POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · WHERE WILL THE NEXT US-IRAN DIPLOMATIC MEETING HAPPEN?

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

YES · live
27.1¢
NO · live
72.9¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-the-next-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-be-in-switzerland-861 · fresh · feed 0s old
realized vol (ann.)
—
max drawdown
—
sharpe
—
ulcer index
—
RMS drawdown
pain index
—
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
—
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
—
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
—
implied (price-only)
bars used
0
insufficient
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
  • insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-the-next-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-be-in-switzerland-861/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
27.1¢
NO · live
72.9¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.1709 · σ=0.0394 · range [0.1340, 0.2595] · R²=0.000▲ RISING +46.96%σ EXTREME 23.04%LAST 0.23000.25950.22810.19680.16540.1340μ = 0.1709max 0.2595min 0.1340dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 23.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 27.1%NO 72.9%NO72.9%72.90¢ · odds 1/1.37
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.843 / 1.00 bits (84%) · high uncertainty
YES
27.1%27.1¢3.69×▬ +0.00pp
NO
72.9%72.9¢1.37×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=3,725 · μ=155.2 · σ=281.1 · CV=1.81BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=502585157731,030μ = 1551,03050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 3725bp moved · peak 1030bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5ms
▲YES mid
27.10¢ (27.10%)
▼NO mid
72.90¢ (72.90%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$35.2k
≋liquidity $
$30.6k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1709 · σ=0.0394 · range [0.1340, 0.2595] · R²=0.000▲ RISING +46.96%σ EXTREME 23.04%LAST 0.23000.25950.22810.19680.16540.1340μ = 0.1709max 0.2595min 0.1340dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 23.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=24 · μ=0.8315 · σ=0.0382 · range [0.7405, 0.8660] · R²=0.017▼ FALLING -9.13%σ NORMAL 4.59%LAST 0.76650.86600.83460.80330.77190.7405μ = 0.8315max 0.8660min 0.7405dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
24 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 76.65¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0039 · σ=0.0302 · skew=2.05 (right-skewed) · kurt=4.31 (leptokurtic (fat tails))13107301-4.38ppbin -4.38pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -4.38pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak1-2.83ppbin -2.83pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -2.83pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak6-1.29ppbin -1.29pp · n=6 · 46.2% peakbin -1.29pp · n=6 · 46.2% peak130.26ppbin 0.26pp · n=13 · 100.0% peakbin 0.26pp · n=13 · 100.0% peak11.80ppbin 1.80pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin 1.80pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak3.35pp4.89pp6.44pp7.98pp29.53ppbin 9.53pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakbin 9.53pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.98 · kurt=4.47 · near 8 / mid 13 / far 3 · OLS slope=0.83 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.82)
μ MEAN17.09¢95% CI: [15.55¢, 18.64¢]
σ STD DEV3.94ppσ² = 15.503 · CV = 23.04%
med MEDIAN15.65¢Q₁ 13.85¢ · Q₃ 20.75¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 12.55pp · IQR 6.90pp (1.349σ→5.31pp)
min 13.40¢Q₁ 13.85¢med 15.65¢Q₃ 20.75¢max 25.95¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.817right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.903mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.37
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.77
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.19
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.24 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.237within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.062lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.159strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.056fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.159
H = 1.159STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.237k=2+0.062k=3+0.032k=4-0.135k=5-0.0430+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.06)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.24 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.06)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1961527
SLUGwill-the-next-di…tzerland-861
CATEGORYWhere will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (73¢)
PRIMARY · YES27.10¢implied prob 27.10% · decimal odds 3.69×
COUNTER · NO72.90¢implied prob 72.90% · decimal odds 1.37×
27.10¢
72.90¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME35.20k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY30.58k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (73¢)|primary − counter| = 0.458 · entropy 0.843 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 27.1%NO 72.9%YES p̂27.1%H = 0.843 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES3.69×(27¢)NO1.37×(73¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.843 bits (84% of max) · high uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-06-30 00:00 UTC
15days
04hrs
49min
15.20 days·θ = 19.289 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 27.1%)
NO →$0.00(P = 72.9%)
current: $0.2710 · expected return per side: $0.73 on YES hit · $0.27 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+7.6dRESOLVESP projection · σ=3.94% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 19.289 pp/day
now15.20d left
19.289 pp/day×1.00
−25%11.40d left
22.274 pp/day×1.15
−50%7.60d left
27.279 pp/day×1.41
−75%3.80d left
38.579 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.52d left
60.999 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 10.30% · worst -5.15% · typical |Δ| 1.55%MILD BULLISH +7.35%BEST+10.30%1hWORST-5.15%2hTYPICAL |Δ|1.55%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+7.35%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.20% · Σ -1.60%US · 16-24 UTCμ +1.16% · Σ +9.30%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +7.35%+10.30%-2.25%10.30% · 1h10.30% · 1h10.30%1h★ BEST-5.15% · 2h-5.15% · 2h-5.15%2h▼ WORST-0.05% · 3h-0.05% · 3h-0.05%3h-0.90% · 4h-0.90% · 4h-0.90%4h-3.60% · 5h-3.60% · 5h-3.60%5h-0.65% · 6h-0.65% · 6h-0.65%6h0.05% · 7h0.05% · 7h0.05%7h-0.05% · 8h-0.05% · 8h-0.05%8h0.05% · 9h0.05% · 9h0.05%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h-1.90% · 11h-1.90% · 11h-1.90%11h0.65% · 12h0.65% · 12h0.65%12h-0.80% · 13h-0.80% · 13h-0.80%13h0.40% · 14h0.40% · 14h0.40%14h0.05% · 15h0.05% · 15h0.05%15h-0.65% · 16h-0.65% · 16h-0.65%16h0.15% · 17h0.15% · 17h0.15%17h0.25% · 18h0.25% · 18h0.25%18h-0.05% · 19h-0.05% · 19h-0.05%19h0.10% · 20h0.10% · 20h0.10%20h9.25% · 21h9.25% · 21h9.25%21h-0.80% · 22h-0.80% · 22h-0.80%22h1.05% · 23h1.05% · 23h1.05%23h-0.35% · 24h-0.35% · 24h-0.35%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+9.30%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 5BREADTH46% up · 50% down · 4% flat
11 up bars · 12 down · best 10.30% · worst -5.15% · typical |Δ| 1.552%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +6.40%FINAL+6.40%MAX DD-12.00%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+10.30%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0640 · peak 1.1030 · range [0.9706, 1.1030]1.10300.9706break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1030UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -12.00% · significant0%-12.00%▼ TROUGH -12.00%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -12.00%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -12.00%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 1.0640 (6.40%) · max DD -12.00% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-16.16 · σ=35.43UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 37.47 (+1.51σ vs μ)74.8537.430.00-37.43-74.85μ = -16.16-0.14-0.14-74.85-74.85-58.26-58.26-56.64-56.64-45.32-45.32-50.36-50.36-21.47-21.47-35.86-35.86-26.58-26.58-26.58-26.58-37.36-37.36-5.41-5.41-18.72-18.726.406.40-7.26-7.2637.0937.0936.3136.3140.4640.4637.4737.47v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 37.473 · range [-74.85, 40.46] · μ -16.162 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=168.3009 · σ=143.3146 · range [30.1471, 507.1548] · R²=0.019▼ FALLING -29.32%σ EXTREME 85.15%LAST 358.4411507.1548387.9029268.6510149.399130.1471μ = 168.3009max 507.1548min 30.1471dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 358.44% · range [30.15%, 507.15%] · μ 168.30% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.280 · σ=0.240MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.338 (-0.24σ vs μ)0.6110.3050.000-0.305-0.611μ = -0.280-0.322-0.322-0.261-0.2610.0430.0430.1220.1220.1330.133-0.063-0.063-0.437-0.437-0.574-0.574-0.611-0.611-0.582-0.582-0.479-0.479-0.592-0.592-0.326-0.326-0.121-0.121-0.228-0.228-0.029-0.029-0.312-0.312-0.335-0.335-0.338-0.338v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.338 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
52.1041
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.2996
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8082
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.8090
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3862
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.5062
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1320
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1945
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3664
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.3327
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1826
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.594 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.07e-3 · top T=2.18h (21.8%) · top-3 cover 49.7%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.8e-32.1e-31.4e-37.0e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.21e-3 · 9.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.21e-3 · 9.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.22e-4 · 6.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.22e-4 · 6.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.36e-4 · 1.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.36e-4 · 1.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.54e-4 · 3.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.54e-4 · 3.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.84e-4 · 3.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.84e-4 · 3.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.19e-3 · 9.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.19e-3 · 9.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.63e-3 · 12.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.63e-3 · 12.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.24e-3 · 9.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.24e-3 · 9.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.43e-4 · 2.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.43e-4 · 2.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.85e-4 · 4.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.85e-4 · 4.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.80e-3 · 21.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.80e-3 · 21.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.95e-3 · 15.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.95e-3 · 15.2% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.18h#2T=2.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 21.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.284e-2

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 15.2 d · σ/bar 3.212pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 61.36ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1771 · n = 25⚠ low confidence · n < 100
μ per bar
+0.306pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
3.212pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
15.74pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move15d
61.36pp
σ × √364.8264619444445
Terminal variancebinary
0.1771
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
23.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 3.65pp · ES₉₅ 4.68pp · method empirical · drift-correcteddrift +0.306pp/bar · quantised: no · median step 0.15pp · unique ratio 0.80⊘ disabled · n < 30
VaR 95%
3.65pp
5th percentile of Δp
ES 95%
4.68pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
48.4pp
peak 25.9¢ → trough 13.4¢
Median step
0.15pp
price bucket granularity
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
27.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
3.690
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+269
$100 wins $269
FractionalUK
2.69 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$269.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 27.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.843 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.843 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.88 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.46 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
50174065312417252990355657388789647251950341701201280132414544358846012362511
NO token ID
40597295349234840547532464756672185765582850389590076630443598277539903723181
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 19:10:24 UTC
Snapshot age
5ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 19:10:24 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
2412f7c55136ae095e52dbc5e9dbc53173341eeb10b32ce5c64b2ad44e2f10ce · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDSpain89.5¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?0¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,752.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,662.1HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.35

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.231000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1298.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.138
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.970
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-the-next-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-be-in-switzerland-861/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.3036863146.59bp0.42200034FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.54932913780.49bp0.68000060FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.80322424771.58bp0.96000088FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.212215813.21bp0.2120004FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0342378517.86bp0.00100042PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0342378517.86bp0.00100042PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 25 bars
Realized vol (annualised)
—
σ per bar = 0.165929
Mean return (annualised)
—
μ per bar = 0.016043
Sharpe (rf=0)
—
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
48.36%
peak 0.26 → trough 0.13 over 15 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-the-next-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-be-in-switzerland-861/risk · same metrics, JSON