POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

YES · live
58.5¢
NO · live
41.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-kimi-antonelli-be-the-2026-f1-drivers-champion · fresh · feed 0s old
realized vol (ann.)
—
max drawdown
—
sharpe
—
ulcer index
—
RMS drawdown
pain index
—
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
—
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
—
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
—
implied (price-only)
bars used
0
insufficient
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
  • insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-kimi-antonelli-be-the-2026-f1-drivers-champion/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH35ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
58.5¢
NO · live
41.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.5986 · σ=0.0216 · range [0.5295, 0.6370] · R²=0.342▼ FALLING -6.02%σ NORMAL 3.61%LAST 0.58550.63700.61010.58330.55640.5295μ = 0.5986max 0.6370min 0.5295dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 58.55¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 58.5%NO 41.5%YES58.5%58.45¢ · odds 1/1.71
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.979 / 1.00 bits (98%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
YES
58.5%58.5¢1.71×▬ +0.00pp
NO
41.5%41.5¢2.41×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=3,475 · μ=144.8 · σ=275.6 · CV=1.90BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1902695388061,075μ = 1451,07550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 3475bp moved · peak 1075bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
35ms
▲YES mid
58.45¢ (58.45%)
▼NO mid
41.55¢ (41.55%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$31.5k
≋liquidity $
$81.7k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.5986 · σ=0.0216 · range [0.5295, 0.6370] · R²=0.342▼ FALLING -6.02%σ NORMAL 3.61%LAST 0.58550.63700.61010.58330.55640.5295μ = 0.5986max 0.6370min 0.5295dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 58.55¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.4014 · σ=0.0216 · range [0.3630, 0.4705] · R²=0.342▲ RISING +9.95%σ HIGH 5.39%LAST 0.41450.47050.44360.41670.38990.3630μ = 0.4014max 0.4705min 0.3630dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 41.45¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0037 · σ=0.0273 · skew=-0.62 (left-skewed) · kurt=5.73 (leptokurtic (fat tails))191410501-9.82ppbin -9.82pp · n=1 · 5.3% peakbin -9.82pp · n=1 · 5.3% peak-7.96pp-6.10pp-4.24pp1-2.38ppbin -2.38pp · n=1 · 5.3% peakbin -2.38pp · n=1 · 5.3% peak19-0.52ppbin -0.52pp · n=19 · 100.0% peakbin -0.52pp · n=19 · 100.0% peak11.34ppbin 1.34pp · n=1 · 5.3% peakbin 1.34pp · n=1 · 5.3% peak3.20pp15.06ppbin 5.06pp · n=1 · 5.3% peakbin 5.06pp · n=1 · 5.3% peak16.92ppbin 6.92pp · n=1 · 5.3% peakbin 6.92pp · n=1 · 5.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.78 · kurt=5.45 · near 7 / mid 16 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.84 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=2.24)
μ MEAN59.86¢95% CI: [59.01¢, 60.71¢]
σ STD DEV2.16ppσ² = 4.672 · CV = 3.61%
med MEDIAN60.60¢Q₁ 59.05¢ · Q₃ 60.90¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 10.75pp · IQR 1.85pp (1.349σ→2.92pp)
min 52.95¢Q₁ 59.05¢med 60.60¢Q₃ 60.90¢max 63.70¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.230left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.238leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.34
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.58
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.97
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.71 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.715negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.226lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.802strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.459significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.802
H = 0.802STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.715k=2+0.226k=3+0.040k=4-0.043k=5-0.0440+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.46)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.71 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.46)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID898412
SLUGwill-kimi-antonelli-be-the-2026-f1-drivers-champion
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (58¢)
PRIMARY · YES58.45¢implied prob 58.45% · decimal odds 1.71×
COUNTER · NO41.55¢implied prob 41.55% · decimal odds 2.41×
58.45¢
41.55¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME31.54k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY81.73k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (58¢)|primary − counter| = 0.169 · entropy 0.979 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 58.5%NO 41.5%YES p̂58.5%H = 0.979 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.71×(58¢)NO2.41×(42¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = -0.00%
K* full
-0.00%
½K half
-0.00%
¼K quarter
-0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.979 bits (98% of max) · maximum uncertainty (~50/50)
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-06 00:00 UTC
174days
04hrs
40min
174.19 days·θ = 10.589 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 58.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 41.5%)
current: $0.5845 · expected return per side: $0.42 on YES hit · $0.58 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+87.1dRESOLVESP projection · σ=2.16% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 10.589 pp/day
now174.19d left
10.589 pp/day×1.00
−25%130.65d left
12.227 pp/day×1.15
−50%87.10d left
14.975 pp/day×1.41
−75%43.55d left
21.178 pp/day×2.00
−90%17.42d left
33.485 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 7.85% · worst -10.75% · typical |Δ| 1.45%BEARISH SESSION -3.75%BEST+7.85%18hWORST-10.75%19hTYPICAL |Δ|1.45%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.75%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.18% · Σ -1.25%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.25% · Σ -2.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.08% · Σ -0.60%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.75%+1.40%-9.35%-0.05% · 1h-0.05% · 1h-0.05%1h-1.40% · 2h-1.40% · 2h-1.40%2h-0.10% · 3h-0.10% · 3h-0.10%3h0.10% · 4h0.10% · 4h0.10%4h0.30% · 5h0.30% · 5h0.30%5h0.15% · 6h0.15% · 6h0.15%6h-0.25% · 7h-0.25% · 7h-0.25%7h-0.15% · 8h-0.15% · 8h-0.15%8h-0.15% · 9h-0.15% · 9h-0.15%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h-0.15% · 11h-0.15% · 11h-0.15%11h-0.10% · 12h-0.10% · 12h-0.10%12h-1.45% · 13h-1.45% · 13h-1.45%13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h-3.20% · 17h-3.20% · 17h-3.20%17h7.85% · 18h7.85% · 18h7.85%18h★ BEST-10.75% · 19h-10.75% · 19h-10.75%19h▼ WORST5.35% · 20h5.35% · 20h5.35%20h1.65% · 21h1.65% · 21h1.65%21h-1.35% · 22h-1.35% · 22h-1.35%22h-0.15% · 23h-0.15% · 23h-0.15%23h0.10% · 24h0.10% · 24h0.10%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+-0.60%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH29% up · 54% down · 17% flat
7 up bars · 13 down · best 7.85% · worst -10.75% · typical |Δ| 1.448%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -4.78%FINAL-4.78%MAX DD-10.75%RECOVERYONGOING · 6 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.04%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9522 · peak 1.0104 · range [0.9018, 1.0104]1.01040.9018break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0104UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -10.75% · significant0%-10.75%▼ TROUGH -10.75%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -10.75%bar 20-25 · 6 bars · ONGOING#2 -6.32%bar 2-18 · 17 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -10.75%)RECOVERYongoing · 6 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9522 (-4.78%) · max DD -10.75% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −14 (21% positive) · μ=-28.46 · σ=38.85UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -14.95 (+0.35σ vs μ)152.8476.420.00-76.42-152.84μ = -28.46-25.12-25.12-30.25-30.253.743.740.000.00-7.46-7.46-60.04-60.04-152.84-152.84-56.71-56.71-51.22-51.22-46.12-46.12-46.12-46.12-56.52-56.5213.1313.13-15.81-15.81-1.78-1.782.122.12-1.06-1.066.276.27-14.95-14.95v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -14.952 · range [-152.84, 13.13] · μ -28.459 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=232.3171 · σ=260.3812 · range [7.6420, 621.6260] · R²=0.731▲ RISING +765.18%σ EXTREME 112.08%LAST 502.8790621.6260468.1300314.6340161.13807.6420μ = 232.3171max 621.6260min 7.6420dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.73μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 502.88% · range [7.64%, 621.63%] · μ 232.32% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.231 · σ=0.359MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.324 (-0.26σ vs μ)0.7770.3890.000-0.389-0.777μ = -0.2310.0330.0330.1140.1140.2880.2880.4240.4240.2770.277-0.356-0.356-0.083-0.083-0.041-0.041-0.289-0.289-0.243-0.243-0.217-0.217-0.190-0.190-0.328-0.328-0.584-0.584-0.777-0.777-0.723-0.723-0.726-0.726-0.636-0.636-0.324-0.324v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.324 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
5 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence5 reject·1 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
52.9529
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
15.4787
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0086
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀***

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-4.9662
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.0662
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2863
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (8 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7769
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0081
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.5833
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0098
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.214 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.04e-3 · top T=2.18h (20.7%) · top-3 cover 59.5%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)2.6e-31.9e-31.3e-36.5e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 7.80e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 7.80e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.83e-5 · 0.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.83e-5 · 0.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.01e-5 · 0.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.01e-5 · 0.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.30e-5 · 0.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.30e-5 · 0.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.51e-5 · 0.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.51e-5 · 0.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.01e-4 · 2.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.01e-4 · 2.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.07e-3 · 8.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.07e-3 · 8.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.71e-3 · 13.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.71e-3 · 13.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.76e-3 · 14.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.76e-3 · 14.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.28e-3 · 18.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.28e-3 · 18.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.59e-3 · 20.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.59e-3 · 20.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.57e-3 · 20.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.57e-3 · 20.6% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.18h#2T=2.00h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 20.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.251e-2

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 174.2 d · σ/bar 3.123pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 201.95ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2427 · n = 25⚠ low confidence · n < 100
μ per bar
-0.156pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
3.123pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
15.30pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move174d
201.95pp
σ × √4180.666686666667
Terminal variancebinary
0.2427
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
58.6¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 2.78pp · ES₉₅ 6.82pp · method empirical · drift-correcteddrift -0.156pp/bar · quantised: no · median step 0.15pp · unique ratio 0.76⊘ disabled · n < 30
VaR 95%
2.78pp
5th percentile of Δp
ES 95%
6.82pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
16.9pp
peak 63.7¢ → trough 52.9¢
Median step
0.15pp
price bucket granularity
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
58.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.711
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-141
risk $141 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.71 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$71.09
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 58.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.979 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.979 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.77 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
1.27 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
32950178421556833525068948927823594772134813180063196823389171317494746105102
NO token ID
113530594522634794165460425612745976368792987948987062860518413913599754643814
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 19:19:59 UTC
Snapshot age
35ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 19:19:59 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
e3036682fcb92f843e9c3696334b9ad3c1a18b3faa6a55f9ceb8a9cb05c22bfb · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.585000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
239.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.568
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.576
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-kimi-antonelli-be-the-2026-f1-drivers-champion/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.597041205.83bp0.6050009FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.6539971179.43bp0.70700040FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.7814133357.48bp0.85800079FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.562842378.77bp0.5590009FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.2587655576.67bp0.125000155FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0035709938.98bp0.001000167PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 25 bars
Realized vol (annualised)
—
σ per bar = 0.053632
Mean return (annualised)
—
μ per bar = -0.002587
Sharpe (rf=0)
—
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
16.88%
peak 0.64 → trough 0.53 over 1 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-kimi-antonelli-be-the-2026-f1-drivers-champion/risk · same metrics, JSON