POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · WHO WILL SIGN U.S. X IRAN DEAL?

Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

YES · live
5.8¢
NO · live
94.3¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-pete-hegseth-sign-a-uptspt-x-iran-deal-by-july-31-20260611235950070 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
169.52%
max drawdown
33.91%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
26.96%
RMS drawdown
pain index
26.02%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.12%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
33.91%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.00
upside/downside
roll spread
50.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
183
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-pete-hegseth-sign-a-uptspt-x-iran-deal-by-july-31-20260611235950070/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH300ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
5.8¢
NO · live
94.3¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0524 · σ=0.0097 · range [0.0445, 0.0845] · R²=0.193▲ RISING +21.05%σ EXTREME 18.50%LAST 0.05750.08450.07450.06450.05450.0445μ = 0.0524max 0.0845min 0.0445dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.19μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 5.75¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 5.8%NO 94.3%NO94.3%94.25¢ · odds 1/1.06
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.317 / 1.00 bits (32%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
5.8%5.8¢17.39×▬ +0.00pp
NO
94.3%94.3¢1.06×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,180 · μ=49.2 · σ=99.3 · CV=2.02BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=21098195293390μ = 4939050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1180bp moved · peak 390bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
300ms
▲YES mid
5.75¢ (5.75%)
▼NO mid
94.25¢ (94.25%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$26.6k
≋liquidity $
$29.4k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0524 · σ=0.0097 · range [0.0445, 0.0845] · R²=0.193▲ RISING +21.05%σ EXTREME 18.50%LAST 0.05750.08450.07450.06450.05450.0445μ = 0.0524max 0.0845min 0.0445dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.19μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 5.75¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9476 · σ=0.0097 · range [0.9155, 0.9555] · R²=0.193▼ FALLING -1.05%σ NORMAL 1.02%LAST 0.94250.95550.94550.93550.92550.9155μ = 0.9476max 0.9555min 0.9155dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.19μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 94.25¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0007 · σ=0.0100 · skew=1.96 (right-skewed) · kurt=5.30 (leptokurtic (fat tails))18149501-1.80ppbin -1.80pp · n=1 · 5.6% peakbin -1.80pp · n=1 · 5.6% peak1-1.20ppbin -1.20pp · n=1 · 5.6% peakbin -1.20pp · n=1 · 5.6% peak2-0.60ppbin -0.60pp · n=2 · 11.1% peakbin -0.60pp · n=2 · 11.1% peak180.00ppbin 0.00pp · n=18 · 100.0% peakbin 0.00pp · n=18 · 100.0% peak0.60pp1.20pp1.80pp12.40ppbin 2.40pp · n=1 · 5.6% peakbin 2.40pp · n=1 · 5.6% peak3.00pp13.60ppbin 3.60pp · n=1 · 5.6% peakbin 3.60pp · n=1 · 5.6% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.88 · kurt=5.33 · near 7 / mid 14 / far 3 · OLS slope=0.81 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+1.51σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=2.42)
μ MEAN5.24¢95% CI: [4.86¢, 5.62¢]
σ STD DEV0.97ppσ² = 0.939 · CV = 18.50%
med MEDIAN4.75¢Q₁ 4.75¢ · Q₃ 5.80¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 4.00pp · IQR 1.05pp (1.349σ→1.31pp)
min 4.45¢Q₁ 4.75¢med 4.75¢Q₃ 5.80¢max 8.45¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.666right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.417leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.50
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.24
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.13
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.33 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.327within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.069lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.465strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.342significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.465
H = 1.465STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.327k=2-0.069k=3+0.014k=4-0.116k=5-0.1730+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.34)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.33 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.34)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2512438
SLUGwill-pete-hegset…611235950070
CATEGORYWho will sign U.S. x Iran deal?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (94¢)
PRIMARY · YES5.75¢implied prob 5.75% · decimal odds 17.39×
COUNTER · NO94.25¢implied prob 94.25% · decimal odds 1.06×
5.75¢
94.25¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME26.61k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY29.41k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (94¢)|primary − counter| = 0.885 · entropy 0.317 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 5.8%NO 94.3%YES p̂5.8%H = 0.317 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES17.39×(6¢)NO1.06×(94¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.317 bits (32% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-08-01 03:59 UTC
47days
10hrs
54min
47.45 days·θ = 4.747 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 5.8%)
NO →$0.00(P = 94.3%)
current: $0.0575 · expected return per side: $0.94 on YES hit · $0.06 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+23.7dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.97% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 4.747 pp/day
now47.45d left
4.747 pp/day×1.00
−25%35.59d left
5.482 pp/day×1.15
−50%23.73d left
6.714 pp/day×1.41
−75%11.86d left
9.495 pp/day×2.00
−90%4.75d left
15.012 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.90% · worst -2.10% · typical |Δ| 0.49%MILD BULLISH +1.00%BEST+3.90%21hWORST-2.10%22hTYPICAL |Δ|0.49%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.14% · Σ +1.15%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.10%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.00%+3.70%-0.30%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h-0.30% · 11h-0.30% · 11h-0.30%11h2.45% · 12h2.45% · 12h2.45%12h-0.75% · 13h-0.75% · 13h-0.75%13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h-0.25% · 15h-0.25% · 15h-0.25%15h-1.35% · 16h-1.35% · 16h-1.35%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.05% · 18h0.05% · 18h0.05%18h-0.05% · 19h-0.05% · 19h-0.05%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h3.90% · 21h3.90% · 21h3.90%21h★ BEST-2.10% · 22h-2.10% · 22h-2.10%22h▼ WORST-0.55% · 23h-0.55% · 23h-0.55%23h-0.05% · 24h-0.05% · 24h-0.05%24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.15%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 3BREADTH13% up · 33% down · 54% flat
3 up bars · 8 down · best 3.90% · worst -2.10% · typical |Δ| 0.492%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.86%FINAL+0.86%MAX DD-2.69%RECOVERYONGOING · 3 barsMAX RUN-UP+3.65%UNDERWATER12/25 (48%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0086 · peak 1.0365 · range [0.9970, 1.0365]1.03650.9970break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0365UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.69% · moderate0%-2.69%▼ TROUGH -2.69%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.69%bar 23-25 · 3 bars · ONGOING#2 -2.33%bar 14-21 · 8 bars · recovered#3 -0.30%bar 12-12 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.69%)RECOVERYongoing · 3 barsTIME UNDER WATER48% of session · 12/25 bars
final equity 1.0086 (0.86%) · max DD -2.69% · time-under-water 12/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −5 (47% positive) · μ=-2.80 · σ=26.48MIXED EDGELAST 9.04 (+0.45σ vs μ)64.0632.030.00-32.03-64.06μ = -2.800.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-38.21-38.2132.5132.5119.4119.4119.4119.4115.7415.74-2.39-2.391.201.20-64.06-64.06-46.14-46.14-46.14-46.1422.2722.2714.3714.379.839.839.049.04v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 9.036 · range [-64.06, 32.51] · μ -2.798 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=81.2847 · σ=68.9101 · range [0.0000, 185.8139] · R²=0.683▬ FLATσ EXTREME 84.78%LAST 185.8139185.8139139.360492.907046.45350.0000μ = 81.2847max 185.8139min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.68μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 185.81% · range [0.00%, 185.81%] · μ 81.28% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −14 (0% positive) · μ=-0.195 · σ=0.193MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.370 (-0.91σ vs μ)0.4950.2480.000-0.248-0.495μ = -0.1950.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000-0.033-0.033-0.142-0.142-0.494-0.494-0.467-0.467-0.443-0.443-0.256-0.256-0.173-0.173-0.270-0.270-0.102-0.102-0.066-0.066-0.011-0.011-0.495-0.495-0.379-0.379-0.370-0.370v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.370 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
64.1942
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.4426
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4890
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.2077
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0208
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.3507
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1768
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (7 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3359
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1194
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.4428
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1491
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.561 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.20e-4 · top T=3.00h (24.2%) · top-3 cover 56.1%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)3.5e-42.6e-41.7e-48.7e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.84e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.84e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.06e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.06e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.71e-4 · 11.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.71e-4 · 11.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.87e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.87e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.20e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.20e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.17e-4 · 8.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.17e-4 · 8.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.17e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.17e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.48e-4 · 24.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.48e-4 · 24.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.57e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.57e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.39e-4 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.39e-4 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.89e-4 · 20.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.89e-4 · 20.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.75e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.75e-5 · 2.6% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=2.18h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 24.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.440e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (183 bars · effective 1752713 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 47.5 d · σ/bar 0.128pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 4.32ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0542 · n = 183✓ n = 183
μ per bar
-0.016pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.128pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.63pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move47d
4.32pp
σ × √1138.9135161111112
Terminal variancebinary
0.0542
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
5.8¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.23pp · ES₉₅ 0.28pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.016pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.35pp · unique ratio 0.03⚠ low confidence · n < 200
VaR 95%
0.23pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.28pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
33.9pp
peak 8.7¢ → trough 5.8¢
Median step
0.35pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
5.8%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
17.391
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+1639
$100 wins $1639
FractionalUK
16.39 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1639.13
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 5.8%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.317 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.317 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.12 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.09 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
55518787672652233358803261094912065708506967082053098773496445029299839472142
NO token ID
70000702743463065979372027558650220853734435256265946721848640447130460513255
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 17:04:11 UTC
Snapshot age
300ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 17:04:11 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
a5e957b87cafb3220418d5d29274fe8b4645ee444d3a424c885837b399c18c9a · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.0¢HL PREDSpain89.5¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?2¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,970HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,663.5HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.18

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.057500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
869.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.793
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.768
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-pete-hegseth-sign-a-uptspt-x-iran-deal-by-july-31-20260611235950070/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.16635118930.64bp0.48000023FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.45290168765.42bp0.64000036FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.785412126593.36bp0.99000068FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0214026277.86bp0.00100026PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0214026277.86bp0.00100026PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0214026277.86bp0.00100026PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 183 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
2338.17%
σ per bar = 0.017661
Mean return (annualised)
-398812.70%
μ per bar = -0.002275
Sharpe (rf=0)
-170.57
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
33.91%
peak 0.09 → trough 0.06 over 156 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-pete-hegseth-sign-a-uptspt-x-iran-deal-by-july-31-20260611235950070/risk · same metrics, JSON