TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “airspace · closes · israel” (10 markets)
Top terms: airspaceclosesisraeliranclosepermanent
- Israel closes its airspace by June 14?11.9¢ YES · $498.7k 24h
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?19.2¢ YES · $367.2k 24h
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?33.5¢ YES · $157.3k 24h
- ★ Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?6.5¢ YES · $78.2k 24h
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?15.3¢ YES · $254.6k 24h
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?11.6¢ YES · $145.5k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?59.0¢ YES · $36.0k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?41.0¢ YES · $413.0k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?61.5¢ YES · $260.7k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?81.5¢ YES · $82.3k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -7.942 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -7.050 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.967 | 145 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.745 | 121 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.518 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.276 | 168 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.131 | 121 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.031 | 121 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-15-2026 · fresh · feed 0s oldrealized vol (ann.)
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max drawdown
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sharpe
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ulcer index
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RMS drawdown
pain index
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mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
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Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
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ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
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cond. drawdown
gain/pain
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Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
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upside/downside
roll spread
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implied (price-only)
bars used
0
insufficient
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
- insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-15-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →