TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “airspace · closes · iran” (12 markets)
Top terms: airspaceclosesirancloseisraelwithdraws
- Israel closes its airspace by June 14?0.2¢ YES · $637.4k 24h
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?0.8¢ YES · $504.9k 24h
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?5.5¢ YES · $242.0k 24h
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?25.5¢ YES · $28.2k 24h
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?11.0¢ YES · $27.9k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?30.0¢ YES · $36.5k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?35.0¢ YES · $48.1k 24h
- ★ Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?14.0¢ YES · $50.2k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?21.0¢ YES · $31.7k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?2.3¢ YES · $915.4k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?4.5¢ YES · $411.5k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?12.0¢ YES · $155.2k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -7.704 | 124 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -6.814 | 123 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -6.679 | 123 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -6.140 | 124 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.112 | 124 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.479 | 124 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.372 | 124 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.104 | 124 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-july-15-20260609184136055 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
916.01%
max drawdown
65.43%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
32.70%
RMS drawdown
pain index
26.19%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
54.64%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.12
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.12
upside/downside
roll spread
40.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
445
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-july-15-20260609184136055/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →