TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “traffic · returns · normal” (8 markets)

Top terms: trafficreturnsnormalstraithormuzrussia

★ Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?9.5¢ YES · $308.3k 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?4.4¢ YES · $32.1k 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?82.0¢ YES · $200.7k 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?14.5¢ YES · $931.4k 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?36.5¢ YES · $68.2k 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?49.5¢ YES · $352.7k 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?0.3¢ YES · $1.21M 24h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?5.9¢ YES · $205.5k 24h

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (6 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peer	t-stat	n	Verdict
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	-0.835	169	no rejection · independent
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	-0.829	169	no rejection · independent
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	-0.755	169	no rejection · independent
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	-0.343	169	no rejection · independent
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	-0.314	169	no rejection · independent
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	-0.277	169	no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · putin-out-before-2027 · fresh · feed 0s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 11.76%

realized vol (ann.)

66.21%

max drawdown

9.52%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

8.75%

RMS drawdown

pain index

8.05%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

9.52%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

2.00

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

2.00

upside/downside

roll spread

1.1 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

2000

store

spread

—

24h Δ

11.76%

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%

24h change +11.76%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-putin-out-before-2027/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →