TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “iran · us · diplomatic” (23 markets)
Top terms: iranusdiplomaticmeetingdealpermanent
- US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?83.5¢ YES · $47.3k 24h
- US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?68.5¢ YES · $37.8k 24h
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?59.5¢ YES · $662.3k 24h
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? 1.1¢ YES · $112.9k 24h
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?3.4¢ YES · $124.5k 24h
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?6.5¢ YES · $23.6k 24h
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?30.5¢ YES · $50.5k 24h
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?60.5¢ YES · $164.0k 24h
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?66.5¢ YES · $107.2k 24h
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?82.5¢ YES · $283.6k 24h
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?54.5¢ YES · $299.1k 24h
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?16.2¢ YES · $6.16M 24h
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?41.5¢ YES · $1.84M 24h
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?75.5¢ YES · $49.7k 24h
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?37.1¢ YES · $39.5k 24h
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?6.3¢ YES · $63.4k 24h
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?0.4¢ YES · $26.4k 24h
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?34.1¢ YES · $26.7k 24h
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?8.3¢ YES · $27.1k 24h
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?13.2¢ YES · $33.4k 24h
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?0.4¢ YES · $23.7k 24h
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?0.1¢ YES · $27.5k 24h
- ★ Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?15.5¢ YES · $216.3k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.921 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.730 | 61 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.706 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.652 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.388 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.312 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -3.244 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -3.186 | 45 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027 · fresh · feed 13s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
41.87%
max drawdown
6.45%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
4.20%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.74%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
6.45%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →