POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · NETHERLANDS VS. JAPAN - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan?

YES · live
0.9¢
NO · live
99.2¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-3 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
37.13%
max drawdown
39.29%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
12.42%
RMS drawdown
pain index
6.71%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
27.38%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.78
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.78
upside/downside
roll spread
5.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
542
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-3/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH12ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.9¢
NO · live
99.2¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0158 · σ=0.0069 · range [0.0070, 0.0350] · R²=0.709▼ FALLING -78.57%σ EXTREME 43.57%LAST 0.00750.03500.02800.02100.01400.0070μ = 0.0158max 0.0350min 0.0070dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.71μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.75¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.9%NO 99.2%NO99.2%99.15¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.071 / 1.00 bits (7%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.9%0.9¢117.65×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.2%99.2¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=825 · μ=34.4 · σ=31.6 · CV=0.92BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=130295886115μ = 3411550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 825bp moved · peak 115bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
12ms
▲YES mid
0.85¢ (0.85%)
▼NO mid
99.15¢ (99.15%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$36.8k
≋liquidity $
$35.6k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0158 · σ=0.0069 · range [0.0070, 0.0350] · R²=0.709▼ FALLING -78.57%σ EXTREME 43.57%LAST 0.00750.03500.02800.02100.01400.0070μ = 0.0158max 0.0350min 0.0070dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.71μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.75¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9842 · σ=0.0069 · range [0.9650, 0.9930] · R²=0.709▲ RISING +2.85%σ LOW 0.70%LAST 0.99250.99300.98600.97900.97200.9650μ = 0.9842max 0.9930min 0.9650dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.71μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.25¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0011 · σ=0.0043 · skew=-0.67 (left-skewed) · kurt=-0.06 (mesokurtic)754202-1.06ppbin -1.06pp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -1.06pp · n=2 · 28.6% peak-0.89pp1-0.71ppbin -0.71pp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -0.71pp · n=1 · 14.3% peak2-0.54ppbin -0.54pp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -0.54pp · n=2 · 28.6% peak2-0.36ppbin -0.36pp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -0.36pp · n=2 · 28.6% peak2-0.19ppbin -0.19pp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -0.19pp · n=2 · 28.6% peak7-0.01ppbin -0.01pp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin -0.01pp · n=7 · 100.0% peak40.16ppbin 0.16pp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin 0.16pp · n=4 · 57.1% peak10.34ppbin 0.34pp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 0.34pp · n=1 · 14.3% peak30.51ppbin 0.51pp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin 0.51pp · n=3 · 42.9% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.58 · kurt=-0.15 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.74)
μ MEAN1.58¢95% CI: [1.31¢, 1.85¢]
σ STD DEV0.69ppσ² = 0.473 · CV = 43.57%
med MEDIAN1.40¢Q₁ 1.15¢ · Q₃ 1.90¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 2.80pp · IQR 0.75pp (1.349σ→0.93pp)
min 0.70¢Q₁ 1.15¢med 1.40¢Q₃ 1.90¢max 3.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.738right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.314mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.26
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.24
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.07
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.35 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.351within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.163lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.890strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-7.483significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.890
H = 0.890STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.351k=2-0.163k=3+0.133k=4+0.193k=5-0.2460+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.48)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.35 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.48)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322445
SLUGfifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-3
CATEGORYNetherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (99¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.85¢implied prob 0.85% · decimal odds 117.65×
COUNTER · NO99.15¢implied prob 99.15% · decimal odds 1.01×
0.85¢
99.15¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME36.79k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY35.60k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.983 · entropy 0.071 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.9%NO 99.2%YES p̂0.9%H = 0.071 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES117.65×(1¢)NO1.01×(99¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.071 bits (7% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 20:00 UTC
0days
02hrs
55min
2.9 hours·θ = 3.368 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 0.9%)
NO →$0.00(P = 99.2%)
current: $0.0085 · expected return per side: $0.99 on YES hit · $0.01 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+1.5hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.69% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 3.368 pp/day
now2.92h left
3.368 pp/day×1.00
−25%2.19h left
3.889 pp/day×1.15
−50%1.46h left
4.763 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.73h left
6.737 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.29h left
10.651 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.60% · worst -1.15% · typical |Δ| 0.34%BEARISH SESSION -2.75%BEST+0.60%18hWORST-1.15%1hTYPICAL |Δ|0.34%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.75%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.23% · Σ -1.60%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.55%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.60%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.75%+0.00%-2.80%-1.15% · 1h-1.15% · 1h-1.15%1h▼ WORST0.20% · 2h0.20% · 2h0.20%2h-0.05% · 3h-0.05% · 3h-0.05%3h-0.50% · 4h-0.50% · 4h-0.50%4h-0.05% · 5h-0.05% · 5h-0.05%5h-0.25% · 6h-0.25% · 6h-0.25%6h0.20% · 7h0.20% · 7h0.20%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h-0.10% · 9h-0.10% · 9h-0.10%9h-0.45% · 10h-0.45% · 10h-0.45%10h0.45% · 11h0.45% · 11h0.45%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h-1.05% · 13h-1.05% · 13h-1.05%13h0.20% · 14h0.20% · 14h0.20%14h0.40% · 15h0.40% · 15h0.40%15h-0.20% · 16h-0.20% · 16h-0.20%16h-0.45% · 17h-0.45% · 17h-0.45%17h0.60% · 18h0.60% · 18h0.60%18h★ BEST-0.60% · 19h-0.60% · 19h-0.60%19h0.55% · 20h0.55% · 20h0.55%20h0.05% · 21h0.05% · 21h0.05%21h0.10% · 22h0.10% · 22h0.10%22h-0.65% · 23h-0.65% · 23h-0.65%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+-0.55%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH38% up · 50% down · 13% flat
9 up bars · 12 down · best 0.60% · worst -1.15% · typical |Δ| 0.344%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.74%)FINAL-2.74%MAX DD-2.78%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9726 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9722, 1.0000]1.00000.9722break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.78% · moderate0%-2.78%▼ TROUGH -2.78%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -2.78%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.78%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9726 (-2.74%) · max DD -2.78% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-18.49 · σ=20.62UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -18.75 (-0.01σ vs μ)58.8029.400.00-29.40-58.80μ = -18.49-58.80-58.80-26.03-26.03-42.32-42.32-45.87-45.87-45.61-45.61-7.30-7.305.185.18-35.22-35.22-27.94-27.94-12.13-12.13-5.62-5.62-33.10-33.10-12.78-12.78-1.62-1.628.818.81-1.55-1.557.877.871.441.44-18.75-18.75v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -18.748 · range [-58.80, 8.81] · μ -18.491 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=41.2807 · σ=12.0878 · range [20.8060, 57.1363] · R²=0.425▼ FALLING -4.16%σ EXTREME 29.28%LAST 42.830957.136348.053738.971229.888620.8060μ = 41.2807max 57.1363min 20.8060dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.42μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 42.83% · range [20.81%, 57.14%] · μ 41.28% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.341 · σ=0.198MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.350 (-0.04σ vs μ)0.7780.3890.000-0.389-0.778μ = -0.341-0.340-0.340-0.184-0.184-0.224-0.224-0.133-0.133-0.083-0.083-0.422-0.422-0.344-0.344-0.165-0.165-0.397-0.397-0.220-0.220-0.147-0.147-0.203-0.203-0.215-0.215-0.462-0.462-0.652-0.652-0.664-0.664-0.778-0.778-0.496-0.496-0.350-0.350v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.350 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.5251
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4665
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.7854
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1672
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.1342
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0243
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.7845
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4328
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8538
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0053
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.2563
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0240
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.313 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.19e-5 · top T=3.00h (26.8%) · top-3 cover 63.3%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)7.1e-55.3e-53.5e-51.8e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.31e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.31e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.49e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.49e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.81e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.81e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.00e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.00e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.01e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.01e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.73e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.73e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.83e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.83e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.05e-5 · 26.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.05e-5 · 26.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.17e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.17e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.78e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.78e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.19e-5 · 19.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.19e-5 · 19.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.40e-5 · 16.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.40e-5 · 16.7% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=2.18h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 26.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.631e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (542 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.028pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.07ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0084 · n = 542✓ n = 542
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.028pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.14pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.07pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0084
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.9¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.05pp · ES₉₅ 0.06pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 542
VaR 95%
0.05pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.06pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
39.3pp
peak 1.4¢ → trough 0.9¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.9%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
117.647
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+11665
$100 wins $11665
FractionalUK
116.65 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$11664.71
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.9%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.071 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.071 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
6.88 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.01 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
56980952173594277946270778660550053979579156651153205025865456275287569976709
NO token ID
105332866295712172512995150993130384527825192365613620397673949421063590668376
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 17:04:44 UTC
Snapshot age
12ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 17:04:44 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
8ebaa8db8696100868134f07abdeae4f0a920bacb8553cc8793830f44d123db3 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.2¢HL PREDSpain89.5¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?2¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,992HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,663.9HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.2

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Netherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.008000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
10000.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.961
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.664
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-3/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.04267143338.72bp0.41100028FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.278421338026.27bp0.96000056FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.776783960979.23bp0.97000058FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0021947257.49bp0.0010004PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0021947257.49bp0.0010004PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0021947257.49bp0.0010004PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 542 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
3161.04%
σ per bar = 0.023875
Mean return (annualised)
-68470.60%
μ per bar = -0.000391
Sharpe (rf=0)
-21.66
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
39.29%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 184 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-3/risk · same metrics, JSON