TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “netherlands · japan · score” (43 markets)
Top terms: netherlandsjapanscoreexactmarketshalftime
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners32.0¢ YES · $35.0k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners18.5¢ YES · $88.3k 24h
- Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?16.5¢ YES · $1.33M 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan?0.1¢ YES · $167.5k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan?0.1¢ YES · $161.8k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan?0.1¢ YES · $66.7k 24h
- ★ Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan?0.1¢ YES · $44.4k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan?0.5¢ YES · $247.9k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan?0.5¢ YES · $194.8k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan?0.5¢ YES · $222.9k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan?0.1¢ YES · $77.7k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan?0.5¢ YES · $158.3k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan?59.0¢ YES · $320.2k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan?17.6¢ YES · $158.2k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan?3.0¢ YES · $97.2k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan?0.1¢ YES · $121.3k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan?23.2¢ YES · $119.5k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan?6.5¢ YES · $134.7k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan?1.1¢ YES · $182.7k 24h
- Exact Score: Any Other Score?8.9¢ YES · $78.9k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.50.1¢ YES · $150.0k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.50.1¢ YES · $31.3k 24h
- Netherlands to score first vs. Japan?100.0¢ YES · $37.1k 24h
- Japan leading at halftime?0.1¢ YES · $150.8k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime?100.0¢ YES · $155.9k 24h
- Netherlands leading at halftime?0.1¢ YES · $168.3k 24h
- Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?1.8¢ YES · $4.04M 24h
- Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?81.5¢ YES · $15.82M 24h
- Spread: Japan (-1.5)0.5¢ YES · $132.2k 24h
- Spread: Japan (-2.5)0.3¢ YES · $132.3k 24h
- Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)19.0¢ YES · $873.5k 24h
- Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)5.0¢ YES · $152.7k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.599.5¢ YES · $277.9k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.531.0¢ YES · $51.3k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5100.0¢ YES · $39.6k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.599.5¢ YES · $45.2k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5100.0¢ YES · $692.4k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.599.5¢ YES · $784.6k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5100.0¢ YES · $2.36M 24h
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.556.5¢ YES · $283.9k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.58.0¢ YES · $345.1k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.53.5¢ YES · $105.4k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.50.8¢ YES · $28.5k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.964 | 97 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.613 | 97 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.260 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.987 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.387 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.204 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.928 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.501 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-3 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
110.38%
max drawdown
96.88%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
44.32%
RMS drawdown
pain index
32.07%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
96.88%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.43
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.43
upside/downside
roll spread
70.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
381
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-3/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →