TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “germany · cura · ao” (36 markets)
Top terms: germanycuraaoscoreexactmarkets
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score30.5¢ YES · $84.3k 24h
- Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?4.0¢ YES · $1.01M 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao?1.3¢ YES · $45.1k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao?0.9¢ YES · $56.3k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao?0.3¢ YES · $29.4k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao?4.7¢ YES · $38.8k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao?1.7¢ YES · $44.2k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Curaçao?0.9¢ YES · $32.8k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao?9.5¢ YES · $102.2k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao?4.0¢ YES · $60.0k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao?0.8¢ YES · $26.5k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao?15.5¢ YES · $140.3k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao?4.9¢ YES · $57.2k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao?1.1¢ YES · $23.8k 24h
- Exact Score: Any Other Score?57.5¢ YES · $26.9k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.562.5¢ YES · $31.8k 24h
- Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?94.2¢ YES · $1.43M 24h
- Curaçao leading at halftime?1.7¢ YES · $37.3k 24h
- Germany leading at halftime?84.5¢ YES · $185.6k 24h
- Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?2.1¢ YES · $3.90M 24h
- Spread: Germany (-1.5)85.5¢ YES · $63.2k 24h
- Spread: Germany (-2.5)71.5¢ YES · $192.3k 24h
- Spread: Germany (-3.5)51.5¢ YES · $853.0k 24h
- Spread: Germany (-4.5)32.5¢ YES · $40.3k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.530.0¢ YES · $55.0k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.597.9¢ YES · $95.9k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.591.0¢ YES · $92.3k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.578.5¢ YES · $99.6k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.558.0¢ YES · $55.3k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.598.7¢ YES · $43.2k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.594.5¢ YES · $68.2k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.583.5¢ YES · $141.7k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.565.5¢ YES · $107.8k 24h
- ★ Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.544.5¢ YES · $498.3k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.527.5¢ YES · $32.9k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score54.5¢ YES · $131.4k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -4.769 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.455 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.385 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.342 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.323 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.320 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.307 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.302 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-total-4pt5 · fresh · feed 3s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
51.28%
max drawdown
2.20%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.66%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.20%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.20%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.50
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.50
upside/downside
roll spread
0.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-total-4pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →