TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “ecuador · te · ivoire” (14 markets)
Top terms: ecuadorteivoirescoreexactmarkets
- Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score41.5¢ YES · $51.5k 24h
- Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?29.5¢ YES · $1.45M 24h
- Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?33.5¢ YES · $278.2k 24h
- Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?37.5¢ YES · $544.4k 24h
- Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador?15.0¢ YES · $27.0k 24h
- Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador?15.5¢ YES · $50.4k 24h
- Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador?8.5¢ YES · $22.8k 24h
- Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador?6.5¢ YES · $25.1k 24h
- ★ Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)15.5¢ YES · $64.3k 24h
- Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.529.0¢ YES · $26.7k 24h
- Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.559.5¢ YES · $204.4k 24h
- Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.530.5¢ YES · $176.9k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score99.5¢ YES · $1.35M 24h
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half0.1¢ YES · $58.4k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.683 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.457 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.163 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -3.130 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -3.107 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.974 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.971 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.964 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-spread-away-1pt5 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
321
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-spread-away-1pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →