TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “traffic · returns · normal” (8 markets)

Top terms: trafficreturnsnormalstraithormuzrussia

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?9.5¢ YES · $363.3k 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?4.7¢ YES · $53.5k 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?85.0¢ YES · $179.6k 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?21.0¢ YES · $974.9k 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?42.5¢ YES · $45.7k 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?56.5¢ YES · $363.4k 24h
★ Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?0.4¢ YES · $1.17M 24h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?5.9¢ YES · $213.0k 24h

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (6 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peer	t-stat	n	Verdict
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	-4.657	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	-3.180	169	no rejection · independent
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	-3.028	169	no rejection · independent
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	-3.001	169	no rejection · independent
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	-2.266	169	no rejection · independent
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	-1.949	169	no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-june-15 · fresh · feed 17s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

10.47%

max drawdown

44.44%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

26.78%

RMS drawdown

pain index

20.37%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

44.44%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.00

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.00

upside/downside

roll spread

0.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

2000

store

spread

—

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-june-15/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →