POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · IRAN CLOSES ITS AIRSPACE BY...?

Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?

YES · live
29.5¢
NO · live
70.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-july-15-20260609184136055 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
855.60%
max drawdown
27.16%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
9.50%
RMS drawdown
pain index
5.63%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.88%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
15.51%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.00
upside/downside
roll spread
40.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
146
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-july-15-20260609184136055/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
29.5¢
NO · live
70.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.2560 · σ=0.1350 · range [0.1300, 0.6850] · R²=0.644▲ RISING +130.77%σ EXTREME 52.73%LAST 0.30000.68500.54630.40750.26880.1300μ = 0.2560max 0.6850min 0.1300dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.64μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 30.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 29.5%NO 70.5%NO70.5%70.50¢ · odds 1/1.42
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.875 / 1.00 bits (88%) · high uncertainty
YES
29.5%29.5¢3.39×▬ +0.00pp
NO
70.5%70.5¢1.42×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=10,700 · μ=445.8 · σ=767.5 · CV=1.72BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=2207251,4502,1752,900μ = 4462,90050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 10700bp moved · peak 2900bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4ms
▲YES mid
29.50¢ (29.50%)
▼NO mid
70.50¢ (70.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$46.7k
≋liquidity $
$7.8k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.2560 · σ=0.1350 · range [0.1300, 0.6850] · R²=0.644▲ RISING +130.77%σ EXTREME 52.73%LAST 0.30000.68500.54630.40750.26880.1300μ = 0.2560max 0.6850min 0.1300dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.64μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 30.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.7436 · σ=0.1350 · range [0.3150, 0.8700] · R²=0.648▼ FALLING -20.11%σ EXTREME 18.16%LAST 0.69500.87000.73120.59250.45380.3150μ = 0.7436max 0.8700min 0.3150dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.65μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 69.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0125 · σ=0.0794 · skew=-0.91 (left-skewed) · kurt=5.66 (leptokurtic (fat tails))16128401-26.25ppbin -26.25pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin -26.25pp · n=1 · 6.3% peak-20.75pp-15.25pp1-9.75ppbin -9.75pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin -9.75pp · n=1 · 6.3% peak1-4.25ppbin -4.25pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin -4.25pp · n=1 · 6.3% peak161.25ppbin 1.25pp · n=16 · 100.0% peakbin 1.25pp · n=16 · 100.0% peak46.75ppbin 6.75pp · n=4 · 25.0% peakbin 6.75pp · n=4 · 25.0% peak12.25pp17.75pp123.25ppbin 23.25pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin 23.25pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.63 · kurt=5.75 · near 7 / mid 16 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.87 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.40)
μ MEAN25.60¢95% CI: [20.31¢, 30.89¢]
σ STD DEV13.50ppσ² = 182.188 · CV = 52.73%
med MEDIAN18.50¢Q₁ 16.00¢ · Q₃ 34.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 55.50pp · IQR 18.50pp (1.349σ→18.21pp)
min 13.00¢Q₁ 16.00¢med 18.50¢Q₃ 34.50¢max 68.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.402right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.604leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.53
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.98
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.11
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.24 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.240within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.171lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.728strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+6.448significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.728
H = 0.728STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.240k=2-0.171k=3+0.135k=4-0.055k=5+0.0810+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.45)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.24 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.70very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.45)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2481463
SLUGwill-iran-close-…609184136055
CATEGORYIran closes its airspace by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (71¢)
PRIMARY · YES29.50¢implied prob 29.50% · decimal odds 3.39×
COUNTER · NO70.50¢implied prob 70.50% · decimal odds 1.42×
29.50¢
70.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME46.66k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY7.81k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (71¢)|primary − counter| = 0.410 · entropy 0.875 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 29.5%NO 70.5%YES p̂29.5%H = 0.875 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES3.39×(30¢)NO1.42×(71¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.875 bits (88% of max) · high uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-07-16 03:59 UTC
31days
07hrs
27min
31.31 days·θ = 66.125 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 29.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 70.5%)
current: $0.2950 · expected return per side: $0.71 on YES hit · $0.29 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+15.7dRESOLVESP projection · σ=13.50% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 66.125 pp/day
now31.31d left
66.125 pp/day×1.00
−25%23.48d left
76.354 pp/day×1.15
−50%15.66d left
93.515 pp/day×1.41
−75%7.83d left
132.250 pp/day×2.00
−90%3.13d left
209.105 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 26.00% · worst -29.00% · typical |Δ| 4.46%MILD BULLISH +17.00%BEST+26.00%22hWORST-29.00%23hTYPICAL |Δ|4.46%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+17.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.21% · Σ +1.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +1.31% · Σ +10.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ +1.81% · Σ +14.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +17.00%+55.50%0.00%3.50% · 1h3.50% · 1h3.50%1h1.00% · 2h1.00% · 2h1.00%2h-1.50% · 3h-1.50% · 3h-1.50%3h-0.50% · 4h-0.50% · 4h-0.50%4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h-1.00% · 7h-1.00% · 7h-1.00%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h4.00% · 9h4.00% · 9h4.00%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h-0.50% · 11h-0.50% · 11h-0.50%11h-0.50% · 12h-0.50% · 12h-0.50%12h-0.50% · 13h-0.50% · 13h-0.50%13h7.50% · 14h7.50% · 14h7.50%14h0.50% · 15h0.50% · 15h0.50%15h0.50% · 16h0.50% · 16h0.50%16h9.00% · 17h9.00% · 17h9.00%17h2.50% · 18h2.50% · 18h2.50%18h6.50% · 19h6.50% · 19h6.50%19h-2.00% · 20h-2.00% · 20h-2.00%20h1.00% · 21h1.00% · 21h1.00%21h26.00% · 22h26.00% · 22h26.00%22h★ BEST-29.00% · 23h-29.00% · 23h-29.00%23h▼ WORST-9.50% · 24h-9.50% · 24h-9.50%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+14.50%)RUNSup max 6 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 38% down · 17% flat
11 up bars · 9 down · best 26.00% · worst -29.00% · typical |Δ| 4.458%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +7.58%FINAL+7.58%MAX DD-35.75%RECOVERYONGOING · 2 barsMAX RUN-UP+67.42%UNDERWATER13/25 (52%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0758 · peak 1.6742 · range [1.0000, 1.6742]1.67421.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.6742UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -35.75% · severe0%-35.75%▼ TROUGH -35.75%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -35.75%bar 24-25 · 2 bars · ONGOING#2 -2.97%bar 4-9 · 6 bars · recovered#3 -2.00%bar 21-22 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsevere (max -35.75%)RECOVERYongoing · 2 barsTIME UNDER WATER52% of session · 13/25 bars
final equity 1.0758 (7.58%) · max DD -35.75% · time-under-water 13/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +16 / −3 (84% positive) · μ=30.41 · σ=41.65PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -6.02 (-0.87σ vs μ)111.1155.550.00-55.55-111.11μ = 30.4122.7422.74-35.63-35.63-73.99-73.9921.6621.6626.5826.5821.6621.6617.0017.0022.0022.0046.4746.4732.0032.0034.7634.7659.7259.7275.6375.63111.11111.1164.0064.0066.7266.7266.9266.924.414.41-6.02-6.02v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -6.018 · range [-73.99, 111.11] · μ 30.408 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=433.5614 · σ=477.8360 · range [59.1946, 1698.3451] · R²=0.577▲ RISING +957.98%σ EXTREME 110.21%LAST 1698.34511698.34511288.5575878.7698468.982259.1946μ = 433.5614max 1698.3451min 59.1946dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.58μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 1698.35% · range [59.19%, 1698.35%] · μ 433.56% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.196 · σ=0.182MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.288 (-0.50σ vs μ)0.4970.2480.000-0.248-0.497μ = -0.1960.2030.203-0.399-0.399-0.125-0.1250.0150.015-0.113-0.113-0.088-0.088-0.061-0.061-0.059-0.059-0.063-0.063-0.143-0.143-0.178-0.178-0.264-0.264-0.497-0.497-0.397-0.397-0.349-0.349-0.322-0.322-0.117-0.117-0.481-0.481-0.288-0.288v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.288 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
57.3528
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.2497
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6641
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.7475
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4155
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.3467
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1781
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (8 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7228
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0115
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.4402
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0147
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.257 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=7.77e-3 · top T=2.67h (19.3%) · top-3 cover 49.7%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.8e-21.3e-29.0e-34.5e-30.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.42e-3 · 4.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.42e-3 · 4.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.70e-3 · 4.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.70e-3 · 4.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.58e-3 · 1.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.58e-3 · 1.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.03e-3 · 5.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.03e-3 · 5.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.36e-3 · 4.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.36e-3 · 4.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.74e-2 · 18.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.74e-2 · 18.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.11e-2 · 11.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.11e-2 · 11.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.14e-3 · 8.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.14e-3 · 8.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.80e-2 · 19.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.80e-2 · 19.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.79e-3 · 10.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.79e-3 · 10.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.32e-3 · 5.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.32e-3 · 5.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.54e-3 · 4.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.54e-3 · 4.9% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=4.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 19.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 9.327e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (146 bars · effective 1753297 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 31.3 d · σ/bar 0.646pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 17.72ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2080 · n = 146✓ n = 146
μ per bar
-0.076pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.646pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
3.17pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move31d
17.72pp
σ × √751.4522627777778
Terminal variancebinary
0.2080
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
29.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 1.14pp · ES₉₅ 1.41pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.076pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 6.00pp · unique ratio 0.02⚠ low confidence · n < 200
VaR 95%
1.14pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
1.41pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
27.2pp
peak 40.5¢ → trough 29.5¢
Median step
6.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
29.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
3.390
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+239
$100 wins $239
FractionalUK
2.39 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$238.98
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 29.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.875 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.875 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.76 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.50 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
11684979467751025207103399528820232538997565744255347281258399610606202316552
NO token ID
79397523231108831190467254591803677479140129908827484470904938261456846995752
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 20:31:51 UTC
Snapshot age
4ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 20:31:51 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
a3acd6e219356abcb2d5ae4a039d610f0a34f01d7f312a202cedcabf35af318a · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Iran closes its airspace by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.305000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
327.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.505
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.141
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-july-15-20260609184136055/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.3528111567.58bp0.3700006FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.66312611741.84bp0.99000032FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.72638413815.88bp0.99000032PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.2429152035.57bp0.2100009FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0515068311.29bp0.01000027PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0515068311.29bp0.01000027PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 146 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
2455.76%
σ per bar = 0.018546
Mean return (annualised)
-383200.33%
μ per bar = -0.002186
Sharpe (rf=0)
-156.04
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
27.16%
peak 0.41 → trough 0.29 over 143 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-july-15-20260609184136055/risk · same metrics, JSON