TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “prime · minister · politics” (11 markets)

Top terms: primeministerpoliticsisraelethiopiaavigdor

★ Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?3.5¢ YES · $52.5k 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?30.0¢ YES · $222.3k 24h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?0.4¢ YES · $29.5k 24h
Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?0.7¢ YES · $3.47M 24h
Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?0.5¢ YES · $202.4k 24h
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?0.8¢ YES · $41.5k 24h
Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?0.2¢ YES · $164.2k 24h
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?0.6¢ YES · $37.9k 24h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?0.9¢ YES · $44.3k 24h
Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?3.1¢ YES · $148.4k 24h
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?0.5¢ YES · $42.7k 24h

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peer	t-stat	n	Verdict
Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	-5.411	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	-4.347	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	-4.104	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	-4.072	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	-3.567	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	-3.212	117	no rejection · independent
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	-2.676	169	no rejection · independent
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	-2.645	169	no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-avigdor-lieberman-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel · fresh · feed 0s old

realized vol (ann.)

—

max drawdown

—

sharpe

—

ulcer index

—

RMS drawdown

pain index

—

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

—

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

—

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

—

upside/downside

roll spread

—

implied (price-only)

bars used

insufficient

spread

—

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%

insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-avigdor-lieberman-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →