POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · NETHERLANDS VS. JAPAN - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan?

YES · live
1.1¢
NO · live
98.9¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-3 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
44.03%
max drawdown
22.22%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
17.51%
RMS drawdown
pain index
14.65%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
22.22%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.33
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.33
upside/downside
roll spread
38.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
92
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-3/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
1.1¢
NO · live
98.9¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0170 · σ=0.0059 · range [0.0080, 0.0245] · R²=0.659▼ FALLING -46.94%σ EXTREME 34.77%LAST 0.01300.02450.02040.01630.01210.0080μ = 0.0170max 0.0245min 0.0080dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.66μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 1.30¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 1.1%NO 98.9%NO98.9%98.85¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.091 / 1.00 bits (9%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
1.1%1.1¢86.96×▬ +0.00pp
NO
98.9%98.9¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=435 · μ=18.1 · σ=21.9 · CV=1.21BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=16023456890μ = 189050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 435bp moved · peak 90bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4ms
▲YES mid
1.15¢ (1.15%)
▼NO mid
98.85¢ (98.85%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$43.8k
≋liquidity $
$50.7k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0170 · σ=0.0059 · range [0.0080, 0.0245] · R²=0.659▼ FALLING -46.94%σ EXTREME 34.77%LAST 0.01300.02450.02040.01630.01210.0080μ = 0.0170max 0.0245min 0.0080dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.66μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 1.30¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9830 · σ=0.0059 · range [0.9755, 0.9920] · R²=0.659▲ RISING +1.18%σ LOW 0.60%LAST 0.98700.99200.98790.98380.97960.9755μ = 0.9830max 0.9920min 0.9755dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.66μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 98.70¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0004 · σ=0.0026 · skew=-1.26 (left-skewed) · kurt=2.11 (leptokurtic (fat tails))864201-0.83ppbin -0.83pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -0.83pp · n=1 · 12.5% peak-0.69pp1-0.55ppbin -0.55pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -0.55pp · n=1 · 12.5% peak-0.41pp3-0.27ppbin -0.27pp · n=3 · 37.5% peakbin -0.27pp · n=3 · 37.5% peak3-0.13ppbin -0.13pp · n=3 · 37.5% peakbin -0.13pp · n=3 · 37.5% peak80.01ppbin 0.01pp · n=8 · 100.0% peakbin 0.01pp · n=8 · 100.0% peak70.15ppbin 0.15pp · n=7 · 87.5% peakbin 0.15pp · n=7 · 87.5% peak0.29pp10.43ppbin 0.43pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 0.43pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-1.16 · kurt=2.26 · near 13 / mid 10 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.96 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.79)
μ MEAN1.70¢95% CI: [1.47¢, 1.94¢]
σ STD DEV0.59ppσ² = 0.351 · CV = 34.77%
med MEDIAN1.50¢Q₁ 1.20¢ · Q₃ 2.30¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.65pp · IQR 1.10pp (1.349σ→0.80pp)
min 0.80¢Q₁ 1.20¢med 1.50¢Q₃ 2.30¢max 2.45¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.090approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.794platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.34
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.73
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.78
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.140within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.113lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.612persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-6.666significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.612
H = 0.612PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.140k=2+0.113k=3+0.027k=4-0.252k=5-0.1910+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.67)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.37high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.67)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322436
SLUGfifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-3
CATEGORYNetherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (99¢)
PRIMARY · YES1.15¢implied prob 1.15% · decimal odds 86.96×
COUNTER · NO98.85¢implied prob 98.85% · decimal odds 1.01×
1.15¢
98.85¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME43.80k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY50.73k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.977 · entropy 0.091 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 1.1%NO 98.9%YES p̂1.1%H = 0.091 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES86.96×(1¢)NO1.01×(99¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.091 bits (9% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.50% · worst -0.90% · typical |Δ| 0.18%BEARISH SESSION -1.15%BEST+0.50%21hWORST-0.90%12hTYPICAL |Δ|0.18%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.15%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.30%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.16% · Σ -1.25%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.20%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.15%+0.00%-1.65%-0.10% · 1h-0.10% · 1h-0.10%1h-0.05% · 2h-0.05% · 2h-0.05%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h-0.15% · 6h-0.15% · 6h-0.15%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.20% · 8h0.20% · 8h0.20%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h-0.15% · 10h-0.15% · 10h-0.15%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-0.90% · 12h-0.90% · 12h-0.90%12h▼ WORST-0.20% · 13h-0.20% · 13h-0.20%13h-0.30% · 14h-0.30% · 14h-0.30%14h0.10% · 15h0.10% · 15h0.10%15h0.10% · 16h0.10% · 16h0.10%16h0.20% · 17h0.20% · 17h0.20%17h0.10% · 18h0.10% · 18h0.10%18h0.20% · 19h0.20% · 19h0.20%19h-0.60% · 20h-0.60% · 20h-0.60%20h0.50% · 21h0.50% · 21h0.50%21h★ BEST0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h-0.30% · 23h-0.30% · 23h-0.30%23h0.20% · 24h0.20% · 24h0.20%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.20%)RUNSup max 5 · down max 3BREADTH33% up · 38% down · 29% flat
8 up bars · 9 down · best 0.50% · worst -0.90% · typical |Δ| 0.181%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-1.15%)FINAL-1.15%MAX DD-1.64%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9885 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9836, 1.0000]1.00000.9836break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.64% · moderate0%-1.64%▼ TROUGH -1.64%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -1.64%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.64%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9885 (-1.15%) · max DD -1.64% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −11 (32% positive) · μ=-19.14 · σ=33.07UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 0.00 (+0.58σ vs μ)73.9937.000.00-37.00-73.99μ = -19.14-73.99-73.99-51.52-51.527.007.007.007.00-12.08-12.08-12.08-12.08-34.19-34.19-42.90-42.90-72.11-72.11-64.13-64.13-49.33-49.33-38.21-38.210.000.0033.5133.515.105.1021.3321.3317.0017.00-4.03-4.030.000.00v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.000 · range [-73.99, 33.51] · μ -19.139 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=24.9103 · σ=12.2023 · range [5.6675, 38.2099] · R²=0.524▲ RISING +524.50%σ EXTREME 48.99%LAST 36.967038.209930.074321.938713.80315.6675μ = 24.9103max 38.2099min 5.6675dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.52μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 36.97% · range [5.67%, 38.21%] · μ 24.91% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −12 (32% positive) · μ=-0.150 · σ=0.276MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.615 (-1.68σ vs μ)0.6150.3080.000-0.308-0.615μ = -0.1500.0000.000-0.333-0.3330.0190.019-0.008-0.0080.0070.0070.0070.007-0.017-0.017-0.047-0.047-0.266-0.266-0.300-0.300-0.111-0.1110.1950.1950.4000.4000.0130.013-0.129-0.129-0.537-0.537-0.591-0.591-0.533-0.533-0.615-0.615v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.615 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
15.8346
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0004
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.0935
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5379
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.4119
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5753
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.7395
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4596
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (8 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7158
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0121
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.1337
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8937
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.959 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=8.30e-6 · top T=2.67h (24.8%) · top-3 cover 52.1%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.5e-51.9e-51.2e-56.2e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.29e-6 · 5.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.29e-6 · 5.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.10e-5 · 11.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.10e-5 · 11.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.14e-5 · 11.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.14e-5 · 11.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.13e-6 · 6.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.13e-6 · 6.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.49e-8 · 0.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.49e-8 · 0.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.51e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.51e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.12e-5 · 11.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.12e-5 · 11.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.04e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.04e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.47e-5 · 24.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.47e-5 · 24.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.87e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.87e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.59e-6 · 8.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.59e-6 · 8.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.58e-5 · 15.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.58e-5 · 15.9% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=2.00h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 24.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 9.954e-5

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.282pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.69ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0128 · n = 25⚠ low confidence · n < 100
μ per bar
-0.048pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.282pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
1.38pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.69pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0128
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
1.3¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.51pp · ES₉₅ 0.70pp · method empirical · drift-correcteddrift -0.048pp/bar · quantised: no · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.52⊘ disabled · n < 30
VaR 95%
0.51pp
5th percentile of Δp
ES 95%
0.70pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
67.3pp
peak 2.5¢ → trough 0.8¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
1.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
86.957
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+8596
$100 wins $8596
FractionalUK
85.96 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$8595.65
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 1.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.091 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.091 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
6.44 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.02 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
114162661820336543843801369295048246445861434435015439414344516573795460941175
NO token ID
17872280486603725960558074859021313439966971045649900643706041140238805574205
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 20:15:34 UTC
Snapshot age
4ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 20:15:34 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
b40d56d7a7a14b2ff3d1435881d3fe17f43742e10eefb66b8d09e7330d531aaf · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDSpain89.9¢HL PREDUruguay65.4¢POLYMARKETWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?45¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?0¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,795HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,662.9HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.4

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Netherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.014000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1428.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.901
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.741
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-3/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.163537106812.03bp0.90000019FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.638140445814.03bp0.95000024FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.926867652047.93bp0.99400035FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.012713919.07bp0.0080002PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.012713919.07bp0.0080002PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.012713919.07bp0.0080002PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 25 bars
Realized vol (annualised)
—
σ per bar = 0.212203
Mean return (annualised)
—
μ per bar = -0.026405
Sharpe (rf=0)
—
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
67.35%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.01 over 14 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-3/risk · same metrics, JSON