POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · POLITICS

Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

YES · live
0.6¢
NO · live
99.4¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-gilad-erdan-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
178
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-gilad-erdan-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.6¢
NO · live
99.4¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0085 · σ=0.0081 · range [0.0025, 0.0275] · R²=0.094▲ RISING +140.00%σ EXTREME 94.79%LAST 0.00600.02750.02120.01500.00870.0025μ = 0.0085max 0.0275min 0.0025dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.09μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.60¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.6%NO 99.4%NO99.4%99.40¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.053 / 1.00 bits (5%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.6%0.6¢166.67×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.4%99.4¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=735 · μ=30.6 · σ=60.7 · CV=1.98BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=13063125188250μ = 3125050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 735bp moved · peak 250bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5ms
▲YES mid
0.60¢ (0.60%)
▼NO mid
99.40¢ (99.40%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$37.9k
≋liquidity $
$77.1k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0085 · σ=0.0081 · range [0.0025, 0.0275] · R²=0.094▲ RISING +140.00%σ EXTREME 94.79%LAST 0.00600.02750.02120.01500.00870.0025μ = 0.0085max 0.0275min 0.0025dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.09μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.60¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9915 · σ=0.0081 · range [0.9725, 0.9975] · R²=0.094▼ FALLING -0.35%σ LOW 0.81%LAST 0.99400.99750.99130.98500.97880.9725μ = 0.9915max 0.9975min 0.9725dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.09μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.40¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0010 · σ=0.0063 · skew=1.61 (right-skewed) · kurt=4.59 (leptokurtic (fat tails))15118402-0.92ppbin -0.92pp · n=2 · 13.3% peakbin -0.92pp · n=2 · 13.3% peak2-0.56ppbin -0.56pp · n=2 · 13.3% peakbin -0.56pp · n=2 · 13.3% peak3-0.20ppbin -0.20pp · n=3 · 20.0% peakbin -0.20pp · n=3 · 20.0% peak150.16ppbin 0.16pp · n=15 · 100.0% peakbin 0.16pp · n=15 · 100.0% peak0.52pp0.88pp11.24ppbin 1.24pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 1.24pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak1.60pp1.96pp12.32ppbin 2.32pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 2.32pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=2.14 · kurt=6.13 · near 8 / mid 13 / far 3 · OLS slope=0.81 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+1.68σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.23)
μ MEAN0.85¢95% CI: [0.53¢, 1.17¢]
σ STD DEV0.81ppσ² = 0.649 · CV = 94.79%
med MEDIAN0.60¢Q₁ 0.25¢ · Q₃ 1.25¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 2.50pp · IQR 1.00pp (1.349σ→1.09pp)
min 0.25¢Q₁ 0.25¢med 0.60¢Q₃ 1.25¢max 2.75¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.233right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.215mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.31
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.09
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.10
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.23 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.231within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.280lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.194strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.545fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.194
H = 1.194STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=3
k=1-0.231k=2-0.280k=3 ★+0.432k=4-0.143k=5-0.1910+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.55)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.23 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.55)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID682722
SLUGwill-gilad-erdan-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel
CATEGORYPolitics
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (99¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.60¢implied prob 0.60% · decimal odds 166.67×
COUNTER · NO99.40¢implied prob 99.40% · decimal odds 1.01×
0.60¢
99.40¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME37.92k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY77.14k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.988 · entropy 0.053 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.6%NO 99.4%YES p̂0.6%H = 0.053 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES166.67×(1¢)NO1.01×(99¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.053 bits (5% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
199days
03hrs
18min
199.14 days·θ = 3.947 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 0.6%)
NO →$0.00(P = 99.4%)
current: $0.0060 · expected return per side: $0.99 on YES hit · $0.01 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+99.6dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.81% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 3.947 pp/day
now199.14d left
3.947 pp/day×1.00
−25%149.35d left
4.558 pp/day×1.15
−50%99.57d left
5.582 pp/day×1.41
−75%49.78d left
7.894 pp/day×2.00
−90%19.91d left
12.482 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.50% · worst -1.10% · typical |Δ| 0.31%MILD BULLISH +0.35%BEST+2.50%11hWORST-1.10%13hTYPICAL |Δ|0.31%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.35%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.20% · Σ +1.60%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.16% · Σ -1.25%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.35%+2.50%0.00%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h2.50% · 11h2.50% · 11h2.50%11h★ BEST-0.30% · 12h-0.30% · 12h-0.30%12h-1.10% · 13h-1.10% · 13h-1.10%13h▼ WORST1.35% · 14h1.35% · 14h1.35%14h-0.85% · 15h-0.85% · 15h-0.85%15h-0.60% · 16h-0.60% · 16h-0.60%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h-0.05% · 18h-0.05% · 18h-0.05%18h-0.50% · 19h-0.50% · 19h-0.50%19h-0.10% · 20h-0.10% · 20h-0.10%20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.60%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 3BREADTH8% up · 29% down · 63% flat
2 up bars · 7 down · best 2.50% · worst -1.10% · typical |Δ| 0.306%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.30%FINAL+0.30%MAX DD-2.15%RECOVERYONGOING · 13 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.50%UNDERWATER13/25 (52%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0030 · peak 1.0250 · range [1.0000, 1.0250]1.02501.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0250UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.15% · moderate0%-2.15%▼ TROUGH -2.15%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -2.15%bar 13-25 · 13 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.15%)RECOVERYongoing · 13 barsTIME UNDER WATER52% of session · 13/25 bars
final equity 1.0030 (0.30%) · max DD -2.15% · time-under-water 13/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −8 (32% positive) · μ=-12.37 · σ=36.59UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -46.80 (-0.94σ vs μ)93.7946.890.00-46.89-93.79μ = -12.370.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.0038.2138.2132.6232.6214.1514.1529.5329.5317.9517.9510.8710.87-26.73-26.73-22.20-22.20-12.90-12.90-93.79-93.79-72.46-72.46-51.73-51.73-51.73-51.73-46.80-46.80v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -46.797 · range [-93.79, 38.21] · μ -12.368 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=54.9431 · σ=50.3170 · range [0.0000, 134.2578] · R²=0.013▬ FLATσ EXTREME 91.58%LAST 18.7190134.2578100.693467.128933.56450.0000μ = 54.9431max 134.2578min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 18.72% · range [0.00%, 134.26%] · μ 54.94% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −12 (11% positive) · μ=-0.151 · σ=0.211MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.150 (+1.42σ vs μ)0.5670.2830.000-0.283-0.567μ = -0.1510.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000-0.033-0.033-0.326-0.326-0.117-0.117-0.301-0.301-0.391-0.391-0.235-0.235-0.563-0.563-0.567-0.567-0.255-0.2550.0980.098-0.287-0.287-0.037-0.037-0.009-0.0090.1500.150v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.150 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
83.7474
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
11.0474
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0499
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.2180
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2050
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.1226
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9024
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (4 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2722
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2307
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.4672
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1423
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.554 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.46e-5 · top T=3.00h (23.7%) · top-3 cover 59.9%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.3e-49.5e-56.3e-53.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.60e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.60e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.59e-5 · 6.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.59e-5 · 6.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.67e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.67e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.74e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.74e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.34e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.34e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.31e-5 · 8.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.31e-5 · 8.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.17e-4 · 21.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.17e-4 · 21.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.27e-4 · 23.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.27e-4 · 23.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.77e-5 · 14.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.77e-5 · 14.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.41e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.41e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.75e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.75e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.60e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.60e-7 · 0.0% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 23.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.358e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (178 bars · effective 1753200 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 199.1 d · σ/bar 0.000pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.00ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0060 · n = 178✓ n = 178
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.000pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.00pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move199d
0.00pp
σ × √4779.3099975000005
Terminal variancebinary
0.0060
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.6¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.00pp · ES₉₅ 0.00pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.00pp · unique ratio 0.01⚠ low confidence · n < 200
VaR 95%
0.00pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.00pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
0.0pp
peak 0.6¢ → trough 0.6¢
Median step
0.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.6%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
166.667
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+16567
$100 wins $16567
FractionalUK
165.67 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$16566.67
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.6%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.053 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.053 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
7.38 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.01 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
73391412196952346536768049629984781694862224381955045702486880678656173160147
NO token ID
103496802919442842131486449605667106843698739362292182931948753344546982685299
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 20:41:23 UTC
Snapshot age
5ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 20:41:24 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
4b57a0b2c5a225f7a758151ebf064b382431c02d6c07ce873e6f4f6ad5d03c6d · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDSpain90.0¢HL PREDUruguay65.4¢POLYMARKETWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?45¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?0¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,027HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,670.8HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.7

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Politics

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.006000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6666.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.149
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.896
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-gilad-erdan-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.03184343071.47bp0.07000016FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.126954201590.52bp0.78000049FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.560789924649.00bp0.99500066FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0010398268.27bp0.0010003PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0010398268.27bp0.0010003PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0010398268.27bp0.0010003PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 178 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
0.00%
σ per bar = 0.000000
Mean return (annualised)
0.00%
μ per bar = 0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
0.00
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
0.00%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 0 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-gilad-erdan-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel/risk · same metrics, JSON