POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

YES · live
24.5¢
NO · live
75.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-qatar-advance-to-the-knockout-stages-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup · fresh · feed 0s old
realized vol (ann.)
—
max drawdown
—
sharpe
—
ulcer index
—
RMS drawdown
pain index
—
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
—
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
—
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
—
implied (price-only)
bars used
0
insufficient
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
  • insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-qatar-advance-to-the-knockout-stages-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH7ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
24.5¢
NO · live
75.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.2330 · σ=0.0369 · range [0.1100, 0.2750] · R²=0.165▲ RISING +122.73%σ EXTREME 15.83%LAST 0.24500.27500.23380.19250.15120.1100μ = 0.2330max 0.2750min 0.1100dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.16μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 24.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 24.5%NO 75.5%NO75.5%75.50¢ · odds 1/1.32
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.803 / 1.00 bits (80%) · high uncertainty
YES
24.5%24.5¢4.08×▬ +0.00pp
NO
75.5%75.5¢1.32×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=2,650 · μ=110.4 · σ=190.5 · CV=1.73BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=30175350525700μ = 11070050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 2650bp moved · peak 700bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
7ms
▲YES mid
24.50¢ (24.50%)
▼NO mid
75.50¢ (75.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$35.3k
≋liquidity $
$42.3k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.2330 · σ=0.0369 · range [0.1100, 0.2750] · R²=0.165▲ RISING +122.73%σ EXTREME 15.83%LAST 0.24500.27500.23380.19250.15120.1100μ = 0.2330max 0.2750min 0.1100dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.16μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 24.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.7670 · σ=0.0369 · range [0.7250, 0.8900] · R²=0.165▼ FALLING -15.17%σ NORMAL 4.81%LAST 0.75500.89000.84880.80750.76620.7250μ = 0.7670max 0.8900min 0.7250dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.16μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 75.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0087 · σ=0.0195 · skew=1.68 (right-skewed) · kurt=3.24 (leptokurtic (fat tails))13107301-2.50ppbin -2.50pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -2.50pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak1-1.50ppbin -1.50pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -1.50pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak3-0.50ppbin -0.50pp · n=3 · 23.1% peakbin -0.50pp · n=3 · 23.1% peak130.50ppbin 0.50pp · n=13 · 100.0% peakbin 0.50pp · n=13 · 100.0% peak31.50ppbin 1.50pp · n=3 · 23.1% peakbin 1.50pp · n=3 · 23.1% peak12.50ppbin 2.50pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin 2.50pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak3.50pp4.50pp5.50pp26.50ppbin 6.50pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakbin 6.50pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.87 · kurt=3.89 · near 5 / mid 17 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.86 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=4.53)
μ MEAN23.30¢95% CI: [21.85¢, 24.75¢]
σ STD DEV3.69ppσ² = 13.604 · CV = 15.83%
med MEDIAN24.00¢Q₁ 23.50¢ · Q₃ 24.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 16.50pp · IQR 1.00pp (1.349σ→4.98pp)
min 11.00¢Q₁ 23.50¢med 24.00¢Q₃ 24.50¢max 27.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-2.276left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂4.535leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.19
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 4.98
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.47
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.487positive · momentum
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.052lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.817strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.131significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.817
H = 0.817STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★+0.487k=2-0.052k=3-0.036k=4-0.001k=5-0.0770+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.13)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.13)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2070737
SLUGwill-qatar-advan…fa-world-cup
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (76¢)
PRIMARY · YES24.50¢implied prob 24.50% · decimal odds 4.08×
COUNTER · NO75.50¢implied prob 75.50% · decimal odds 1.32×
24.50¢
75.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME35.32k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY42.28k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (76¢)|primary − counter| = 0.510 · entropy 0.803 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 24.5%NO 75.5%YES p̂24.5%H = 0.803 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES4.08×(25¢)NO1.32×(76¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.803 bits (80% of max) · high uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-28 00:00 UTC
13days
04hrs
47min
13.20 days·θ = 18.069 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 24.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 75.5%)
current: $0.2450 · expected return per side: $0.76 on YES hit · $0.24 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+6.6dRESOLVESP projection · σ=3.69% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 18.069 pp/day
now13.20d left
18.069 pp/day×1.00
−25%9.90d left
20.865 pp/day×1.15
−50%6.60d left
25.554 pp/day×1.41
−75%3.30d left
36.139 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.32d left
57.140 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 7.00% · worst -3.00% · typical |Δ| 1.10%MILD BULLISH +13.50%BEST+7.00%3hWORST-3.00%5hTYPICAL |Δ|1.10%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+13.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +2.14% · Σ +15.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.31% · Σ -2.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.13% · Σ +1.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +13.50%+16.50%0.00%2.00% · 1h2.00% · 1h2.00%1h6.50% · 2h6.50% · 2h6.50%2h7.00% · 3h7.00% · 3h7.00%3h★ BEST1.00% · 4h1.00% · 4h1.00%4h-3.00% · 5h-3.00% · 5h-3.00%5h▼ WORST1.00% · 6h1.00% · 6h1.00%6h0.50% · 7h0.50% · 7h0.50%7h-2.00% · 8h-2.00% · 8h-2.00%8h0.50% · 9h0.50% · 9h0.50%9h-0.50% · 10h-0.50% · 10h-0.50%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h-0.50% · 15h-0.50% · 15h-0.50%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h-0.50% · 17h-0.50% · 17h-0.50%17h0.50% · 18h0.50% · 18h0.50%18h1.00% · 19h1.00% · 19h1.00%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+15.00%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 1BREADTH38% up · 21% down · 42% flat
9 up bars · 5 down · best 7.00% · worst -3.00% · typical |Δ| 1.104%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +13.83%FINAL+13.83%MAX DD-4.47%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+17.40%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.1383 · peak 1.1740 · range [1.0000, 1.1740]1.17401.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1740UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.47% · moderate0%-4.47%▼ TROUGH -4.47%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -4.47%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.47%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 1.1383 (13.83%) · max DD -4.47% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −9 (47% positive) · μ=0.73 · σ=38.12MIXED EDGELAST 38.21 (+0.98σ vs μ)60.4230.210.00-30.21-60.42μ = 0.7359.9459.9452.5952.5920.1220.12-18.11-18.11-34.25-34.25-7.30-7.30-25.01-25.01-35.63-35.630.000.00-60.42-60.42-38.21-38.21-60.42-60.42-20.72-20.7213.3413.3413.3413.3430.2130.2130.2130.2155.9355.9338.2138.21v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 38.210 · range [-60.42, 59.94] · μ 0.728 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=107.1737 · σ=113.8567 · range [19.1050, 360.8767] · R²=0.605▼ FALLING -89.18%σ EXTREME 106.24%LAST 38.2099360.8767275.4338189.9908104.547919.1050μ = 107.1737max 360.8767min 19.1050dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.61μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 38.21% · range [19.10%, 360.88%] · μ 107.17% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.143 · σ=0.316CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.033 (+0.35σ vs μ)0.6430.3210.000-0.321-0.643μ = -0.1430.3630.3630.3940.3940.0050.005-0.592-0.592-0.401-0.401-0.330-0.330-0.643-0.643-0.355-0.355-0.500-0.500-0.083-0.083-0.233-0.233-0.333-0.333-0.480-0.4800.1670.1670.0930.0930.0420.042-0.021-0.0210.2140.214-0.033-0.033v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.033 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
42.3715
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.7448
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2393
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀***

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-4.6836
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0002
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2616
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7936
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (7 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2616
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2492
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
1.8375
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0661
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.559 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.38e-4 · top T=8.00h (19.2%) · top-3 cover 53.4%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.0e-37.6e-45.0e-42.5e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 9.54e-4 · 18.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 9.54e-4 · 18.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.46e-4 · 16.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.46e-4 · 16.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.01e-3 · 19.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.01e-3 · 19.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.45e-4 · 12.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.45e-4 · 12.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.97e-4 · 9.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.97e-4 · 9.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.39e-4 · 12.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.39e-4 · 12.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.41e-4 · 6.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.41e-4 · 6.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.78e-4 · 3.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.78e-4 · 3.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.00e-5 · 1.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.00e-5 · 1.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.10e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.10e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.70e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.70e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-6 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-6 · 0.0% energy50% by T=8.0h#1 dominantT=8.00h#2T=24.00h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 19.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.258e-3

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 13.2 d · σ/bar 2.138pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 38.06ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1850 · n = 25⚠ low confidence · n < 100
μ per bar
+0.563pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
2.138pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
10.48pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move13d
38.06pp
σ × √316.7899977777778
Terminal variancebinary
0.1850
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
24.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 2.95pp · ES₉₅ 3.85pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.563pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.44⊘ disabled · n < 30
VaR 95%
2.95pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
3.85pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
16.4pp
peak 27.5¢ → trough 23.0¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
24.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
4.082
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+308
$100 wins $308
FractionalUK
3.08 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$308.16
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 24.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.803 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.803 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.03 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.41 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
70660694677252789315202379140797409892216325243485105236716911430747759606745
NO token ID
105627726997418815036154112279916565747756609353824311653668040345600739869911
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 19:12:36 UTC
Snapshot age
7ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 19:12:36 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
d196d43a0f3a5fe3bf93a4dbd77c4ec6673c9c5e1b3f9e4c5c04ea3298c9c5ca · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDSpain89.5¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?0¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,804.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,664.75HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.59

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.245000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
408.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.957
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.570
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-qatar-advance-to-the-knockout-stages-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.2698281013.41bp0.2700002FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.2817401499.61bp0.79000016FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.77644121691.48bp0.99000021FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.224524835.74bp0.2100004FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1428284170.29bp0.01000022PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.1428284170.29bp0.01000022PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 25 bars
Realized vol (annualised)
—
σ per bar = 0.111653
Mean return (annualised)
—
μ per bar = 0.033366
Sharpe (rf=0)
—
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
16.36%
peak 0.28 → trough 0.23 over 13 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-qatar-advance-to-the-knockout-stages-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/risk · same metrics, JSON