TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “airspace · closes · iran” (11 markets)
Top terms: airspaceclosesirancloseisraeljune
- Israel closes its airspace by June 14?1.1¢ YES · $674.9k 24h
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?0.8¢ YES · $533.8k 24h
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?7.5¢ YES · $253.7k 24h
- Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?9.0¢ YES · $25.8k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?31.5¢ YES · $37.7k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?40.0¢ YES · $48.4k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?15.0¢ YES · $50.3k 24h
- ★ Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?21.5¢ YES · $34.3k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?1.8¢ YES · $994.6k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?1.8¢ YES · $432.4k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?10.5¢ YES · $159.0k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -8.251 | 125 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -7.110 | 125 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -7.030 | 125 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -6.587 | 125 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -6.558 | 125 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.153 | 125 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.939 | 125 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.640 | 125 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-july-31-20260609184136056 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
637.31%
max drawdown
63.22%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
41.05%
RMS drawdown
pain index
34.38%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
63.22%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.29
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.29
upside/downside
roll spread
20.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
680
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-july-31-20260609184136056/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →