TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “traffic · returns · normal” (8 markets)
Top terms: trafficreturnsnormalstraithormuzrussia
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?9.5¢ YES · $313.9k 24h
- ★ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?4.5¢ YES · $28.4k 24h
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?82.5¢ YES · $203.6k 24h
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?19.5¢ YES · $895.8k 24h
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?37.0¢ YES · $85.4k 24h
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?50.5¢ YES · $290.9k 24h
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?0.3¢ YES · $839.6k 24h
- US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?6.3¢ YES · $193.8k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (6 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -4.342 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -2.935 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.753 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.670 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.924 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.878 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by-june-30-2026 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
7.69%
max drawdown
1.12%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.65%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.37%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.12%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
150
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by-june-30-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →