TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “airspace · closes · iran” (11 markets)
Top terms: airspaceclosesirancloseisraeljune
- Israel closes its airspace by June 14?0.5¢ YES · $675.1k 24h
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?0.8¢ YES · $534.5k 24h
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?7.5¢ YES · $260.0k 24h
- Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?9.0¢ YES · $25.8k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?32.0¢ YES · $36.4k 24h
- ★ Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?39.5¢ YES · $48.4k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?15.5¢ YES · $50.3k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?21.5¢ YES · $34.3k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?1.8¢ YES · $1.02M 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?1.7¢ YES · $434.8k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?11.0¢ YES · $157.9k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -7.900 | 125 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -6.826 | 125 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -6.413 | 125 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.240 | 125 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.235 | 125 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.383 | 125 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.238 | 125 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.147 | 125 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-december-31-20260609184136058 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
660.13%
max drawdown
39.47%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
25.92%
RMS drawdown
pain index
22.58%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
39.47%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.53
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.53
upside/downside
roll spread
7.5 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
760
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-december-31-20260609184136058/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →