TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “germany · cura · ao” (57 markets)

Top terms: germanycuraaoscoreexactmarkets

Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners8.0¢ YES · $67.5k 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners76.5¢ YES · $33.5k 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners24.0¢ YES · $29.0k 24h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?0.1¢ YES · $5.20M 24h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $111.7k 24h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $162.9k 24h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $158.6k 24h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $51.4k 24h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $119.1k 24h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $160.4k 24h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $97.2k 24h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 3 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $31.4k 24h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $244.3k 24h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $199.4k 24h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $106.4k 24h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $38.4k 24h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $398.7k 24h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $297.4k 24h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $130.0k 24h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $107.2k 24h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?99.8¢ YES · $235.2k 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 1.50.1¢ YES · $27.3k 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5100.0¢ YES · $38.2k 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5100.0¢ YES · $464.8k 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5100.0¢ YES · $168.6k 24h
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany?0.1¢ YES · $53.2k 24h
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao?100.0¢ YES · $35.9k 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first?0.1¢ YES · $37.4k 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?100.0¢ YES · $5.64M 24h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals99.6¢ YES · $44.7k 24h
Curaçao leading at halftime?0.1¢ YES · $122.2k 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime?0.1¢ YES · $99.6k 24h
Germany leading at halftime?100.0¢ YES · $529.6k 24h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?0.1¢ YES · $11.26M 24h
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5)0.1¢ YES · $97.7k 24h
Spread: Germany (-1.5)100.0¢ YES · $450.4k 24h
Spread: Germany (-2.5)100.0¢ YES · $788.9k 24h
Spread: Germany (-3.5)100.0¢ YES · $6.02M 24h
Spread: Germany (-4.5)99.5¢ YES · $886.2k 24h
Spread: Germany (-5.5)99.5¢ YES · $1.24M 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5100.0¢ YES · $136.9k 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.57.5¢ YES · $112.6k 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5100.0¢ YES · $61.5k 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5100.0¢ YES · $86.3k 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5100.0¢ YES · $114.7k 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5100.0¢ YES · $178.2k 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5100.0¢ YES · $145.2k 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5100.0¢ YES · $158.1k 24h
★ Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5100.0¢ YES · $735.0k 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5100.0¢ YES · $575.6k 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5100.0¢ YES · $1.49M 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5100.0¢ YES · $732.2k 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.599.5¢ YES · $359.1k 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.556.5¢ YES · $324.6k 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.518.5¢ YES · $104.9k 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.54.0¢ YES · $156.7k 24h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners45.5¢ YES · $40.5k 24h

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peer	t-stat	n	Verdict
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	-5.645	94	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	-5.459	94	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	-4.859	94	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	-4.402	168	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao?	-1.429	168	no rejection · independent
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao?	-0.841	168	no rejection · independent
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao?	-0.068	168	no rejection · independent
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Curaçao?	0.009	168	no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-total-2pt5 · fresh · feed 0s old

realized vol (ann.)

—

max drawdown

—

sharpe

—

ulcer index

—

RMS drawdown

pain index

—

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

—

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

—

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

—

upside/downside

roll spread

—

implied (price-only)

bars used

insufficient

spread

—

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%

insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-total-2pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →