POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · POLITICS

Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

YES · live
4.7¢
NO · live
95.3¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-rebecca-shepherd-finish-second-in-the-2026-makerfield-by-election · fresh · feed 0s old
realized vol (ann.)
—
max drawdown
—
sharpe
—
ulcer index
—
RMS drawdown
pain index
—
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
—
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
—
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
—
implied (price-only)
bars used
0
insufficient
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
  • insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-rebecca-shepherd-finish-second-in-the-2026-makerfield-by-election/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH149ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
4.7¢
NO · live
95.3¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0428 · σ=0.0038 · range [0.0375, 0.0485] · R²=0.513▲ RISING +10.59%σ HIGH 8.82%LAST 0.04700.04850.04570.04300.04030.0375μ = 0.0428max 0.0485min 0.0375dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.51μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 4.70¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 4.7%NO 95.3%NO95.3%95.30¢ · odds 1/1.05
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.274 / 1.00 bits (27%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
4.7%4.7¢21.28×▬ +0.00pp
NO
95.3%95.3¢1.05×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=375 · μ=15.6 · σ=21.2 · CV=1.36BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=15019385675μ = 167550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 375bp moved · peak 75bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
149ms
▲YES mid
4.70¢ (4.70%)
▼NO mid
95.30¢ (95.30%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$32.5k
≋liquidity $
$165.5k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0428 · σ=0.0038 · range [0.0375, 0.0485] · R²=0.513▲ RISING +10.59%σ HIGH 8.82%LAST 0.04700.04850.04570.04300.04030.0375μ = 0.0428max 0.0485min 0.0375dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.51μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 4.70¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9572 · σ=0.0038 · range [0.9515, 0.9625] · R²=0.513▼ FALLING -0.47%σ LOW 0.39%LAST 0.95300.96250.95970.95700.95430.9515μ = 0.9572max 0.9625min 0.9515dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.51μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 95.30¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0001 · σ=0.0024 · skew=-0.25 (symmetric) · kurt=2.13 (leptokurtic (fat tails))14117401-0.68ppbin -0.68pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin -0.68pp · n=1 · 7.1% peak-0.55pp-0.41pp2-0.28ppbin -0.28pp · n=2 · 14.3% peakbin -0.28pp · n=2 · 14.3% peak1-0.14ppbin -0.14pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin -0.14pp · n=1 · 7.1% peak14-0.01ppbin -0.01pp · n=14 · 100.0% peakbin -0.01pp · n=14 · 100.0% peak20.13ppbin 0.13pp · n=2 · 14.3% peakbin 0.13pp · n=2 · 14.3% peak20.26ppbin 0.26pp · n=2 · 14.3% peakbin 0.26pp · n=2 · 14.3% peak0.40pp20.53ppbin 0.53pp · n=2 · 14.3% peakbin 0.53pp · n=2 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.32 · kurt=2.29 · near 11 / mid 13 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.95 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.56)
μ MEAN4.28¢95% CI: [4.13¢, 4.42¢]
σ STD DEV0.38ppσ² = 0.142 · CV = 8.82%
med MEDIAN4.10¢Q₁ 4.00¢ · Q₃ 4.70¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.10pp · IQR 0.70pp (1.349σ→0.51pp)
min 3.75¢Q₁ 4.00¢med 4.10¢Q₃ 4.70¢max 4.85¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.300approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.556platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.47
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.73
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.92
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.20 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.201within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.185lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.595persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+4.927significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.595
H = 0.595PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.201k=2-0.185k=3-0.205k=4+0.301k=5-0.0050+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.93)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.20 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.39high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.93)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2317683
SLUGwill-rebecca-she…-by-election
CATEGORYPolitics
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (95¢)
PRIMARY · YES4.70¢implied prob 4.70% · decimal odds 21.28×
COUNTER · NO95.30¢implied prob 95.30% · decimal odds 1.05×
4.70¢
95.30¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME32.45k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY165.49k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (95¢)|primary − counter| = 0.906 · entropy 0.274 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 4.7%NO 95.3%YES p̂4.7%H = 0.274 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES21.28×(5¢)NO1.05×(95¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.274 bits (27% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-18 00:00 UTC
3days
04hrs
40min
3.19 days·θ = 1.848 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 4.7%)
NO →$0.00(P = 95.3%)
current: $0.0470 · expected return per side: $0.95 on YES hit · $0.05 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+1.6dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.38% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 1.848 pp/day
now3.19d left
1.848 pp/day×1.00
−25%2.40d left
2.134 pp/day×1.15
−50%1.60d left
2.614 pp/day×1.41
−75%19.17h left
3.696 pp/day×2.00
−90%7.67h left
5.844 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.60% · worst -0.75% · typical |Δ| 0.16%MILD BULLISH +0.45%BEST+0.60%19hWORST-0.75%18hTYPICAL |Δ|0.16%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.45%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.25%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.60%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.10%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.45%+0.60%-0.50%0.05% · 1h0.05% · 1h0.05%1h-0.20% · 2h-0.20% · 2h-0.20%2h-0.05% · 3h-0.05% · 3h-0.05%3h-0.30% · 4h-0.30% · 4h-0.30%4h0.05% · 5h0.05% · 5h0.05%5h0.15% · 6h0.15% · 6h0.15%6h0.05% · 7h0.05% · 7h0.05%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h-0.25% · 10h-0.25% · 10h-0.25%10h0.30% · 11h0.30% · 11h0.30%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.55% · 15h0.55% · 15h0.55%15h0.25% · 16h0.25% · 16h0.25%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h-0.75% · 18h-0.75% · 18h-0.75%18h▼ WORST0.60% · 19h0.60% · 19h0.60%19h★ BEST0.10% · 20h0.10% · 20h0.10%20h-0.05% · 21h-0.05% · 21h-0.05%21h-0.05% · 22h-0.05% · 22h-0.05%22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.60%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH38% up · 29% down · 33% flat
9 up bars · 7 down · best 0.60% · worst -0.75% · typical |Δ| 0.156%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.44%FINAL+0.44%MAX DD-0.75%RECOVERYONGOING · 7 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.60%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0044 · peak 1.0060 · range [0.9950, 1.0060]1.00600.9950break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0060UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.75% · shallow0%-0.75%▼ TROUGH -0.75%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -0.75%bar 19-25 · 7 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.55%bar 3-15 · 13 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.75%)RECOVERYongoing · 7 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 1.0044 (0.44%) · max DD -0.75% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +12 / −6 (63% positive) · μ=11.12 · σ=26.11MIXED EDGELAST 37.29 (+1.00σ vs μ)76.2338.120.00-38.12-76.23μ = 11.12-27.48-27.48-27.48-27.48-10.14-10.14-5.10-5.100.000.0021.3321.338.918.914.474.474.474.4733.3033.3076.2376.2354.9054.901.811.8120.5520.5523.8423.845.255.25-5.41-5.41-5.41-5.4137.2937.29v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 37.289 · range [-27.48, 76.23] · μ 11.123 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=25.6034 · σ=12.3292 · range [12.5571, 46.1772] · R²=0.616▲ RISING +47.39%σ EXTREME 48.15%LAST 23.492146.177237.772129.367120.962112.5571μ = 25.6034max 46.1772min 12.5571dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.62μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 23.49% · range [12.56%, 46.18%] · μ 25.60% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-0.171 · σ=0.252CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.151 (+1.28σ vs μ)0.4960.2480.000-0.248-0.496μ = -0.171-0.138-0.1380.1030.1030.1170.1170.0170.0170.1670.167-0.365-0.365-0.496-0.496-0.496-0.496-0.496-0.496-0.291-0.2910.0120.0120.0510.0510.1410.141-0.271-0.271-0.233-0.233-0.397-0.397-0.424-0.424-0.405-0.4050.1510.151v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.151 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
10.3658
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0056
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.1247
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2937
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.5407
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5140
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.4606
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6451
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (8 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6563
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0175
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.1226
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2616
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.658 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=7.83e-6 · top T=2.00h (28.8%) · top-3 cover 61.2%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.7e-52.0e-51.4e-56.8e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.20e-6 · 4.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.20e-6 · 4.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.98e-8 · 0.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.98e-8 · 0.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.33e-6 · 5.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.33e-6 · 5.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.50e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.50e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.68e-5 · 17.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.68e-5 · 17.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.37e-5 · 14.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.37e-5 · 14.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.84e-6 · 8.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.84e-6 · 8.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.75e-7 · 0.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.75e-7 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.10e-5 · 11.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.10e-5 · 11.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.76e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.76e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.94e-6 · 4.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.94e-6 · 4.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.71e-5 · 28.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.71e-5 · 28.8% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=4.80h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 28.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 9.400e-5

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 3.2 d · σ/bar 0.264pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 2.32ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0448 · n = 25⚠ low confidence · n < 100
μ per bar
+0.019pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.264pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
1.30pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move3d
2.32pp
σ × √76.66675722222223
Terminal variancebinary
0.0448
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
4.7¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.31pp · ES₉₅ 0.54pp · method empirical · drift-correcteddrift +0.019pp/bar · quantised: no · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.52⊘ disabled · n < 30
VaR 95%
0.31pp
5th percentile of Δp
ES 95%
0.54pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
15.5pp
peak 4.9¢ → trough 4.1¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
4.7%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
21.277
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+2028
$100 wins $2028
FractionalUK
20.28 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$2027.66
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 4.7%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.274 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.274 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.41 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.07 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
92309621320811280338663720696565605087435313015901903774261932390245161024423
NO token ID
60931255189351367961465418063471393109948619695171458258014536314218582322826
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 19:19:59 UTC
Snapshot age
149ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 19:19:59 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
ac6181fff369a109f6e591179e0c0741e350a229320afca158f028845c6e5c69 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDSpain89.6¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?0¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,831.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,666.85HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.55

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Politics

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.047000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
851.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.935
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.996
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-rebecca-shepherd-finish-second-in-the-2026-makerfield-by-election/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.049000425.53bp0.0490001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0679354454.25bp0.29200032FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.38382071663.82bp0.94000067FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0111297632.06bp0.00100020PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0111297632.06bp0.00100020PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0111297632.06bp0.00100020PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 25 bars
Realized vol (annualised)
—
σ per bar = 0.061337
Mean return (annualised)
—
μ per bar = 0.004193
Sharpe (rf=0)
—
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
15.46%
peak 0.05 → trough 0.04 over 2 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-rebecca-shepherd-finish-second-in-the-2026-makerfield-by-election/risk · same metrics, JSON