POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · IRAN CLOSES ITS AIRSPACE BY...?

Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?

YES · live
21.0¢
NO · live
79.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-july-31-20260609184136056 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
689.63%
max drawdown
51.72%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
28.27%
RMS drawdown
pain index
21.40%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
51.72%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.11
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.11
upside/downside
roll spread
27.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
424
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-july-31-20260609184136056/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
21.0¢
NO · live
79.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.3090 · σ=0.1230 · range [0.1600, 0.7250] · R²=0.340▼ FALLING -40.74%σ EXTREME 39.80%LAST 0.16000.72500.58370.44250.30130.1600μ = 0.3090max 0.7250min 0.1600dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 16.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 21.0%NO 79.0%NO79.0%79.00¢ · odds 1/1.27
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.741 / 1.00 bits (74%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
21.0%21.0¢4.76×▬ +0.00pp
NO
79.0%79.0¢1.27×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=12,500 · μ=520.8 · σ=874.0 · CV=1.68BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=2107501,5002,2503,000μ = 5213,00050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 12500bp moved · peak 3000bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2ms
▲YES mid
21.00¢ (21.00%)
▼NO mid
79.00¢ (79.00%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$31.7k
≋liquidity $
$7.5k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.3090 · σ=0.1230 · range [0.1600, 0.7250] · R²=0.340▼ FALLING -40.74%σ EXTREME 39.80%LAST 0.16000.72500.58370.44250.30130.1600μ = 0.3090max 0.7250min 0.1600dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 16.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.6954 · σ=0.1264 · range [0.2750, 0.8400] · R²=0.216▲ RISING +15.07%σ EXTREME 18.17%LAST 0.84000.84000.69870.55750.41630.2750μ = 0.6954max 0.8400min 0.2750dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.22μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 84.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0075 · σ=0.0946 · skew=-0.33 (symmetric) · kurt=3.01 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1186301-27.00ppbin -27.00pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -27.00pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak-21.00pp1-15.00ppbin -15.00pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -15.00pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak1-9.00ppbin -9.00pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -9.00pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak6-3.00ppbin -3.00pp · n=6 · 54.5% peakbin -3.00pp · n=6 · 54.5% peak113.00ppbin 3.00pp · n=11 · 100.0% peakbin 3.00pp · n=11 · 100.0% peak39.00ppbin 9.00pp · n=3 · 27.3% peakbin 9.00pp · n=3 · 27.3% peak15.00pp21.00pp127.00ppbin 27.00pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 27.00pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.06 · kurt=4.18 · near 6 / mid 17 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.89 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=2.70)
μ MEAN30.90¢95% CI: [26.08¢, 35.72¢]
σ STD DEV12.30ppσ² = 151.250 · CV = 39.80%
med MEDIAN27.00¢Q₁ 21.50¢ · Q₃ 39.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 56.50pp · IQR 18.00pp (1.349σ→16.59pp)
min 16.00¢Q₁ 21.50¢med 27.00¢Q₃ 39.50¢max 72.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.569right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.702leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.32
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.92
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.59
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.192within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.083lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.796strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+3.439significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.796
H = 0.796STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.192k=2+0.083k=3-0.085k=4-0.027k=5+0.1160+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.44)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.78very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.44)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2481464
SLUGwill-iran-close-…609184136056
CATEGORYIran closes its airspace by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (79¢)
PRIMARY · YES21.00¢implied prob 21.00% · decimal odds 4.76×
COUNTER · NO79.00¢implied prob 79.00% · decimal odds 1.27×
21.00¢
79.00¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME31.69k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY7.50k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (79¢)|primary − counter| = 0.580 · entropy 0.741 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 21.0%NO 79.0%YES p̂21.0%H = 0.741 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES4.76×(21¢)NO1.27×(79¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.741 bits (74% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-08-01 03:59 UTC
47days
05hrs
58min
47.25 days·θ = 60.249 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 21.0%)
NO →$0.00(P = 79.0%)
current: $0.2100 · expected return per side: $0.79 on YES hit · $0.21 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+23.6dRESOLVESP projection · σ=12.30% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 60.249 pp/day
now47.25d left
60.249 pp/day×1.00
−25%35.44d left
69.570 pp/day×1.15
−50%23.62d left
85.206 pp/day×1.41
−75%11.81d left
120.499 pp/day×2.00
−90%4.72d left
190.526 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 30.00% · worst -30.00% · typical |Δ| 5.21%BEARISH SESSION -11.00%BEST+30.00%21hWORST-30.00%22hTYPICAL |Δ|5.21%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-11.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.86% · Σ -6.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +1.06% · Σ +8.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.50% · Σ +4.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -11.00%+45.50%-11.00%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h-3.00% · 2h-3.00% · 2h-3.00%2h-2.50% · 3h-2.50% · 3h-2.50%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h-0.50% · 6h-0.50% · 6h-0.50%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h6.50% · 10h6.50% · 10h6.50%10h-0.50% · 11h-0.50% · 11h-0.50%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h1.00% · 13h1.00% · 13h1.00%13h0.50% · 14h0.50% · 14h0.50%14h1.00% · 15h1.00% · 15h1.00%15h10.00% · 16h10.00% · 16h10.00%16h2.00% · 17h2.00% · 17h2.00%17h6.00% · 18h6.00% · 18h6.00%18h-4.50% · 19h-4.50% · 19h-4.50%19h-0.50% · 20h-0.50% · 20h-0.50%20h30.00% · 21h30.00% · 21h30.00%21h★ BEST-30.00% · 22h-30.00% · 22h-30.00%22h▼ WORST-9.00% · 23h-9.00% · 23h-9.00%23h-17.50% · 24h-17.50% · 24h-17.50%24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+8.50%)RUNSup max 6 · down max 3BREADTH33% up · 38% down · 29% flat
8 up bars · 9 down · best 30.00% · worst -30.00% · typical |Δ| 5.208%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -21.07%FINAL-21.07%MAX DD-47.45%RECOVERYONGOING · 3 barsMAX RUN-UP+50.19%UNDERWATER15/25 (60%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.7893 · peak 1.5019 · range [0.7893, 1.5019]1.50190.7893break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.5019UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -47.45% · severe0%-47.45%▼ TROUGH -47.45%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -47.45%bar 23-25 · 3 bars · ONGOING#2 -5.90%bar 3-10 · 8 bars · recovered#3 -4.98%bar 20-21 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsevere (max -47.45%)RECOVERYongoing · 3 barsTIME UNDER WATER60% of session · 15/25 bars
final equity 0.7893 (-21.07%) · max DD -47.45% · time-under-water 15/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +13 / −6 (68% positive) · μ=17.11 · σ=45.73PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -24.31 (-0.91σ vs μ)84.1542.070.00-42.07-84.15μ = 17.11-67.90-67.90-67.90-67.90-46.80-46.80-38.21-38.2134.6434.6431.2431.2434.6434.6441.0841.0844.6244.6251.8451.8447.2447.2459.9459.9484.1584.1546.9946.9943.0243.0254.6854.682.432.43-6.36-6.36-24.31-24.31v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -24.312 · range [-67.90, 84.15] · μ 17.107 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=556.3052 · σ=618.9887 · range [19.1050, 1891.6239] · R²=0.658▲ RISING +1366.24%σ EXTREME 111.27%LAST 1891.62391891.62391423.4942955.3644487.234719.1050μ = 556.3052max 1891.6239min 19.1050dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.66μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 1891.62% · range [19.10%, 1891.62%] · μ 556.31% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.171 · σ=0.200MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.276 (-0.52σ vs μ)0.5080.2540.000-0.254-0.508μ = -0.1710.1050.1050.3680.368-0.100-0.100-0.233-0.233-0.014-0.014-0.266-0.266-0.281-0.281-0.329-0.329-0.380-0.380-0.173-0.1730.0250.025-0.071-0.071-0.205-0.205-0.308-0.308-0.153-0.153-0.107-0.107-0.508-0.508-0.352-0.352-0.276-0.276v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.276 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
30.3292
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.8767
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8667
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.9431
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3223
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.2423
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2141
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (7 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5101
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0394
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.9304
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3522
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.717 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.04e-2 · top T=2.18h (15.7%) · top-3 cover 41.0%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)2.0e-21.5e-29.8e-34.9e-30.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 1.15e-2 · 9.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.15e-2 · 9.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.87e-3 · 7.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.87e-3 · 7.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.79e-3 · 3.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.79e-3 · 3.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.59e-3 · 5.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.59e-3 · 5.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.13e-2 · 9.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.13e-2 · 9.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.05e-2 · 8.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.05e-2 · 8.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.20e-3 · 5.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.20e-3 · 5.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.94e-3 · 3.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.94e-3 · 3.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.56e-2 · 12.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.56e-2 · 12.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.58e-2 · 12.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.58e-2 · 12.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.96e-2 · 15.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.96e-2 · 15.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.82e-3 · 7.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.82e-3 · 7.1% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.18h#2T=2.40h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 15.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.246e-1

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (424 bars · effective 1753200 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 47.2 d · σ/bar 0.521pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 17.54ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1659 · n = 424✓ n = 424
μ per bar
-0.047pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.521pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
2.55pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move47d
17.54pp
σ × √1133.9789241666667
Terminal variancebinary
0.1659
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
21.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.90pp · ES₉₅ 1.12pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.047pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.50pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 424
VaR 95%
0.90pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
1.12pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
51.7pp
peak 43.5¢ → trough 21.0¢
Median step
1.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
21.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
4.762
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+376
$100 wins $376
FractionalUK
3.76 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$376.19
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 21.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.741 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.741 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.25 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.34 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
63150497379390197911067615315282049119328673837585882786568754047027445944908
NO token ID
84125408160235389074233430913822666019334151245806515262448686445246807565777
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 22:00:15 UTC
Snapshot age
2ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 22:00:15 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
75868ed6b52666198d2137eba6016b7046785822b2bb6afd3a5008b074a7a3e7 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDDraw99.3¢HL PREDSpain91.5¢POLYMARKETWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?1¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?74¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$65,398HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,724HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$63.21

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Iran closes its airspace by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.160000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1250.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.485
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.304
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-july-31-20260609184136056/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.36758712974.21bp0.55000011FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.66317631448.49bp0.89000026FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.76811738007.28bp0.99000034PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0671015806.17bp0.04000012FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0287788201.40bp0.01000015PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0287788201.40bp0.01000015PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 424 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
2249.81%
σ per bar = 0.016991
Mean return (annualised)
-277299.72%
μ per bar = -0.001582
Sharpe (rf=0)
-123.25
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
51.72%
peak 0.43 → trough 0.21 over 368 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-july-31-20260609184136056/risk · same metrics, JSON