TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “traffic · returns · normal” (7 markets)

Top terms: trafficreturnsnormalstraithormuz31

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?9.5¢ YES · $308.3k 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?82.5¢ YES · $192.4k 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?14.5¢ YES · $933.4k 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?38.0¢ YES · $65.8k 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?50.5¢ YES · $359.7k 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?0.3¢ YES · $1.27M 24h
★ US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?6.1¢ YES · $206.6k 24h

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (5 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peer	t-stat	n	Verdict
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	-5.192	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	-4.692	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	-4.597	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	-4.242	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	-4.228	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · us-x-russia-military-clash-by-december-31-2026-775 · fresh · feed 0s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.61%

realized vol (ann.)

46.77%

max drawdown

21.43%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

15.11%

RMS drawdown

pain index

14.31%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

21.43%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.74

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.74

upside/downside

roll spread

1.2 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

2000

store

spread

—

24h Δ

-1.61%

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%

24h change -1.61%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-us-x-russia-military-clash-by-december-31-2026-775/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →