POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

YES · live
5.3¢
NO · live
94.7¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-kai-havertz-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
23.38%
max drawdown
5.61%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
2.78%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.07%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
5.61%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
579
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-kai-havertz-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
5.3¢
NO · live
94.7¢
YES price · live 24h
n=23 · μ=0.0411 · σ=0.0121 · range [0.0005, 0.0535] · R²=0.692▲ RISING +10400.00%σ EXTREME 29.33%LAST 0.05250.05350.04030.02700.01370.0005μ = 0.0411max 0.0535min 0.0005dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.69μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
23 ticks · last 5.25¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 5.3%NO 94.7%NO94.7%94.65¢ · odds 1/1.06
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.301 / 1.00 bits (30%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
5.3%5.3¢18.69×▬ +0.00pp
NO
94.7%94.7¢1.06×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=22 · Σ=820 · μ=37.3 · σ=56.2 · CV=1.51BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=3064127191255μ = 3725550%h1h4h7h10h13h16h19h22#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 820bp moved · peak 255bp · n=22 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5ms
▲YES mid
5.35¢ (5.35%)
▼NO mid
94.65¢ (94.65%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$65.7k
≋liquidity $
$55.8k
◳history points
23 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=23 · μ=0.0411 · σ=0.0121 · range [0.0005, 0.0535] · R²=0.692▲ RISING +10400.00%σ EXTREME 29.33%LAST 0.05250.05350.04030.02700.01370.0005μ = 0.0411max 0.0535min 0.0005dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.69μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
23 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 5.25¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=24 · μ=0.9584 · σ=0.0121 · range [0.9465, 0.9995] · R²=0.698▼ FALLING -5.25%σ NORMAL 1.26%LAST 0.94700.99950.98630.97300.95970.9465μ = 0.9584max 0.9995min 0.9465dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.70μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
24 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 94.70¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=22 · 10 bins · μ=0.0027 · σ=0.0058 · skew=2.30 (right-skewed) · kurt=5.84 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1085304-0.25ppbin -0.25pp · n=4 · 40.0% peakbin -0.25pp · n=4 · 40.0% peak100.04ppbin 0.04pp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin 0.04pp · n=10 · 100.0% peak30.34ppbin 0.34pp · n=3 · 30.0% peakbin 0.34pp · n=3 · 30.0% peak20.63ppbin 0.63pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin 0.63pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak20.93ppbin 0.93pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin 0.93pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak1.22pp1.52pp1.81pp2.11pp12.40ppbin 2.40pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 2.40pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=22
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=22 · skew=2.36 · kurt=6.14 · near 9 / mid 12 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.88 intercept=0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERTHIN LOWER TAIL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+1.73σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=23LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=2.97)
μ MEAN4.11¢95% CI: [3.62¢, 4.61¢]
σ STD DEV1.21ppσ² = 1.455 · CV = 29.33%
med MEDIAN4.20¢Q₁ 3.60¢ · Q₃ 5.08¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 5.30pp · IQR 1.48pp (1.349σ→1.63pp)
min 0.05¢Q₁ 3.60¢med 4.20¢Q₃ 5.08¢max 5.35¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.520left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.975leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.07
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.10
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.39
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=22
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.129within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.160lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.027strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+6.863significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.027
H = 1.027STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.129k=2+0.160k=3-0.140k=4-0.144k=5-0.0370+1−1+0.43−0.43+ momentum (ρ > +0.43)− reversal (ρ < −0.43)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.86)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=22from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.86)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2069681
SLUGwill-kai-havertz…fa-world-cup
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (95¢)
PRIMARY · YES5.35¢implied prob 5.35% · decimal odds 18.69×
COUNTER · NO94.65¢implied prob 94.65% · decimal odds 1.06×
5.35¢
94.65¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME65.70k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY55.85k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (95¢)|primary − counter| = 0.893 · entropy 0.301 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 5.3%NO 94.7%YES p̂5.3%H = 0.301 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES18.69×(5¢)NO1.06×(95¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.301 bits (30% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-07-20 00:00 UTC
35days
06hrs
59min
35.29 days·θ = 5.910 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 5.3%)
NO →$0.00(P = 94.7%)
current: $0.0535 · expected return per side: $0.95 on YES hit · $0.05 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+17.6dRESOLVESP projection · σ=1.21% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 5.910 pp/day
now35.29d left
5.910 pp/day×1.00
−25%26.47d left
6.824 pp/day×1.15
−50%17.65d left
8.358 pp/day×1.41
−75%8.82d left
11.820 pp/day×2.00
−90%3.53d left
18.689 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=22 bars · best 2.55% · worst -0.40% · typical |Δ| 0.37%MILD BULLISH +5.20%BEST+2.55%1hWORST-0.40%4hTYPICAL |Δ|0.37%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+5.20%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.51% · Σ +3.55%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.15% · Σ +1.20%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.06% · Σ +0.45%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +5.20%+5.30%0.00%2.55% · 1h2.55% · 1h2.55%1h★ BEST0.55% · 2h0.55% · 2h0.55%2h1.05% · 3h1.05% · 3h1.05%3h-0.40% · 4h-0.40% · 4h-0.40%4h▼ WORST-0.30% · 5h-0.30% · 5h-0.30%5h0.15% · 6h0.15% · 6h0.15%6h-0.05% · 7h-0.05% · 7h-0.05%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.15% · 11h0.15% · 11h0.15%11h0.60% · 12h0.60% · 12h0.60%12h0.85% · 13h0.85% · 13h0.85%13h-0.35% · 14h-0.35% · 14h-0.35%14h-0.05% · 15h-0.05% · 15h-0.05%15h0.30% · 16h0.30% · 16h0.30%16h-0.05% · 17h-0.05% · 17h-0.05%17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.30% · 19h0.30% · 19h0.30%19h-0.20% · 20h-0.20% · 20h-0.20%20h0.20% · 21h0.20% · 21h0.20%21h-0.10% · 22h-0.10% · 22h-0.10%22hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+3.55%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH45% up · 36% down · 18% flat
10 up bars · 8 down · best 2.55% · worst -0.40% · typical |Δ| 0.373%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=23 barsSTRONG PROFIT +5.29% · SHALLOW DDFINAL+5.29%MAX DD-0.70%RECOVERYONGOING · 8 barsMAX RUN-UP+5.39%UNDERWATER16/23 (70%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0529 · peak 1.0539 · range [1.0000, 1.0539]1.05391.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0539UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.70% · shallow0%-0.70%▼ TROUGH -0.70%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -0.70%bar 5-12 · 8 bars · recovered#2 -0.40%bar 15-19 · 5 bars · recovered#3 -0.20%bar 21-23 · 3 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.70%)RECOVERYongoing · 19 barsTIME UNDER WATER70% of session · 16/23 bars
final equity 1.0529 (5.29%) · max DD -0.70% · time-under-water 16/23 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 5 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=18 · +15 / −3 (83% positive) · μ=27.51 · σ=30.98PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 18.05 (-0.31σ vs μ)77.7938.890.00-38.89-77.79μ = 27.5153.7453.7432.5732.5714.5714.57-49.86-49.86-22.89-22.8924.6924.6924.6924.6954.0454.0477.7977.7948.9248.9246.2946.2952.3252.3228.5628.56-12.17-12.1750.9550.9529.4529.4523.4023.4018.0518.05v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 18.054 · range [-49.86, 77.79] · μ 27.505 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=18 · μ=33.8939 · σ=25.0160 · range [7.0972, 112.4795] · R²=0.205▼ FALLING -82.75%σ EXTREME 73.81%LAST 19.4082112.479586.133959.788333.44287.0972μ = 33.8939max 112.4795min 7.0972dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.20μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 19.41% · range [7.10%, 112.48%] · μ 33.89% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=18 · +6 / −12 (33% positive) · μ=-0.173 · σ=0.323MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.777 (-1.87σ vs μ)0.7770.3880.000-0.388-0.777μ = -0.1730.0650.0650.0790.079-0.233-0.2330.1430.143-0.468-0.468-0.300-0.300-0.017-0.0170.1670.1670.4340.434-0.175-0.175-0.002-0.0020.0220.022-0.375-0.375-0.035-0.035-0.481-0.481-0.492-0.492-0.672-0.672-0.777-0.777v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.777 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
84.2825
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.2896
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8096
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀***

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-5.1730
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.0395
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2986
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7694
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0084
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=2

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.7757
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4379
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.835 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=11 bins · noise floor μ=4.19e-5 · top T=11.00h (21.3%) · top-3 cover 55.6%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)9.8e-57.4e-54.9e-52.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 22.0 · power 2.45e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 22.0 · power 2.45e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 11.0 · power 9.84e-5 · 21.3% energyperiod 11.0 · power 9.84e-5 · 21.3% energyperiod 7.3 · power 2.47e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 7.3 · power 2.47e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 5.5 · power 8.14e-5 · 17.7% energyperiod 5.5 · power 8.14e-5 · 17.7% energyperiod 4.4 · power 5.81e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 4.4 · power 5.81e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 3.7 · power 2.73e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 3.7 · power 2.73e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 3.1 · power 1.70e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 3.1 · power 1.70e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.8 · power 7.33e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 2.8 · power 7.33e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.50e-5 · 11.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.50e-5 · 11.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.31e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.31e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.64e-5 · 16.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.64e-5 · 16.6% energy50% by T=4.4h#1 dominantT=11.00h#2T=5.50h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 11.00h (freq 0.091) · concentrates 21.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.610e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (579 bars · effective 1753103 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 35.3 d · σ/bar 0.018pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.51ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0506 · n = 579✓ n = 579
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.018pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.09pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move35d
0.51pp
σ × √846.9849069444444
Terminal variancebinary
0.0506
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
5.3¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.03pp · ES₉₅ 0.04pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 579
VaR 95%
0.03pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.04pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
5.6pp
peak 5.3¢ → trough 5.1¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
5.3%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
18.692
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+1769
$100 wins $1769
FractionalUK
17.69 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1769.16
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 5.3%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.301 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.301 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.22 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.08 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
75428844219419347840548824297431434618851036026433174170961305373847177882837
NO token ID
34356513490905650484651518458554831020829118830887195116735740705349341682706
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 17:00:54 UTC
Snapshot age
5ms
History points
23 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 17:00:54 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
ec03257db1e914f289080c3525d8d1a02f99f765883c54488b87fe7a7e38c9ae · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany93.7¢HL PREDSpain89.5¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?2¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,891.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,660.75HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$59.98

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.054000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
740.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.390
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.462
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-kai-havertz-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0998678493.82bp0.15700016FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.38823261894.82bp0.80000035FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.57876597178.62bp0.99900042PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0414632321.64bp0.0110008PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0414632321.64bp0.0110008PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0414632321.64bp0.0110008PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 579 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
448.71%
σ per bar = 0.003389
Mean return (annualised)
-0.00%
μ per bar = -0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
-0.00
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
5.61%
peak 0.05 → trough 0.05 over 333 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-kai-havertz-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/risk · same metrics, JSON