TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “airspace · closes · iran” (13 markets)
Top terms: airspaceclosesiranisraelclosepermanent
- Israel closes its airspace by June 14?5.5¢ YES · $596.9k 24h
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?8.3¢ YES · $444.9k 24h
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?24.0¢ YES · $188.6k 24h
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?5.8¢ YES · $75.0k 24h
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?15.3¢ YES · $251.3k 24h
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?9.8¢ YES · $144.7k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?41.5¢ YES · $34.8k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?50.5¢ YES · $46.6k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?29.5¢ YES · $46.7k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?39.5¢ YES · $29.2k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?21.1¢ YES · $818.0k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?24.6¢ YES · $325.7k 24h
- ★ Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?34.5¢ YES · $136.4k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -7.361 | 122 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -6.054 | 122 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.699 | 122 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.480 | 122 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.843 | 122 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.776 | 122 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.604 | 122 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.458 | 122 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-june-30-20260609184136054 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
391.21%
max drawdown
10.39%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
5.05%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.84%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
10.39%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.13
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.13
upside/downside
roll spread
13.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
147
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-june-30-20260609184136054/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →