POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

YES · live
98.0¢
NO · live
1.9¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-france-advance-to-the-knockout-stages-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
38.85%
max drawdown
0.10%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.04%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.02%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.10%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
6.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
6.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
361
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-france-advance-to-the-knockout-stages-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH18ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
98.0¢
NO · live
1.9¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.9664 · σ=0.0058 · range [0.9605, 0.9820] · R²=0.414▲ RISING +1.71%σ LOW 0.60%LAST 0.98050.98200.97660.97120.96590.9605μ = 0.9664max 0.9820min 0.9605dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.41μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 98.05¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 98.0%NO 1.9%YES98.0%98.05¢ · odds 1/1.02
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.139 / 1.00 bits (14%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
98.0%98.0¢1.02×▬ +0.00pp
NO
1.9%1.9¢51.28×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=415 · μ=17.3 · σ=33.4 · CV=1.93BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=2004182124165μ = 1716550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 415bp moved · peak 165bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
18ms
▲YES mid
98.05¢ (98.05%)
▼NO mid
1.95¢ (1.95%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$133.3k
≋liquidity $
$42.9k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9664 · σ=0.0058 · range [0.9605, 0.9820] · R²=0.414▲ RISING +1.71%σ LOW 0.60%LAST 0.98050.98200.97660.97120.96590.9605μ = 0.9664max 0.9820min 0.9605dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.41μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 98.05¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0336 · σ=0.0058 · range [0.0180, 0.0395] · R²=0.414▼ FALLING -45.83%σ EXTREME 17.28%LAST 0.01950.03950.03410.02870.02340.0180μ = 0.0336max 0.0395min 0.0180dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.41μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 1.95¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0006 · σ=0.0035 · skew=3.21 (right-skewed) · kurt=11.00 (leptokurtic (fat tails))13107306-0.20ppbin -0.20pp · n=6 · 46.2% peakbin -0.20pp · n=6 · 46.2% peak13-0.01ppbin -0.01pp · n=13 · 100.0% peakbin -0.01pp · n=13 · 100.0% peak20.19ppbin 0.19pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakbin 0.19pp · n=2 · 15.4% peak20.38ppbin 0.38pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakbin 0.38pp · n=2 · 15.4% peak0.58pp0.77pp0.97pp1.16pp1.36pp11.55ppbin 1.55pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin 1.55pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=3.36 · kurt=12.01 · near 9 / mid 13 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.78 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALTHIN LOWER TAIL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+2.31σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=2.02)
μ MEAN96.64¢95% CI: [96.41¢, 96.86¢]
σ STD DEV0.58ppσ² = 0.338 · CV = 0.60%
med MEDIAN96.50¢Q₁ 96.35¢ · Q₃ 96.60¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 2.15pp · IQR 0.25pp (1.349σ→0.78pp)
min 96.05¢Q₁ 96.35¢med 96.50¢Q₃ 96.60¢max 98.20¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.788right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.017leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.23
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 3.14
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.70
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.187within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.008lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.923strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+4.030significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.923
H = 0.923STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.187k=2+0.008k=3-0.136k=4+0.001k=5+0.1030+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.03)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.03)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2070763
SLUGwill-france-adva…fa-world-cup
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (98¢)
PRIMARY · YES98.05¢implied prob 98.05% · decimal odds 1.02×
COUNTER · NO1.95¢implied prob 1.95% · decimal odds 51.28×
98.05¢
1.95¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME133.28k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY42.88k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (98¢)|primary − counter| = 0.961 · entropy 0.139 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 98.0%NO 1.9%YES p̂98.0%H = 0.139 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.02×(98¢)NO51.28×(2¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.139 bits (14% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-28 00:00 UTC
13days
06hrs
54min
13.29 days·θ = 2.847 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 98.0%)
NO →$0.00(P = 1.9%)
current: $0.9805 · expected return per side: $0.02 on YES hit · $0.98 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+6.6dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.58% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 2.847 pp/day
now13.29d left
2.847 pp/day×1.00
−25%9.97d left
3.288 pp/day×1.15
−50%6.64d left
4.027 pp/day×1.41
−75%3.32d left
5.695 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.33d left
9.004 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.65% · worst -0.30% · typical |Δ| 0.17%MILD BULLISH +1.65%BEST+1.65%22hWORST-0.30%5hTYPICAL |Δ|0.17%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.65%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.35%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.25%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.22% · Σ +1.75%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.65%+1.80%-0.35%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.20% · 3h0.20% · 3h0.20%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h-0.30% · 5h-0.30% · 5h-0.30%5h▼ WORST-0.10% · 6h-0.10% · 6h-0.10%6h-0.15% · 7h-0.15% · 7h-0.15%7h0.05% · 8h0.05% · 8h0.05%8h0.05% · 9h0.05% · 9h0.05%9h0.35% · 10h0.35% · 10h0.35%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h-0.20% · 15h-0.20% · 15h-0.20%15h0.05% · 16h0.05% · 16h0.05%16h0.35% · 17h0.35% · 17h0.35%17h0.05% · 18h0.05% · 18h0.05%18h-0.20% · 19h-0.20% · 19h-0.20%19h0.15% · 20h0.15% · 20h0.15%20h-0.15% · 21h-0.15% · 21h-0.15%21h1.65% · 22h1.65% · 22h1.65%22h★ BEST-0.15% · 23h-0.15% · 23h-0.15%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+1.75%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH38% up · 29% down · 33% flat
9 up bars · 7 down · best 1.65% · worst -0.30% · typical |Δ| 0.173%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.65%FINAL+1.65%MAX DD-0.55%RECOVERYONGOING · 12 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.80%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0165 · peak 1.0180 · range [0.9965, 1.0180]1.01800.9965break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0180UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.55% · shallow0%-0.55%▼ TROUGH -0.55%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -0.55%bar 6-17 · 12 bars · recovered#2 -0.20%bar 20-22 · 3 bars · recovered#3 -0.15%bar 24-25 · 2 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.55%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 1.0165 (1.65%) · max DD -0.55% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +13 / −6 (68% positive) · μ=8.91 · σ=28.65PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 28.41 (+0.68σ vs μ)51.2625.630.00-25.63-51.26μ = 8.91-19.10-19.10-32.39-32.39-27.02-27.02-51.26-51.26-7.00-7.0017.8217.8228.4828.4851.2651.2644.4944.4913.1313.13-26.58-26.5817.5317.5322.0022.003.833.8314.7614.7619.4019.4041.9941.9929.6129.6128.4128.41v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 28.405 · range [-51.26, 51.26] · μ 8.914 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=23.7986 · σ=18.9523 · range [8.2395, 66.8183] · R²=0.427▲ RISING +337.18%σ EXTREME 79.64%LAST 66.818366.818352.173637.528922.88428.2395μ = 23.7986max 66.8183min 8.2395dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.43μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 66.82% · range [8.24%, 66.82%] · μ 23.80% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-0.052 · σ=0.192CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.361 (-1.60σ vs μ)0.4030.2020.000-0.202-0.403μ = -0.0520.1920.1920.2110.2110.0500.050-0.033-0.0330.2200.2200.1070.107-0.093-0.093-0.167-0.167-0.105-0.105-0.004-0.004-0.403-0.4030.0720.0720.0950.0950.0620.062-0.109-0.109-0.217-0.217-0.144-0.144-0.370-0.370-0.361-0.361v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.361 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
283.8579
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.8446
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8709
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.6218
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8577
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5922
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5537
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5323
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0344
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.6110
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5412
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.814 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.45e-5 · top T=2.00h (18.1%) · top-3 cover 43.6%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.2e-52.4e-51.6e-57.9e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.45e-6 · 4.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.45e-6 · 4.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.38e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.38e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.22e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.22e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.08e-5 · 11.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.08e-5 · 11.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.10e-5 · 12.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.10e-5 · 12.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.29e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.29e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.80e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.80e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.26e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.26e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.88e-5 · 10.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.88e-5 · 10.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.35e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.35e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.02e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.02e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.15e-5 · 18.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.15e-5 · 18.1% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 18.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.745e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (361 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 13.3 d · σ/bar 0.029pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.52ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0191 · n = 361✓ n = 361
μ per bar
+0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.029pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.14pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move13d
0.52pp
σ × √318.91249305555556
Terminal variancebinary
0.0191
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
98.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.05pp · ES₉₅ 0.06pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 361
VaR 95%
0.05pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.06pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
0.1pp
peak 98.2¢ → trough 98.0¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
98.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.020
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-5028
risk $5028 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.02 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1.99
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 98.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.139 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.139 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.03 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
5.68 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
109164820858019364499869219059432917793172849955088340352950522297549173260574
NO token ID
25640020642083869185507768927386437602618055751776692941043414901780948611873
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 17:05:15 UTC
Snapshot age
18ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 17:05:15 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
c14dd42b48e8021deaddcd9a6a4ab3cbda4b877d0736fb4e4bddc97596c07fac · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.1¢HL PREDSpain89.5¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?2¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,980.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,663.75HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.16

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$1.69K
bid $160 · ask $1.53K
Mid price
0.980500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
71.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.913
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.980
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-france-advance-to-the-knockout-stages-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.98400035.70bp0.9840001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.98743670.74bp0.9880003FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.99027799.72bp0.9970009FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.969506112.13bp0.9600006FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.953848271.82bp0.94200014FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0067409931.26bp0.00100059PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 361 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
39.71%
σ per bar = 0.000300
Mean return (annualised)
2489.50%
μ per bar = 0.000014
Sharpe (rf=0)
62.70
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
0.10%
peak 0.98 → trough 0.98 over 233 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-france-advance-to-the-knockout-stages-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/risk · same metrics, JSON