POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

YES · live
4.2¢
NO · live
95.9¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-julian-alvarez-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
10.49%
max drawdown
3.49%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
1.45%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.93%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.49%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.25
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.25
upside/downside
roll spread
1.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
439
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-julian-alvarez-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
4.2¢
NO · live
95.9¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0427 · σ=0.0017 · range [0.0385, 0.0470] · R²=0.372▼ FALLING -7.87%σ NORMAL 4.10%LAST 0.04100.04700.04490.04270.04060.0385μ = 0.0427max 0.0470min 0.0385dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.37μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 4.10¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 4.2%NO 95.9%NO95.9%95.85¢ · odds 1/1.04
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.249 / 1.00 bits (25%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
4.2%4.2¢24.10×▬ +0.00pp
NO
95.9%95.9¢1.04×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=315 · μ=13.1 · σ=16.9 · CV=1.29BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=18012253750μ = 135050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 315bp moved · peak 50bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5ms
▲YES mid
4.15¢ (4.15%)
▼NO mid
95.85¢ (95.85%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$27.6k
≋liquidity $
$66.5k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0427 · σ=0.0017 · range [0.0385, 0.0470] · R²=0.372▼ FALLING -7.87%σ NORMAL 4.10%LAST 0.04100.04700.04490.04270.04060.0385μ = 0.0427max 0.0470min 0.0385dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.37μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 4.10¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9573 · σ=0.0018 · range [0.9530, 0.9615] · R²=0.372▲ RISING +0.37%σ LOW 0.18%LAST 0.95900.96150.95940.95720.95510.9530μ = 0.9573max 0.9615min 0.9530dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.37μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 95.90¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0001 · σ=0.0020 · skew=0.74 (right-skewed) · kurt=0.75 (mesokurtic)1085302-0.36ppbin -0.36pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin -0.36pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak2-0.27ppbin -0.27pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin -0.27pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak-0.18pp6-0.09ppbin -0.09pp · n=6 · 60.0% peakbin -0.09pp · n=6 · 60.0% peak100.00ppbin 0.00pp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin 0.00pp · n=10 · 100.0% peak10.09ppbin 0.09pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 0.09pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak0.18pp0.27pp10.36ppbin 0.36pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 0.36pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak20.45ppbin 0.45pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin 0.45pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.63 · kurt=0.84 · near 11 / mid 13 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.95 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25MILD DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL
μ MEAN4.27¢95% CI: [4.20¢, 4.34¢]
σ STD DEV0.17ppσ² = 0.031 · CV = 4.10%
med MEDIAN4.25¢Q₁ 4.25¢ · Q₃ 4.30¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.85pp · IQR 0.05pp (1.349σ→0.24pp)
min 3.85¢Q₁ 4.25¢med 4.25¢Q₃ 4.30¢max 4.70¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.210approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.236leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.11
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 4.72
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.86
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.56 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.558negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.107lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.664persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.690significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.664
H = 0.664PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.558k=2+0.107k=3-0.058k=4+0.000k=5-0.0340+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.69)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.56 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.89very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.69)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2069667
SLUGwill-julian-alva…fa-world-cup
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (96¢)
PRIMARY · YES4.15¢implied prob 4.15% · decimal odds 24.10×
COUNTER · NO95.85¢implied prob 95.85% · decimal odds 1.04×
4.15¢
95.85¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME27.60k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY66.47k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (96¢)|primary − counter| = 0.917 · entropy 0.249 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 4.2%NO 95.9%YES p̂4.2%H = 0.249 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES24.10×(4¢)NO1.04×(96¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = -0.00%
K* full
-0.00%
½K half
-0.00%
¼K quarter
-0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.249 bits (25% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-07-20 00:00 UTC
35days
06hrs
57min
35.29 days·θ = 0.857 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 4.2%)
NO →$0.00(P = 95.9%)
current: $0.0415 · expected return per side: $0.96 on YES hit · $0.04 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+17.6dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.17% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 0.857 pp/day
now35.29d left
0.857 pp/day×1.00
−25%26.47d left
0.990 pp/day×1.15
−50%17.64d left
1.212 pp/day×1.41
−75%8.82d left
1.715 pp/day×2.00
−90%3.53d left
2.711 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.50% · worst -0.40% · typical |Δ| 0.13%MILD BEARISH -0.35%BEST+0.50%2hWORST-0.40%18hTYPICAL |Δ|0.13%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.35%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.20%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.10%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.35%+0.25%-0.60%-0.30% · 1h-0.30% · 1h-0.30%1h0.50% · 2h0.50% · 2h0.50%2h★ BEST0.05% · 3h0.05% · 3h0.05%3h-0.30% · 4h-0.30% · 4h-0.30%4h-0.05% · 5h-0.05% · 5h-0.05%5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h-0.10% · 7h-0.10% · 7h-0.10%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.05% · 10h0.05% · 10h0.05%10h-0.05% · 11h-0.05% · 11h-0.05%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h-0.40% · 18h-0.40% · 18h-0.40%18h▼ WORST0.45% · 19h0.45% · 19h0.45%19h-0.35% · 20h-0.35% · 20h-0.35%20h0.35% · 21h0.35% · 21h0.35%21h-0.05% · 22h-0.05% · 22h-0.05%22h-0.10% · 23h-0.10% · 23h-0.10%23h-0.05% · 24h-0.05% · 24h-0.05%24hTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH21% up · 42% down · 38% flat
5 up bars · 10 down · best 0.50% · worst -0.40% · typical |Δ| 0.131%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.35%)FINAL-0.35%MAX DD-0.85%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.25%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9965 · peak 1.0025 · range [0.9940, 1.0025]1.00250.9940break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0025UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.85% · shallow0%-0.85%▼ TROUGH -0.85%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -0.85%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.30%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.85%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9965 (-0.35%) · max DD -0.85% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −10 (21% positive) · μ=-14.62 · σ=21.29UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 12.97 (+1.30σ vs μ)59.8629.930.00-29.93-59.86μ = -14.62-5.30-5.305.875.87-49.85-49.85-59.86-59.86-30.21-30.21-30.21-30.21-30.21-30.210.000.000.000.000.000.00-38.21-38.210.000.00-38.21-38.212.902.90-15.26-15.262.242.240.000.00-4.44-4.4412.9712.97v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 12.969 · range [-59.86, 12.97] · μ -14.620 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=15.5759 · σ=12.5289 · range [0.0000, 32.9138] · R²=0.203▲ RISING +2.14%σ EXTREME 80.44%LAST 28.143432.913824.685416.45698.22850.0000μ = 15.5759max 32.9138min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.20μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 28.14% · range [0.00%, 32.91%] · μ 15.58% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −17 (5% positive) · μ=-0.367 · σ=0.289MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.626 (-0.90σ vs μ)0.7830.3910.000-0.391-0.783μ = -0.367-0.281-0.2810.0840.084-0.440-0.440-0.027-0.027-0.146-0.146-0.271-0.271-0.208-0.208-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.033-0.0330.0000.000-0.033-0.033-0.488-0.488-0.718-0.718-0.754-0.754-0.783-0.783-0.754-0.754-0.626-0.626v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.626 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
3.6543
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1609
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.8959
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1122
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.6811
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0048
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.8117
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4170
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6448
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0186
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.2782
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0227
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.307 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.57e-6 · top T=2.40h (27.2%) · top-3 cover 63.7%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)1.5e-51.1e-57.5e-63.7e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.19e-8 · 0.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.19e-8 · 0.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.57e-7 · 0.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.57e-7 · 0.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.67e-7 · 1.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.67e-7 · 1.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.54e-6 · 8.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.54e-6 · 8.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.49e-6 · 4.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.49e-6 · 4.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.93e-6 · 5.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.93e-6 · 5.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.83e-6 · 10.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.83e-6 · 10.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.67e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.67e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.29e-6 · 16.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.29e-6 · 16.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.49e-5 · 27.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.49e-5 · 27.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.07e-5 · 19.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.07e-5 · 19.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.01e-6 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.01e-6 · 5.5% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=2.18h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 27.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.487e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (439 bars · effective 1753103 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 35.3 d · σ/bar 0.008pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.23ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0398 · n = 439✓ n = 439
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.008pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.04pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move35d
0.23pp
σ × √846.9559797222221
Terminal variancebinary
0.0398
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
4.2¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.02pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 439
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.02pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
3.5pp
peak 4.3¢ → trough 4.2¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
4.2%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
24.096
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+2310
$100 wins $2310
FractionalUK
23.10 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$2309.64
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 4.2%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.249 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.249 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.59 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.06 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
57107911838948233648731073701000410965767736892827604593704522098534595475692
NO token ID
101544753995158478640301189972455098767884888100494356205821843696674490667050
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 17:02:38 UTC
Snapshot age
5ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 17:02:38 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
21d97b8b299219d4bacef81343d7af773d57ba994aed471b19ba34823f379dd8 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany93.3¢HL PREDSpain89.5¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?3¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,927HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,661.7HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.09

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.041500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
722.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.988
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.498
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-julian-alvarez-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.11150816869.52bp0.40000032FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.483448106493.56bp0.88000047FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.837902191904.02bp0.95000057FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0050498783.38bp0.00100017PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0050498783.38bp0.00100017PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0050498783.38bp0.00100017PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 439 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
247.86%
σ per bar = 0.001872
Mean return (annualised)
-14211.61%
μ per bar = -0.000081
Sharpe (rf=0)
-57.34
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.49%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.04 over 383 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-julian-alvarez-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/risk · same metrics, JSON