172.01%σ EXTREME 65.97%LAST 48.603357.518343.742929.967516.19202.4166μ = 27.5821max 57.5183min 2.4166dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.90μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 48.60% · range [2.42%, 57.52%] · μ 27.58% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.181 · σ=0.340MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.055 (+0.37σ vs μ)0.8380.4190.000-0.419-0.838μ = -0.1810.4670.4670.2670.2670.1670.1670.1670.167-0.167-0.167-0.009-0.009-0.256-0.256-0.122-0.122-0.175-0.175-0.213-0.213-0.145-0.145-0.434-0.434-0.693-0.693-0.814-0.814-0.838-0.838-0.234-0.234-0.204-0.204-0.156-0.156-0.055-0.055v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.055 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
39.5050
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.8385
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4368
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.9020
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3419
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.4142
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1573
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6428
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0187
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.1118
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2662
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.662 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.10e-5 · top T=3.00h (23.3%) · top-3 cover 55.6%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)3.1e-52.3e-51.5e-57.7e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.14e-6 · 4.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.14e-6 · 4.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.83e-6 · 2.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.83e-6 · 2.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.15e-5 · 8.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.15e-5 · 8.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.13e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.13e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.24e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.24e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.78e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.78e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.77e-7 · 0.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.77e-7 · 0.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.07e-5 · 23.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.07e-5 · 23.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.48e-5 · 18.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.48e-5 · 18.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.65e-6 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.65e-6 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.92e-6 · 6.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.92e-6 · 6.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.04e-6 · 5.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.04e-6 · 5.3% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=2.67h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 23.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.317e-4

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.334pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.82ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0282 · n = 25⚠ low confidence · n < 100
μ per bar
-0.033pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.334pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
1.64pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.82pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0282
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
2.9¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.56pp · ES₉₅ 0.64pp · method empirical · drift-correcteddrift -0.033pp/bar · quantised: no · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.60⊘ disabled · n < 30
VaR 95%
0.56pp
5th percentile of Δp
ES 95%
0.64pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
43.2pp
peak 3.7¢ → trough 2.1¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
2.9%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
34.483
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+3348
$100 wins $3348
FractionalUK
33.48 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$3348.28
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 2.9%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.189 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.189 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
5.11 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.04 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
45648304830286993887492548099697057631619145104837710495385910887930978354168
NO token ID
74165681871958837170527081852720456179536304733368518905901128200316130304650
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 19:18:56 UTC
Snapshot age
8ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 19:18:56 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
0f4ee6fe5133ea775540f73aeb6ba56694d6440c7aa68983af2b25b00024acf5 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDSpain89.6¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?0¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,831.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,666.85HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.65

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Netherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.029000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
689.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.870
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.324
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-2/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.030000344.83bp0.0300001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.14468239890.19bp0.92900038FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.607525199491.40bp0.98000045FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0207702838.02bp0.0010009PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0207702838.02bp0.0010009PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0207702838.02bp0.0010009PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 25 bars
Realized vol (annualised)
—
σ per bar = 0.127859
Mean return (annualised)
—
μ per bar = -0.010151
Sharpe (rf=0)
—
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
43.24%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.02 over 17 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-2/risk · same metrics, JSON