POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · POLITICS

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

YES · live
89.5¢
NO · live
10.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-abelardo-de-la-espriella-win-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election · fresh · feed 0s old
realized vol (ann.)
—
max drawdown
—
sharpe
—
ulcer index
—
RMS drawdown
pain index
—
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
—
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
—
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
—
implied (price-only)
bars used
0
insufficient
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
  • insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-abelardo-de-la-espriella-win-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
89.5¢
NO · live
10.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.8796 · σ=0.0127 · range [0.8550, 0.8950] · R²=0.384▲ RISING +3.47%σ NORMAL 1.44%LAST 0.89500.89500.88500.87500.86500.8550μ = 0.8796max 0.8950min 0.8550dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.38μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 89.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 89.5%NO 10.5%YES89.5%89.50¢ · odds 1/1.12
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.485 / 1.00 bits (48%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
89.5%89.5¢1.12×▬ +0.00pp
NO
10.5%10.5¢9.52×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,300 · μ=54.2 · σ=96.6 · CV=1.78BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=170100200300400μ = 5440050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1300bp moved · peak 400bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5ms
▲YES mid
89.50¢ (89.50%)
▼NO mid
10.50¢ (10.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$96.8k
≋liquidity $
$119.1k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8796 · σ=0.0127 · range [0.8550, 0.8950] · R²=0.384▲ RISING +3.47%σ NORMAL 1.44%LAST 0.89500.89500.88500.87500.86500.8550μ = 0.8796max 0.8950min 0.8550dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.38μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 89.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1204 · σ=0.0127 · range [0.1050, 0.1450] · R²=0.384▼ FALLING -22.22%σ HIGH 10.51%LAST 0.10500.14500.13500.12500.11500.1050μ = 0.1204max 0.1450min 0.1050dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.38μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 10.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0008 · σ=0.0100 · skew=-1.75 (left-skewed) · kurt=6.12 (leptokurtic (fat tails))15118401-3.70ppbin -3.70pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin -3.70pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak-3.10pp-2.50pp-1.90pp-1.30pp1-0.70ppbin -0.70pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin -0.70pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak15-0.10ppbin -0.10pp · n=15 · 100.0% peakbin -0.10pp · n=15 · 100.0% peak20.50ppbin 0.50pp · n=2 · 13.3% peakbin 0.50pp · n=2 · 13.3% peak31.10ppbin 1.10pp · n=3 · 20.0% peakbin 1.10pp · n=3 · 20.0% peak21.70ppbin 1.70pp · n=2 · 13.3% peakbin 1.70pp · n=2 · 13.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-1.85 · kurt=6.64 · near 10 / mid 12 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.84 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-1.77σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.40)
μ MEAN87.96¢95% CI: [87.46¢, 88.46¢]
σ STD DEV1.27ppσ² = 1.603 · CV = 1.44%
med MEDIAN87.50¢Q₁ 87.00¢ · Q₃ 89.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 4.00pp · IQR 2.50pp (1.349σ→1.71pp)
min 85.50¢Q₁ 87.00¢med 87.50¢Q₃ 89.50¢max 89.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.017approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.398platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.36
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.68
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.16
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.192within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.170lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.941strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+3.784significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.941
H = 0.941STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=5
k=1-0.192k=2-0.170k=3+0.038k=4+0.064k=5 ★-0.4520+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.78)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.78)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID569366
SLUGwill-abelardo-de…ial-election
CATEGORYPolitics
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (90¢)
PRIMARY · YES89.50¢implied prob 89.50% · decimal odds 1.12×
COUNTER · NO10.50¢implied prob 10.50% · decimal odds 9.52×
89.50¢
10.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME96.77k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY119.15k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (90¢)|primary − counter| = 0.790 · entropy 0.485 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 89.5%NO 10.5%YES p̂89.5%H = 0.485 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.12×(90¢)NO9.52×(11¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.485 bits (48% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-21 14:00 UTC
6days
18hrs
49min
6.78 days·θ = 6.202 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 89.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 10.5%)
current: $0.8950 · expected return per side: $0.10 on YES hit · $0.90 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+3.4dRESOLVESP projection · σ=1.27% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 6.202 pp/day
now6.78d left
6.202 pp/day×1.00
−25%5.09d left
7.161 pp/day×1.15
−50%3.39d left
8.770 pp/day×1.41
−75%1.70d left
12.403 pp/day×2.00
−90%16.28h left
19.611 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.00% · worst -4.00% · typical |Δ| 0.54%MILD BULLISH +3.00%BEST+2.00%12hWORST-4.00%17hTYPICAL |Δ|0.54%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+3.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.38% · Σ +3.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +3.00%+3.00%-1.00%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h1.00% · 2h1.00% · 2h1.00%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h-1.00% · 6h-1.00% · 6h-1.00%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.50% · 8h0.50% · 8h0.50%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.50% · 11h0.50% · 11h0.50%11h2.00% · 12h2.00% · 12h2.00%12h★ BEST0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h-4.00% · 17h-4.00% · 17h-4.00%17h▼ WORST2.00% · 18h2.00% · 18h2.00%18h1.00% · 19h1.00% · 19h1.00%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h1.00% · 22h1.00% · 22h1.00%22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+3.00%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 1BREADTH29% up · 8% down · 63% flat
7 up bars · 2 down · best 2.00% · worst -4.00% · typical |Δ| 0.542%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +2.90%FINAL+2.90%MAX DD-4.00%RECOVERYONGOING · 8 barsMAX RUN-UP+3.01%UNDERWATER14/25 (56%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0290 · peak 1.0301 · range [0.9889, 1.0301]1.03010.9889break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0301UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.00% · moderate0%-4.00%▼ TROUGH -4.00%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -4.00%bar 18-25 · 8 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.00%bar 7-12 · 6 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.00%)RECOVERYongoing · 8 barsTIME UNDER WATER56% of session · 14/25 bars
final equity 1.0290 (2.90%) · max DD -4.00% · time-under-water 14/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −8 (37% positive) · μ=15.87 · σ=33.79MIXED EDGELAST 60.42 (+1.32σ vs μ)76.4238.210.00-38.21-76.42μ = 15.870.000.000.000.00-15.87-15.87-15.87-15.87-15.87-15.870.000.0060.4260.4260.4260.4248.6848.6848.6848.6848.6848.68-15.87-15.87-15.87-15.87-7.64-7.64-7.64-7.64-7.64-7.640.000.0076.4276.4260.4260.42v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 60.415 · range [-15.87, 76.42] · μ 15.866 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=102.1009 · σ=62.0299 · range [46.0109, 196.3263] · R²=0.367▼ FALLING -18.35%σ EXTREME 60.75%LAST 48.3322196.3263158.7474121.168683.589746.0109μ = 102.1009max 196.3263min 46.0109dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.37μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 48.33% · range [46.01%, 196.33%] · μ 102.10% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −14 (11% positive) · μ=-0.122 · σ=0.162MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.333 (-1.31σ vs μ)0.4890.2440.000-0.244-0.489μ = -0.1220.0000.0000.0000.000-0.075-0.075-0.040-0.040-0.040-0.0400.0000.0000.0830.083-0.167-0.167-0.067-0.067-0.067-0.067-0.002-0.002-0.006-0.006-0.489-0.489-0.305-0.305-0.297-0.297-0.297-0.297-0.273-0.2730.0670.067-0.333-0.333v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.333 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
88.8991
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.6895
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1209
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.2858
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1836
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.9810
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3266
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (5 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5186
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0375
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.0429
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2970
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.683 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.28e-4 · top T=3.43h (26.4%) · top-3 cover 52.6%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)4.1e-43.0e-42.0e-41.0e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.24e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.24e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.37e-4 · 8.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.37e-4 · 8.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.27e-4 · 8.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.27e-4 · 8.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.92e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.92e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.18e-5 · 1.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.18e-5 · 1.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.27e-4 · 8.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.27e-4 · 8.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.06e-4 · 26.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.06e-4 · 26.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.75e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.75e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.18e-4 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.18e-4 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.92e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.92e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.38e-4 · 8.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.38e-4 · 8.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.67e-4 · 17.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.67e-4 · 17.3% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=2.00h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 26.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.540e-3

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 6.8 d · σ/bar 1.106pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 14.11ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0940 · n = 25⚠ low confidence · n < 100
μ per bar
+0.125pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
1.106pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
5.42pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move7d
14.11pp
σ × √162.82552916666666
Terminal variancebinary
0.0940
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
89.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 1.69pp · ES₉₅ 2.16pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.125pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.24⊘ disabled · n < 30
VaR 95%
1.69pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
2.16pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
4.5pp
peak 89.5¢ → trough 85.5¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
89.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.117
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-852
risk $852 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.12 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$11.73
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 89.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.485 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.485 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.16 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
3.25 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
87037476560262355019736573472997730954875286944171789280729969665019434635807
NO token ID
93119283163420984666329627600000273753909488383271496422725436610044958733622
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 19:10:28 UTC
Snapshot age
5ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 19:10:28 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
6afddf1b2981f626e07cd9540284bbc54d44621468bb3665c5a22832982d5b12 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDSpain89.5¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?0¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,752.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,662.55HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.35

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Politics

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.895000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
111.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.258
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.065
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-abelardo-de-la-espriella-win-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.90000055.87bp0.9000001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.90006156.54bp0.9100002FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.937967480.08bp0.9800009FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.89000055.87bp0.8900001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.884180120.90bp0.8800002FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.7370881764.38bp0.30000051FILLED

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 25 bars
Realized vol (annualised)
—
σ per bar = 0.012637
Mean return (annualised)
—
μ per bar = 0.001421
Sharpe (rf=0)
—
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.47%
peak 0.90 → trough 0.85 over 5 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-abelardo-de-la-espriella-win-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election/risk · same metrics, JSON