POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · STRAIT OF HORMUZ TRAFFIC RETURNS TO NORMAL BY DECEMBER 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

YES · live
82.0¢
NO · live
18.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 · fresh · feed 0s old
realized vol (ann.)
—
max drawdown
—
sharpe
—
ulcer index
—
RMS drawdown
pain index
—
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
—
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
—
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
—
implied (price-only)
bars used
0
insufficient
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
  • insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
82.0¢
NO · live
18.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.8430 · σ=0.0121 · range [0.8250, 0.8600] · R²=0.617▼ FALLING -3.51%σ NORMAL 1.43%LAST 0.82500.86000.85120.84250.83370.8250μ = 0.8430max 0.8600min 0.8250dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.62μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 82.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 82.0%NO 18.0%YES82.0%82.00¢ · odds 1/1.22
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.680 / 1.00 bits (68%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
82.0%82.0¢1.22×▬ +0.00pp
NO
18.0%18.0¢5.56×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,600 · μ=66.7 · σ=50.4 · CV=0.76FADING -32% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=10050100150200μ = 6720050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1600bp moved · peak 200bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3ms
▲YES mid
82.00¢ (82.00%)
▼NO mid
18.00¢ (18.00%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$207.1k
≋liquidity $
$201.9k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8430 · σ=0.0121 · range [0.8250, 0.8600] · R²=0.617▼ FALLING -3.51%σ NORMAL 1.43%LAST 0.82500.86000.85120.84250.83370.8250μ = 0.8430max 0.8600min 0.8250dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.62μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 82.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1570 · σ=0.0121 · range [0.1400, 0.1750] · R²=0.617▲ RISING +20.69%σ HIGH 7.69%LAST 0.17500.17500.16630.15750.14870.1400μ = 0.1570max 0.1750min 0.1400dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.62μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 17.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0010 · σ=0.0080 · skew=-0.15 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.58 (mesokurtic)864201-1.83ppbin -1.83pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -1.83pp · n=1 · 12.5% peak1-1.48ppbin -1.48pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -1.48pp · n=1 · 12.5% peak2-1.13ppbin -1.13pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin -1.13pp · n=2 · 25.0% peak-0.78pp8-0.43ppbin -0.43pp · n=8 · 100.0% peakbin -0.43pp · n=8 · 100.0% peak4-0.08ppbin -0.08pp · n=4 · 50.0% peakbin -0.08pp · n=4 · 50.0% peak0.28pp40.63ppbin 0.63pp · n=4 · 50.0% peakbin 0.63pp · n=4 · 50.0% peak30.98ppbin 0.98pp · n=3 · 37.5% peakbin 0.98pp · n=3 · 37.5% peak11.33ppbin 1.33pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 1.33pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.11 · kurt=-0.26 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.41)
μ MEAN84.30¢95% CI: [83.83¢, 84.77¢]
σ STD DEV1.21ppσ² = 1.458 · CV = 1.43%
med MEDIAN84.00¢Q₁ 83.50¢ · Q₃ 85.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 3.50pp · IQR 2.00pp (1.349σ→1.63pp)
min 82.50¢Q₁ 83.50¢med 84.00¢Q₃ 85.50¢max 86.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.109approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.411platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.25
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.81
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.90
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.28 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.276within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.141lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.999strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-6.082significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.999
H = 0.999STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.276k=2-0.141k=3+0.172k=4-0.093k=5-0.1330+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.08)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.28 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.08)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2176270
SLUGstrait-of-hormuz…-december-31
CATEGORYStrait of Hormuz…December 31?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (82¢)
PRIMARY · YES82.00¢implied prob 82.00% · decimal odds 1.22×
COUNTER · NO18.00¢implied prob 18.00% · decimal odds 5.56×
82.00¢
18.00¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME207.08k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY201.86k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (82¢)|primary − counter| = 0.640 · entropy 0.680 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 82.0%NO 18.0%YES p̂82.0%H = 0.680 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.22×(82¢)NO5.56×(18¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.680 bits (68% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
199days
04hrs
52min
199.20 days·θ = 5.916 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 82.0%)
NO →$0.00(P = 18.0%)
current: $0.8200 · expected return per side: $0.18 on YES hit · $0.82 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+99.6dRESOLVESP projection · σ=1.21% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 5.916 pp/day
now199.20d left
5.916 pp/day×1.00
−25%149.40d left
6.831 pp/day×1.15
−50%99.60d left
8.367 pp/day×1.41
−75%49.80d left
11.832 pp/day×2.00
−90%19.92d left
18.708 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.50% · worst -2.00% · typical |Δ| 0.67%BEARISH SESSION -3.00%BEST+1.50%7hWORST-2.00%9hTYPICAL |Δ|0.67%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.38% · Σ -3.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.00%+0.50%-3.00%0.50% · 1h0.50% · 1h0.50%1h-0.50% · 2h-0.50% · 2h-0.50%2h0.50% · 3h0.50% · 3h0.50%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h-0.50% · 5h-0.50% · 5h-0.50%5h-1.50% · 6h-1.50% · 6h-1.50%6h1.50% · 7h1.50% · 7h1.50%7h★ BEST-0.50% · 8h-0.50% · 8h-0.50%8h-2.00% · 9h-2.00% · 9h-2.00%9h▼ WORST1.00% · 10h1.00% · 10h1.00%10h-0.50% · 11h-0.50% · 11h-0.50%11h0.50% · 12h0.50% · 12h0.50%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.50% · 14h0.50% · 14h0.50%14h1.00% · 15h1.00% · 15h1.00%15h-0.50% · 16h-0.50% · 16h-0.50%16h-0.50% · 17h-0.50% · 17h-0.50%17h-0.50% · 18h-0.50% · 18h-0.50%18h-1.00% · 19h-1.00% · 19h-1.00%19h-0.50% · 20h-0.50% · 20h-0.50%20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h1.00% · 22h1.00% · 22h1.00%22h-1.00% · 23h-1.00% · 23h-1.00%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+-3.00%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 5BREADTH33% up · 50% down · 17% flat
8 up bars · 12 down · best 1.50% · worst -2.00% · typical |Δ| 0.667%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-3.04%)FINAL-3.04%MAX DD-3.52%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.50%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9696 · peak 1.0050 · range [0.9696, 1.0050]1.00500.9696break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0050UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.52% · moderate0%-3.52%▼ TROUGH -3.52%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -3.52%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.52%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9696 (-3.04%) · max DD -3.52% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +3 / −14 (16% positive) · μ=-19.07 · σ=41.66UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -30.86 (-0.28σ vs μ)147.9973.990.00-73.99-147.99μ = -19.07-30.86-30.86-7.64-7.64-7.64-7.64-38.21-38.21-22.83-22.83-22.83-22.830.000.00-22.57-22.57-7.30-7.3066.7266.7225.7625.7625.7625.760.000.00-20.72-20.72-45.67-45.67-147.99-147.99-33.95-33.95-41.44-41.44-30.86-30.86v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -30.857 · range [-147.99, 66.72] · μ -19.067 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=81.3164 · σ=27.8299 · range [29.5973, 127.8749] · R²=0.398▬ FLATσ EXTREME 34.22%LAST 70.9718127.8749103.305578.736154.166729.5973μ = 81.3164max 127.8749min 29.5973dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.40μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 70.97% · range [29.60%, 127.87%] · μ 81.32% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −12 (32% positive) · μ=-0.173 · σ=0.269MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.239 (-0.25σ vs μ)0.4940.2470.000-0.247-0.494μ = -0.1730.0220.022-0.361-0.361-0.441-0.441-0.267-0.267-0.449-0.449-0.494-0.494-0.313-0.313-0.384-0.384-0.468-0.468-0.370-0.370-0.333-0.3330.0300.0300.2500.2500.3140.3140.0240.0240.0000.0000.2890.289-0.098-0.098-0.239-0.239v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.239 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.0524
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9741
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.3597
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5004
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.5596
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5050
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.6716
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5018
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6723
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0161
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.4288
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1531
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.565 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.74e-5 · top T=2.40h (24.4%) · top-3 cover 62.7%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.0e-41.5e-49.9e-54.9e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.16e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.16e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.57e-5 · 10.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.57e-5 · 10.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.37e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.37e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.98e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.98e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.28e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.28e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.17e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.17e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.87e-4 · 23.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.87e-4 · 23.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.22e-4 · 15.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.22e-4 · 15.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.55e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.55e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.98e-4 · 24.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.98e-4 · 24.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.60e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.60e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.17e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.17e-6 · 0.5% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=3.43h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 24.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 8.083e-4

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 199.2 d · σ/bar 0.837pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 57.89ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1444 · n = 25⚠ low confidence · n < 100
μ per bar
-0.125pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.837pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
4.10pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move199d
57.89pp
σ × √4780.871920555555
Terminal variancebinary
0.1444
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
82.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 1.50pp · ES₉₅ 1.85pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.125pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.32⊘ disabled · n < 30
VaR 95%
1.50pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
1.85pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
4.1pp
peak 86.0¢ → trough 82.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
82.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.220
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-456
risk $456 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.22 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$21.95
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 82.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.680 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.680 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.29 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
2.47 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
83783489454659420807679723574840032660002326710045123865554753994450797728825
NO token ID
48727431314333088243693016929623363710488980152833544156961659445129455301311
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 19:07:41 UTC
Snapshot age
3ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 19:07:41 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
1e8c774ada68392c52756a39764f2b55835ac789c25c217baedec446e6cf6e36 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDSpain89.5¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?0¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,768.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,661.65HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.32

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.825000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
121.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.708
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.082
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.834751118.19bp0.8400002FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.857791397.47bp0.8800006FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.9336141316.53bp0.96000014FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.81737992.38bp0.8100002FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.803453261.18bp0.7900004FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.4100635029.53bp0.23000052FILLED

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 25 bars
Realized vol (annualised)
—
σ per bar = 0.009943
Mean return (annualised)
—
μ per bar = -0.001488
Sharpe (rf=0)
—
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.07%
peak 0.86 → trough 0.82 over 19 bars

/api/asset/pm-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/risk · same metrics, JSON