POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · US X RUSSIA MILITARY CLASH BY...?

US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

YES · live
5.9¢
NO · live
94.1¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · us-x-russia-military-clash-by-december-31-2026-775 · fresh · feed 16s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
45.77%
max drawdown
23.08%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
13.38%
RMS drawdown
pain index
9.92%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
23.08%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.89
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.89
upside/downside
roll spread
0.5 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-us-x-russia-military-clash-by-december-31-2026-775/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING16.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
5.9¢
NO · live
94.1¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0617 · σ=0.0036 · range [0.0550, 0.0705] · R²=0.270▼ FALLING -14.71%σ HIGH 5.78%LAST 0.05800.07050.06660.06280.05890.0550μ = 0.0617max 0.0705min 0.0550dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.27μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 5.80¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 5.9%NO 94.1%NO94.1%94.10¢ · odds 1/1.06
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.323 / 1.00 bits (32%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
5.9%5.9¢16.95×▬ +0.00pp
NO
94.1%94.1¢1.06×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=560 · μ=23.3 · σ=33.2 · CV=1.42BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=180326597130μ = 2313050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 560bp moved · peak 130bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
16.3s
▲YES mid
5.90¢ (5.90%)
▼NO mid
94.10¢ (94.10%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$213.0k
≋liquidity $
$22.2k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0617 · σ=0.0036 · range [0.0550, 0.0705] · R²=0.270▼ FALLING -14.71%σ HIGH 5.78%LAST 0.05800.07050.06660.06280.05890.0550μ = 0.0617max 0.0705min 0.0550dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.27μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 5.80¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9383 · σ=0.0036 · range [0.9295, 0.9450] · R²=0.270▲ RISING +1.07%σ LOW 0.38%LAST 0.94200.94500.94110.93720.93340.9295μ = 0.9383max 0.9450min 0.9295dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.27μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 94.20¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0005 · σ=0.0037 · skew=-0.72 (left-skewed) · kurt=2.53 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1186301-1.19ppbin -1.19pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -1.19pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak-0.98pp-0.77pp1-0.56ppbin -0.56pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -0.56pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak3-0.35ppbin -0.35pp · n=3 · 27.3% peakbin -0.35pp · n=3 · 27.3% peak5-0.14ppbin -0.14pp · n=5 · 45.5% peakbin -0.14pp · n=5 · 45.5% peak110.07ppbin 0.07pp · n=11 · 100.0% peakbin 0.07pp · n=11 · 100.0% peak10.28ppbin 0.28pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 0.28pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak0.48pp20.70ppbin 0.70pp · n=2 · 18.2% peakbin 0.70pp · n=2 · 18.2% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.65 · kurt=3.09 · near 12 / mid 11 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.93 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN6.17¢95% CI: [6.03¢, 6.31¢]
σ STD DEV0.36ppσ² = 0.127 · CV = 5.78%
med MEDIAN6.20¢Q₁ 6.10¢ · Q₃ 6.35¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.55pp · IQR 0.25pp (1.349σ→0.48pp)
min 5.50¢Q₁ 6.10¢med 6.20¢Q₃ 6.35¢max 7.05¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.202approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.047mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.08
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.93
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.34
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.39 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.391within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.015lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.012strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.917significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.012
H = 1.012STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.391k=2+0.015k=3-0.071k=4-0.278k=5+0.3780+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.92)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.39 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.92)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1124834
SLUGus-x-russia-military-clash-by-december-31-2026-775
CATEGORYUS x Russia military clash by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (94¢)
PRIMARY · YES5.90¢implied prob 5.90% · decimal odds 16.95×
COUNTER · NO94.10¢implied prob 94.10% · decimal odds 1.06×
5.90¢
94.10¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME213.00k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY22.20k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (94¢)|primary − counter| = 0.882 · entropy 0.323 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 5.9%NO 94.1%YES p̂5.9%H = 0.323 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES16.95×(6¢)NO1.06×(94¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.323 bits (32% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-31 12:00 UTC
200days
00hrs
50min
200.03 days·θ = 1.748 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 5.9%)
NO →$0.00(P = 94.1%)
current: $0.0590 · expected return per side: $0.94 on YES hit · $0.06 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+100.0dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.36% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 1.748 pp/day
now200.03d left
1.748 pp/day×1.00
−25%150.03d left
2.018 pp/day×1.15
−50%100.02d left
2.472 pp/day×1.41
−75%50.01d left
3.496 pp/day×2.00
−90%20.00d left
5.527 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.80% · worst -1.30% · typical |Δ| 0.23%BEARISH SESSION -1.00%BEST+0.80%22hWORST-1.30%18hTYPICAL |Δ|0.23%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.09% · Σ -0.65%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.02% · Σ +0.15%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.00%+0.25%-1.30%-0.35% · 1h-0.35% · 1h-0.35%1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h-0.10% · 3h-0.10% · 3h-0.10%3h-0.25% · 4h-0.25% · 4h-0.25%4h0.05% · 5h0.05% · 5h0.05%5h-0.05% · 6h-0.05% · 6h-0.05%6h0.05% · 7h0.05% · 7h0.05%7h0.35% · 8h0.35% · 8h0.35%8h-0.35% · 9h-0.35% · 9h-0.35%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.05% · 11h0.05% · 11h0.05%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.10% · 15h0.10% · 15h0.10%15h-0.05% · 16h-0.05% · 16h-0.05%16h0.80% · 17h0.80% · 17h0.80%17h-1.30% · 18h-1.30% · 18h-1.30%18h▼ WORST-0.10% · 19h-0.10% · 19h-0.10%19h-0.15% · 20h-0.15% · 20h-0.15%20h0.10% · 21h0.10% · 21h0.10%21h0.80% · 22h0.80% · 22h0.80%22h★ BEST-0.60% · 23h-0.60% · 23h-0.60%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.15%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH33% up · 42% down · 25% flat
8 up bars · 10 down · best 0.80% · worst -1.30% · typical |Δ| 0.233%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-1.01%)FINAL-1.01%MAX DD-1.55%RECOVERYONGOING · 7 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.24%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9899 · peak 1.0024 · range [0.9869, 1.0024]1.00240.9869break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0024UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.55% · moderate0%-1.55%▼ TROUGH -1.55%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.55%bar 19-25 · 7 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.70%bar 2-17 · 16 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.55%)RECOVERYongoing · 7 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9899 (-1.01%) · max DD -1.55% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=-4.54 · σ=28.72MIXED EDGELAST 1.71 (+0.22σ vs μ)70.9835.490.00-35.49-70.98μ = -4.54-70.98-70.98-41.04-41.043.883.88-12.56-12.563.473.473.473.477.007.003.513.51-31.55-31.5555.9355.9330.2130.2140.6540.65-10.33-10.33-12.64-12.64-16.12-16.12-16.12-16.123.023.02-27.73-27.731.711.71v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 1.708 · range [-70.98, 55.93] · μ -4.539 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=33.6322 · σ=23.7827 · range [3.9154, 72.6039] · R²=0.580▲ RISING +196.75%σ EXTREME 70.71%LAST 42.728672.603955.431838.259621.08753.9154μ = 33.6322max 72.6039min 3.9154dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.58μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 42.73% · range [3.92%, 72.60%] · μ 33.63% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.311 · σ=0.184MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.385 (-0.41σ vs μ)0.5210.2600.000-0.260-0.521μ = -0.311-0.326-0.326-0.192-0.1920.1320.132-0.358-0.358-0.437-0.437-0.428-0.428-0.427-0.427-0.486-0.4860.0000.000-0.214-0.214-0.521-0.521-0.136-0.136-0.445-0.445-0.436-0.436-0.449-0.449-0.458-0.458-0.264-0.264-0.072-0.072-0.385-0.385v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.385 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
19.1070
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
11.4069
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0435
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.6237
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0056
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5471
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5843
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4578
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0523
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.6785
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0933
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.489 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.58e-5 · top T=2.40h (31.6%) · top-3 cover 60.3%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)6.0e-54.5e-53.0e-51.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.01e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.01e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.90e-7 · 0.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.90e-7 · 0.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.55e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.55e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.25e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.25e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.88e-5 · 15.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.88e-5 · 15.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.85e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.85e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.86e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.86e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.55e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.55e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.44e-5 · 12.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.44e-5 · 12.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.01e-5 · 31.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.01e-5 · 31.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.56e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.56e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.75e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.75e-7 · 0.2% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=4.80h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 31.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.899e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (2807 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 200.0 d · σ/bar 0.030pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 2.08ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0555 · n = 2807✓ n = 2807
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.030pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.15pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move200d
2.08pp
σ × √4800.838128611112
Terminal variancebinary
0.0555
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
5.9¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.05pp · ES₉₅ 0.06pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 2807
VaR 95%
0.05pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.06pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
23.1pp
peak 7.1¢ → trough 5.5¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
5.9%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
16.949
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+1595
$100 wins $1595
FractionalUK
15.95 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1594.92
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 5.9%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.323 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.323 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.08 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.09 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
74580890713477889155778397033413604695248820561928419929239929602538131402272
NO token ID
7257011479626409922035368873631229141341263144294525166015954883117981789975
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:09:26 UTC
Snapshot age
16.3s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:09:42 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
87c37218302494337ebda7d172103af62c9cd8945b0e69e6ef0cae1bb3a806f7 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?23¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,490HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,672.9HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.73

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in US x Russia military clash by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.058000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
344.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.044
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.632
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-us-x-russia-military-clash-by-december-31-2026-775/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.21379426861.07bp0.41000030FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.45514668473.46bp0.61000047FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.788388125928.96bp0.99900077PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0036559369.87bp0.00100028PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0036559369.87bp0.00100028PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0036559369.87bp0.00100028PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 2,807 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
629.78%
σ per bar = 0.004757
Mean return (annualised)
-3098.15%
μ per bar = -0.000018
Sharpe (rf=0)
-4.92
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
23.08%
peak 0.07 → trough 0.06 over 581 bars

/api/asset/pm-us-x-russia-military-clash-by-december-31-2026-775/risk · same metrics, JSON